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Opinion & Analysis

PGA Tour Players on the Rise and the Decline in 2018

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At the end of each season, I compile data on every PGA Tour player and then analyze which are on the rise and the decline for the upcoming season. There are a number of variables that historically are quality indicators of a golfer’s future performance such as age, club speed, adjusted scoring average, etc. I tend to focus on what I call The Cornerstones of the Game, however, and these Cornerstones include:

  • Driving Effectiveness
  • Red Zone Play (approach shots from 175-225 yards)
  • Short Game shots (from 10-20 yards)
  • Putting (5-15 feet)
  • Ball Speed

All that is needed to execute the Cornerstones of the Game is for the player to be in the top-half on the PGA Tour in each metric. That’s the beauty of the concept; a player does not need to be dominant in each metric. He can simply be average at each metric and it increases his likelihood of not only having a great season, but recording a PGA Tour victory. I can then use the Cornerstones concept to more accurately project players on the rise for the following season.

When I did the projections of who would rise in the 2016-2017 season, two of my risers were Adam Hadwin and Marc Leishman, both of which executed all of the cornerstones in the prior season. Both earned a victory on Tour last season, both made the Tour Championship, and they combined for more than $9.3 million in earnings. In the 2016-2017 season, there were nine players that executed each of the Cornerstones, and they made an average of $4.6 million. The list included Justin Thomas, the winner of the FedEx Cup, the PGA Championship, and PGA Tour Player of the Year award.

Here are the players that I project to be on the rise for the 2017-2018 season due to their strong performance in the Cornerstones of the Game.

Players on the Rise

Martin Laird

Martin_Laird_Rich_Hunt

Laird executed each of the Cornerstones of the game and got off to a great start in 2016-2017 before tapering off in the second half of the season. That tapering off would usually make me a little averse to projecting him to rise, but he has shown the ability to execute each of the Cornerstones. He’s also is in that prime age (he’s 34) when Tour players make their most money.

Branden Grace

Branden_Grace_Rich_Hunt

Grace also executed each of the cornerstones of the game in 2016-2017, and he’s only 29. His biggest issue is that, despite putting well from 5-15 feet, he was fourth-worst putter on the PGA Tour from 3-5 feet. Putting from 3-5 feet is often volatile, however, meaning that a player can greatly improve or greatly regress from 3-5 feet from one season to the next. Given Grace’s age, skill, and aggressive strategy off the tee, I can see him finally getting the major championship victory that has alluded him in the past.

Bryson DeChambeau

Bryson_Dechambeau_Rich_Hunt

DeChambeau struggled for much of the past season. He had a streak of five missed cuts and later missed eight cuts in a row. Many started to blame his single-length iron concept, but his iron play was not the problem. In fact, he was very good from where it counts most; the Red Zone, or shots from 175-225 yards. He’s also quite long off the tee and very proficient with his driver. His major issue was putting.

Here’s a chart showing Dechambeau’s Putts Gained by event. The dotted black line is the trend line, and it shows a nice upward progression in his putting. Once DeChambeau’s putting started to become serviceable, he started making more money and earned his first PGA Tour victory.

Dechambeau_putting

The big key here is if DeChambeau sticks with his current putting method. There is some evidence that points to changing equipment and methodology actually hurting putting performance compared to sticking to the same putter and technique. If he can stick to one putter and method and get his Yellow Zone play back to his 2015-2016 levels, he will be in for a huge season.

Brandon Hagy

Brandon_Hagy_Rich_Hunt

Hagy was the top ball-speed performer last year, and he also showed a development in the rest of his game. Shots from 10-20 yards are more critical for bombers like Hagy since, when they miss a GIR, they tend to miss in a worse position. Hagy not only showed some quality play from 10-20 yards, but he also putted very well from 5-15 feet. He also ranked 162nd on putts from 15-25 feet and 171st on putts from 25+ feet, which are more likely to progress toward the mean for this upcoming season.

His iron play is still an issue, but there is some statistical correlation between Driving Effectiveness and Red Zone performance on the PGA Tour. This tends to happen with super-long hitters when they first reach the Tour; they struggle from the Red Zone, and then they later develop the skill quite nicely. Good examples are Bubba Watson and Gary Woodland. I expect Hagy will follow in their footsteps this season.

