Opinion & Analysis
Fantasy Preview: 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational

After yet another exciting week on the PGA Tour, we move on to the Arnold Palmer Invitational as the build up to the year’s first major intensifies. For some, this week will be the final step in their Masters preparation, while for others it’s one of the final chances remaining to qualify. Tiger Woods heads the field here after his excellent performance last week and goes off as the favorite at 11/2.
Bay Hill is a tough golf course. It’s over 7,400 yards with fairway bunkers and thick rough that make it a very demanding test. With many long Par 4’s and Par 3’s on the course (as well as a lot of water), form and confidence with long irons is going to be critical this week, as is Par-5 scoring. Last year, Marc Leishman held off both Charley Hoffman and Kevin Kisner to post 11-under par and take the title by one stroke.
Selected Tournament Odds (via Bet365)
- Tiger Woods 11/2
- Jason Day 12/1
- Justin Rose 14/1
- Rory Mcilroy 18/1
- Rickie Fowler 18/1
- Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
- Hideki Matsuyama 25/1
Tiger mania is back. The man who has dominated this event is a best price 6/1 to claim title his ninth title here this week. His performance at Copperhead was enough for punters to declare that he is back, and if you subscribe to that then it’s not exactly a bad price considering his past success at this event. The one crumb of comfort for the rest of the field is that Tiger has yet to dominate the Par 5’s so far this year, something he always managed to do in his prime. If he takes care of the Par 5’s this week then I imagine he’ll win, but the price is still a tad skinny for me.
Instead, I believe there’s a lot of value with a player who was a single-digit favorite just a few weeks ago. Rickie Fowler (18/1, DK Price $10,300) has been a mixed bag so far this year. Because of his popularity he rarely has a lot of value attached to his price, but I think this week he does. At a best price of 20/1, it’s the biggest he has gone off in a long time. A lot of that will have to do with his mediocre performance in Mexico, which was a display that was entirely down to his putting. It was his worst performance on the greens in over four years, and he will be very happy to be returning to Bermuda greens this week on which he has always putted extremely well.
In his last 12 rounds, Fowler sits 15th in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green and 16th in Ball Striking. In his last start in Mexico, he produced statistically his best display with his irons since last year at the Quicken Loans. He is just failing to score at the moment, something that I feel is about to change. Par-4 scoring between 450-500 yards will be important this week with six holes falling in this category. In his past 12 rounds, Fowler sits 10th for efficiency from this range.
Bay Hill is also a place that Fowler has played well in the past. He finished T3 here on his debut back in 2013, and last year he finished solo 12th. Crucially, I don’t see a repeat of what happened on the greens in Mexico. Fowler has gained 11.7 strokes over the field at this tournament on the greens in his four starts. With his iron game returning, greens he loves and now at a far more attractive price than usual, I’m more than happy to back Rickie this week.
Speaking of iron games returning, Adam Scott (35/1, DK Price $8,700) is on fire right now from tee to green. In his last two starts, he has gained a whopping 15.9 strokes over the field from tee to green. The Australian is beginning to peak at the right time, and this may be his final start before Augusta unless he has a great week and qualifies for next week’s WGC. Of course, not everything is peaking at the right time for Scott, and his putting is showing no sign of improvement. Despite his putter, he was able to finish T16 last week. Bay Hill is definitely a course that fits his eye. In his last three starts, he has finishes of 12th-35th-3rd.
Taking care of the Par 5’s this week is going to be vitally important, and Scott is ranked No. 1 in this field for proficiency on Par 5’s over his last eight rounds. On Par 4’s that measure between 450-500 yards, he ranks 3rd in the field for efficiency over his last 12 rounds. If he could just manage to putt average by his standards, he will be right there this week. The rest of his game is ready to compete, and because of that he looks an attractive price.
Another man who is showing signs of hitting top form is Louis Oosthuizen (55/1, DK Price 8,200). The South African has been quiet lately, but a T12 last week where his ball striking shone was a very good sign. Bay Hill should also suit his excellent tee-to-green game well, and it’s no surprise that he has a top-10 finish here on his resume.
Bay Hill is a big golf course, and it provides a serious test of long irons. Oosthuizen should be licking his chops at this test, as recently his long irons have been sensational. For his last 12 rounds, he is ranked 5th in the field for proximity to the hole from 200+ yards and 3rd from 175-200 yards. Overall, the South African is No. 1 in proximity in the same period. Putting has never been an asset for Oosthuizen, but encouragingly he has a positive strokes gained total on the greens of over six strokes on his previous two starts at Bay Hill. At 55/1, he seems a little too big and there are enough signs that Oosthuizen is ready to do some damage this week.
Finally, my last pick looks a very big price. Keegan Bradley (100/1, DK Price $7,300) has been lighting it up tee to green for some time, and it seems this part of his game is at the height of its powers. In his last 24 rounds, the American sits 1st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 1st in Ball Striking and 2nd in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green. Unfortunately, he is undoing all of this great work on the greens, where he is putting horrendously. Despite this, I feel 100/1 is too big for a guy who has already placed this season at the Farmers and now returns to a track that is tailor made for his game.
In five outings at Bay Hill, Bradley has never missed a cut and has two top-5 finishes to his name. It’s a course that rewards excellent tee-to-green play, and nobody is doing that better than him at the moment. Whether he can win with his putting being so poor at the moment is questionable, but there is still enough value around Keegan in several markets including top-10 and top-5, as well as adding him to your DraftKings lineups.
Recommended Plays
- Rickie Fowler 18/1, DK Price $10,300
- Adam Scott 35/1, DK Price $8,700
- Louis Oosthuizen 55/1, DK Price $8,200
- Keegan Bradley 100/1, DK Price $7,300
Opinion & Analysis
The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Podcasts
Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Opinion & Analysis
On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.