The PGA Tour travels to Memphis, Tennessee this week for the WGC- FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Only 66 golfers will be in attendance and every single one of them will be guaranteed four rounds of action. “WGC” stands for World Golf Championships, which are elevated status events that offer more FedEx Cup points, larger purposes, and typically attract the best players in the world.

This week is no different, as 29 of the world’s top 30 players will be heading to TPC Southwind, a Ron Pritchard design with zoysia fairways and Bermuda-grass greens. Despite only playing as a Par 70 and tipping out to 7,244 yards, TPC Southwind is a firm test, as the winning score has been 13-under par or higher in eight of the last ten years.

Part of what makes TPC Southwind such a challenge is it’s small greens, and sticky two and a half foot Bermuda-grass rough. Hitting fairways and greens will be absolutely essential this week, but I chose to hone in even moreso on elite short to mid iron players, as 67% of all TPC Southwind’s approach shots come from between 125-150 yards.

Let’s dig into my outright selections!

Dustin Johnson (20/1, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. An elite player in questionable form drifts to 20/1 at a course he’s won at multiple times. Yes, Dustin Johnson this week is very much giving me Rory McIlroy at Quail Hollow vibes. I understand that the two-time major champion hasn’t been playing his best golf, but the recent Masters champion has always been quick to flip a switch. Around this time last summer, Johnson shot back to back 80s at the Memorial and an after an opening round 78, withdrew from the 3M. Directly following that, Johnson then proceeded to finish 12th-2nd-1st-2nd-1st-6th-2nd-1st in his next eight starts.

Digging into the numbers, Johnson is not as far off as people may think. His irons were still fully intact at the 3M Open. I’m just not sure he wanted to be there, which led to some shaky short game and putting stats. Now the 23-time winner returns to course that he’s won at twice and never finished worse than 24th in seven appearances. Don’t overthink this one.

Viktor Hovland (25/1, William Hill)

I wrote up Viktor Hovland in this column last week, and while he unfortunately was unable to get over the finish line for us, I was incredibly encouraged from what I saw by the young Norwegian. He closed with a final round 64, and ranked third for the week in strokes gained off the tee, and 16th in strokes gained approach.

Hovland has only played TPC Southwind once, and he finished an unremarkable 59th, but I am incredibly bullish on his course fit. The two-time PGA Tour winner is an unbelievable wedge player, ranking third in this field in proximity from 125-150 yards over his last 36 rounds. Many like to think of Hovland on longer courses where he can bomb away, but lest we not forget, he just finished third at the Valspar, another short, difficult course, with small Bermuda-grass greens. I believe this will be a “hello world” moment for the rising star.

Scottie Scheffler (30/1, FanDuel Sportbook)

While Scottie Scheffler may not quite be the talent that Hovland is, he’s not far behind, and I will gladly back the former University of Texas standout at a slightly larger price. Scheffler continues to knock on the door when the lights are the brightest. Dating back to last August, the Dallas native has finished fourth at the PGA Championship at Harding Park, 19th at the November Masters, fifth at the WGC- Concession, second at the WGC- Match Play, 18th at the April Masters, third at the Memorial, seventh at the U.S. Open, and eighth at the Open Championship.

There is no reason to believe that Scheffler can’t find success at TPC Southwind either. He finished 15th here last year, and over his last 36 rounds, he ranks better than field average in nearly every single key metric I am weighing. He’s been excellent off the tee, the irons can pop, and most importantly, he’s just playing some really confident golf right, with four top-12 finishes in his last five starts. I expect him to be relevant in Memphis this week as well.

Joaquin Niemann (45/1, bet365)

Notice a theme here? I’m all in on the young guns this week. Niemann very much impressed me last week at the Olympics with a 10th-place finish where he gained three strokes off the tee and 2.2 strokes on approach. The young Chilean has made a name for himself with his elite ball-striking. Over his last 20 starts, he is averaging a robust 2.3 strokes off the tee and 1.4 strokes on approach. Those are incredibly impressive numbers over a large sample size, especially when taken into account that he is still only 22!

While the former Greenbrier Classic winner has only mustered a missed cut and a 52nd in two appearances at TPC Southwind, he is a much better player now. He’s experienced loads of success at shorter, difficult, par 70 tracks with smaller Bermuda-grass greens like PGA National and Innisbrook. I expect Niemann to be right in the mix come Sunday afternoon.

Justin Rose (80/1, BetMGM)

I’ll admit, I’m taking more of a narrative angle with this selection than a statistical one. Sitting at 134th in the FedEx Cup standings and 16th in the Ryder Cup standings, Justin Rose needs this one. “Need” may be a strong word for 24-time world-wide winner, but I chose to believe that similar to his European peers such as Paul Casey, Lee Westwood, Sergio Garcia, and Ian Poulter, Rose has something left in the tank and still cares to compete in his forties. At the tender age of 41, Rose is younger than all of the players I just mentioned, but you wouldn’t know it from his recent play. I believe it’s go time for Justin Rose.

In one appearance at TPC Southwind, the 10-time PGA Tour winner finished 11th. His long term form with his short irons is elite, and I have no reason to believe that a shorter, par 70 track with Bermuda-grass greens might be just what the doctor ordered for Justin Rose, whose experienced a great deal of success at Innisbrook and TPC Sawgrass. I expect the former U.S. Open champion to rise to the occasion this week.