Andrew Landry

Landry did not play the PGA Tour last year, finishing fourth on the Money List on the Web.com Tour. He ranked 6th in Driving Effectiveness on the PGA Tour in 2016 and fourth in Putts Gained, however, and he showed some flashes of potential, particularly in the U.S. Open. The issue for him was his poor iron play and short game, but the numbers dictate that the likelihood of him driving it that well and putting that well and having nothing to show for it again are very low.

Players on the Decline

GOLF: SEP 29 PGA - The Presidents Cup - Second Round

Phil Mickelson

Phil_Mickelson_Rich_Hunt

Mickelson’s driving started out okay for the season, and then he took a drastic nosedive. The issue for Phil is that he’s seeing a dramatic drop in club and ball speed (currently at 114 mph swing speed/170 mph ball speed) without more accuracy off the tee. Combine that with his poor play from the Red Zone, and it appears that age may finally be catching up to Phil. The data projects a significant drop off coming soon.

Wesley Bryan

Wes_Bryan_Rich_Hunt

Bryan had a fantastic rookie season with a victory, a third-place finish, and three other top-10 finishes. He’s also young (27) and was a good Red Zone player and elite Yellow Zone player who putted well. So, what’s the problem?

The large discrepancy between his ranking in Adjusted Scoring Average and FedEx Cup Points indicates an issue. Bryan’s A-Game he was really good, but when he didn’t have his good stuff he struggled — his best finish in his last six events was a T44.

We also see a major issue with his driving. Bryan was the second-shortest off the tee, and he wasn’t overly accurate, making him the fourth worst driver on the PGA Tour. There’s not a strong correlation between driving and iron play, but there is enough of a correlation to find that troubling.

Bryan could make up for it by improving his play from 10-20 yards given how often he’ll miss a GIR due to poor driving. Even that is a difficult proposition if you drive it poorly enough, though. If Bryan was super long, but still a poor driver of the ball, he could have a chance if he put together four days of quality driving off the tee. But at this point, his data has similarity scores to players like Tyrone Van Aswegen and D.A. Points. It also runs close to Luke Donald, but Donald has not been nearly as effective in the past five years when the top, young players have driven the ball much better and longer off the tee.

Russell Knox

Russell_Knox_Rich_Hunt

Knox has usually been a statistical favorite of mine due to his ballstriking. He got off to a great fall season on Tour, but in 2017 he struggled mightily with only one top-10 finish. It was at the Bridgestone Invitational, where there is no cut.

Knox’s struggles from the Red Zone are concerning to me given that he is not very long off the tee and he’s not been a very good putter. He compounded the issue even more by struggling mightily from 10-20 yards. He’s still at an age (32) when Tour players start to have their best seasons… but it’s also that time of a player’s career where they can have an unexpected drop in performance that serves as a wakeup call.

Graeme McDowell

Graeme_McDowell_Rich_Hunt

McDowell used to be one of the best shorter-hitting drivers of the ball on Tour, as well as an excellent Red Zone player. He has always struggled with shots from 10-20 yards, and his putting performance has been inconsistent. Much of his impressive Putts Gained Ranking (fourth) was based off ranking first on putts from 15-25 feet.

McDowell is starting to get to the age when Tour players regress, and his putting from 15-25 feet is likely to regress toward the mean the next season. That means a lot of struggles from the critical Red Zone, along being unable to get up-and-down to save par — unless he straightens things out.

Pat Perez

Pat_Perez_Rich_Hunt

Perez’s age (41) works against him, and his putting is likely to regress given how well he putted from outside 15 feet in 2016-2017, which again, is likely to regress toward the mean.

The positive for Perez is that his biggest strength has been his ability to get reasonably close to executing all of the Cornerstones of the game. As he gets older, however, his ball speed is likely to go down, and that has a correlation to reduced effectiveness off the tee. His play from 10-20 yards is also likely to regress given that it was the best he’s ever recorded from that distance in his career. Thus, Perez is more likely to regress in each Cornerstone metric than he is to progress.

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

16 Comments

16 Comments

  1. Zander Cage

    Dec 29, 2017 at 3:21 pm

    Good stuff Rich. You nailed most of your picks last year in the same column. Do you like Aaron Wise or Beau Hossler to breakout this year? Would you agree Lovemark, Ollie and Cauley are also players on the rise? Keep up the good work!

  2. Chris B

    Oct 6, 2017 at 11:10 am

    I remember seeing last years, I think you may have been right about a few of them

    The only 2 I would question are Bryson D, just because his putting is such a problem. The other is Wesley Bryan, yes his driving can be indifferent but the rest of his game is so good. He had a great run of form through the Web.com and early season, it’s not a suprise that his form dipped a bit.

