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Opinion & Analysis

2017 The Players Championship: Odds, Picks, and Prop Bets

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The PGA Tour’s “fifth major,” The Players Championship, has arrived. By all accounts, the Players has the strongest field of the year. Forty-eight of the world’s top-50 players will be in attendance, including the top-5 ranked golfers in the world for the first time in 2017.

Defending Players champion Jason Day looks to hold off Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth to become the first player to repeat at TPC Sawgrass. Also in the field is Sergio Garcia, who will be making his first start since winning the Masters. He hopes to add to his streak of 14 made cuts at The Players.

  • Tournament Record: 264 by Greg Norman in 1994
  • 18-Hole Record: 63 shared by Fred Couples (1992), Greg Norman (1994), Roberto Castro (2013), Martin Kaymer (2014), Jason Day (2016), and Colt Knost (2016).

The Course

The Players Championship returns to TPC Sawgrass this week for the 36th time. The par-72 Stadium Course, playing at 7,189 yards, is a challenge to all parts of the game. The short game and driving will be both be put to the test, but the Stadium Course will challenge the mental game most of all.

There aren’t many places on the course where the players can lose focus without being severely punished. The architect, Pete Dye, is a master of misdirection and that’s perfectly displayed this week. Even the holes that seem to be straight forward have small twists that can get in a player’s head. There are several tee boxes that aim directly at trouble, water hazards that gradually jut into fairways, and tough club choices off the tee.

Featured Holes

No. 12, 358 yards, Par 4: The new No. 12 is a perfect risk-reward hole; the redesign has made it a drivable par-4 with the green and fairway sloped toward water. Laying up of the tee requires an accurate shot with several pot bunkers and a long fairway bunker protecting the landing area. It’ll take a lot of guts to go for it off with the driver, but it may be necessary coming down the stretch.

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No. 17, 137 yards, Par 3: Not much needs to be said about the Island Green. It’s among the most famous golf holes in the world, and it has been a source of endless entertainment. Thirty-six balls found the water here last year, which is great for making the fans feel good about their game. It’s also the sight of memorable heroics like Rickie Fowler’s birdie en route to his Players Championship victory in 2015.

Odds

Past Champs in the field:

  • Adam Scott +4000
  • Phil Mickelson +5000
  • Sergio Garcia +1800
  • Henrik Stenson +3300
  • KJ Choi +35000
  • Matt Kuchar +5000
  • Martin Kaymer +5500
  • Rickie Fowler +2000
  • Jason Day +2200

Favorites:

  • Dustin Johnson +700
  • Rory McIlroy +1000
  • Jordan Spieth +1400
  • Sergio Garcia +1800
  • Hideki Matsuyama +2000
  • Jon Rahm +2000
  • Rickie Fowler +2000
  • Justin Rose +2500
  • Justin Thomas +2800
  • Brooks Koepka +3300

Picks

My Pick: Dustin Johnson (+700) may not have won last week, but he shook off the rust on the weekend with two 67’s to finish T2, so I’m sticking with him. Outside of his freak injury, he’s been on an incredible run. Since the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February, Dustin Johnson has only been beaten by three players; he’s finished 3-1-1-1-T2 in his last five starts. It’d be a mistake to pick against anyone in that kind of form.

Value Pick: It’s not often you get Justin Rose at +2500, so I’m taking him as my value pick this week. He hasn’t won yet this year, but he has been playing great golf and is due for a W. His game is as well rounded as anyone’s, and he ranks 9thin Shots Gained: Total. His biggest question mark is always the putter. If he can manage to sink the short ones (Rose ranks 162nd in putting from inside 10 feet), he should be in contention on Sunday.

Long Shot: I’m going with Jason Dufner (+8000) as my dark horse this week. He doesn’t have a great record at the Stadium course but lately, he’s been around the top of the leaderboard too often to ignore. He has eight top-25s in his last nine starts and has been a birdie machine. He ranks 35th in Strokes Gained: Putting and 26th in birdie or better percentage.

Props

Balls in the water on #17 – I’m going with 41-50 balls in the water (+325) this week. The tournament average is 39.5 over the last 14 years. The 2016 total fell just short of that with 36, so I’m hoping it will even itself out this year.

Hole-in-One on #17 (Yes, +350, No -500) – I’d usually stay away from this since it’s specific to one hole, but it’s the Island Green at Sawgrass so I can’t help myself. I’m going with “Yes” this week despite the track record. There have only been seven aces here since it began hosting in 1982, but with this kind of field on a 137-yard hole, it seems hard to believe nobody will hole out.

You can follow me on Twitter and let me know who you’re picking this week.

Twitter @NickRitaccoGolf

1 Comment

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  1. TCJ

    May 10, 2017 at 3:23 pm

    First!

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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