The PGA Tour heads to Maryland this week for the Quicken Loans National. The field is headlined by Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas and Jimmy Walker. Defending champ, Billy Hurley III, is also in the field and hopes to become the first back-to-back winner in the tournament history. Although he may not be in attendance, Tiger Woods plays host to the QLN with proceeds going to his Tiger Woods Foundation.

• Tournament Record: 266 by Troy Merritt in 2015 at Robert Trent Jones GC
• 18-Hole Record: 61 by Troy Merritt in 2015

The Course

TPC Potomac is the site of this year’s Quicken Loans National for the first time. The par-70, 7,100-yard course was once a regular stop on Tour, but it has changed dramatically since. This will be the first Tour even at Potomac since its redesign; 12 of the 18 holes have had major renovations, while the remaining six have had slight adjustments. It’s tough to say what type of player the course will favor, but after last week’s Travelers Championship, it’s safe to say the players will face a few more long irons into the greens.

Odds

Past Champs in the field:

• KJ Choi +25000
• Nick Watney +12500
• Bill Haas +2200
• Troy Merritt +12500
• Billy Hurley III +10000

Favorites:

• Rickie Fowler +850
• Justin Thomas +1200
• Patrick Reed +1400
• Bill Haas +2200
• Marc Leishman +2500
• Kevin Chappell +2500
• Brendan Steele +2500
• David Lingmerth +3000
• Tony Finau +3300

My Pick – I’m going with Rickie Fowler this week at +850. He’s the clear favorite, so it certainly isn’t a risky pick, but I think he takes homes the trophy. He played as well as anyone through the first three rounds of the U.S. Open, and he’s coming off a week of much needed rest. He’s said himself that his game is at the highest level, so it’s clear he’s feeling as confident as possible coming into the week. What really puts him over the top in my book is his par-3 scoring average of 2.98; good enough to rank 6th on Tour. On a par-70 course, the scoring opportunities are limited, so making birdie on par 3s will be key.

Value Pick – I see a lot of value in Russell Henley at +3300. He had a pretty disappointing few weeks leading up to the U.S. Open, three missed cuts in four starts leading into Erin Hills, which bumped up his odds quite a bit. Despite that stretch, he managed to finished just outside the top-25 at the U.S. Open and ranks 16th in Shots Gained: Total and 26th in Birdie Average.

Long Shot –Xander Schauffele (+5000) is my long shot pick of the week. It’s definitely the trendy pick after his strong performance at the U.S. Open, but his showing at the Travelers is what impressed me the most. Every year we seem to see a “no-name” hang around the top of the leaderboard at a major, only to disappear the next week. That wasn’t the case for Schauffele; he finished T14 including a final-round 67 at TPC River Highlands. I think his top-five finish in a major gave him a huge confidence boost and helped him realize he belongs atop the leaderboard.

Props

Rickie Fowler & Justin Thomas (+400) vs. the Field (-650): I’ll take these odds all day. I’ve got Rickie pegged as the winner alone; add in Justin Thomas, and it’s a pretty safe play. Thomas will be looking to make a statement after stumbling down the stretch at Erin Hills and missing the cut at the Travelers, so I expect to see him make a ton of birdies.

Wire-to-Wire winner – Yes (+1400): I’m going with “yes” here. Again, Rickie Fowler is my pick to win and I think he’ll take it wire-to-wire. He ranks third in first-round scoring average and ninth on moving day. It’s certainly possible on a new course that someone shoots a 61, but with these odds I’ll take my chances.