    • Richie Hunt

      Oct 6, 2017 at 4:40 pm

      My concern with Bryson is I think it goes against his nature to not tweak his putting, but that’s exactly what he needs to do. He really wasn’t that bad of a putter when he putted traditional style, but he was determined to use side saddle and it was a disaster. He may vehemently disagree with this, but I think the Tour banning his side saddle may have been the best thing for him.

  3. SteveK

    Oct 6, 2017 at 12:34 am

    Thanks for your reply comments, and, with enough data your projections will determine a trend.
    Your assessment of decliners must surely suggest that they suffer from mental and emotional weaknesses in addition to inherent game and swing flaws that produces your statistical analysis.
    Too bad you can’t quantify their IQ and intellectual level. That would fill in the gap!
    Perhaps you could ask a few of the decliners to take an IQ test to add that metric to your statistics. You should also ask the ‘risers’ too. If they agree, promise to keep it confidential in a customer-client relationship.

    • Richie Hunt

      Oct 6, 2017 at 4:38 pm

      I think it’s a lot about self esteem, confidence and having a healthy ego when it comes to the mental game. You have to have faith in yourself, but you also have to be honest with yourself when things are not as sharp or if you are progressing and you feel the urge to tweak things to pique your interest. Lots of self awareness.

      One of my clients has won numerous times on Tour and I don’t think he’s the most talented player out there by any means. But his mental game and overall attitude is one of the best I’ve ever seen. If I could put that into some of the other clients I work with, they would become top-5 players in the world overnight.

      • SteveK

        Oct 7, 2017 at 1:00 pm

        I agree, but if somebody has a low IQ and they are competing athletically at the highest level, they will eventually come to the realization that they are not very smart on and off the golf course. That’s the “Lots of self awareness.” you may be referring to.
        Self esteem, confidence and having a healthy ego usually goes with higher intellect, and an IQ test would likely confirm that.
        Of course, mental and emotional weakness may also be due to life problems that can only be resolved through medical attention. Perhaps psychological and medical counseling is also needed to uncover the root of the problem.
        Thanks for your thoughtful reply.

  4. henry

    Oct 5, 2017 at 9:24 pm

    I was expecting to see Tony Finau as one of your players on the rise.

    • Richie Hunt

      Oct 6, 2017 at 4:32 pm

      He’s already at that point of rising as he made it to East Lake. It’s more about players that aren’t established versus those who are established.

  5. Vegas Bullet Dodger

    Oct 5, 2017 at 5:26 pm

    What’s the prediction for the top 10 in the world…
    Who’s will rise, maintain, and decline yo?

    • Donald

      Oct 7, 2017 at 1:12 pm

      Limousine leftist liberal golfers will fall and right on conservative golfers will win.

  6. Blake

    Oct 5, 2017 at 1:17 pm

    I really doubt PP is heading down based on him making the top 30 over the season. And phil just needs to go back to his phrankenwood, or a similar 10-13* 1/2 wood. He just needs to get in the fairway more

  7. SteveK

    Oct 5, 2017 at 12:47 pm

    Interesting analysis, but the one metric that you didn’t and could not measure categorically is “mental and emotional” strengths and weaknesses.
    I refer you to the current GolfWRX article on that topic, namely:
    How to improve your mental and emotional strength on the golf course
    By John Haime – Oct 4, 2017

    http://www.golfwrx.com/468086/how-to-improve-your-mental-and-emotional-strength-on-the-golf-course/#comment-609942
    ———————
    Pro golfers on the rise and the decline clearly show mental and emotional states that affect their course management and even golf swing mechanics on an unconscious level. Read the comments too.

    • Rich Hunt

      Oct 5, 2017 at 8:07 pm

      I’ve done these projections for a while and the projections have been ‘pretty good’ in their accuracy. But, it’s always easier to project those on the decline than it is those on the rise. I thought and studied this for a while and I came to the conclusion that the decliners are easier to project because when they are struggling they are more likely to stick with whatever they are doing even if it isn’t working anymore because it worked for them at one time so they refuse to change.

      Compare that to the players on the rise which is more difficult to project because even when they have made significant progress they are more likely to make changes if they do not reach nirvana and get that Tour victory. That to me, is the toughest issue for so many Tour players…many of whom I’ve worked personally with. They may have the talent, but they don’t quite trust themselves and think that something is ‘wrong’ if it doesn’t produce victories and something is ‘right’ if it once produced a victory but is no longer working for them.

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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