Welcome to a new installment of betting tips from staff writer and host of the Pick the Pup Golf Show, Andy Lack.

The PGA Tour travels to Jersey City, New Jersey, this week for the Northern Trust, the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. After Louis Oosthuizen’s withdrawal, 124 of the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup standings will be in attendance this week at Liberty National, a course we have seen only four times before in professional competition.

Liberty National is a par 70, measuring 7,353 yards on the scorecard with bentgrass greens and bentgrass fairways. The Robert Cupp and Tom Kite design has hosted this tournament in 2009, 2013, and 2019, and it was also the host course for the 2017 Presidents Cup. Liberty National is a course that has proven to cater to a balanced tee-to-green skill-set, and regardless of venue, this is nearly always a tournament won by a premier player.

This column is coming off a heartbreaking loss last week. Not only did we have Russell Henley, who lead the tournament for 69 holes, but we also had Kevin Streelman at an even bigger number, who held a share of the lead on the back nine and bogeyed the final hole to finish one shot outside of the playoff. With that being said, the thought process was sound, and we feel primed for a rebound. Let’s dig into my outright selections.

The Northern Trust 2021 betting tips and selections

Dustin Johnson (18/1, William Hill)

I was very close to selecting Brooks Koepka at a slightly bigger number, and I may live to regret that decision, but let’s roll with DJ here. The two-time major winner has won this tournament three separate times, and while they all came at different courses than Liberty National, Johnson did dominate Liberty in the 2017 Presidents Cup, ending the competition as the only player on either team to secure four points.

While I am aware that Johnson’s last six months have been underwhelming at best, this is always time of year when he tends to turn it on. Statistically, he is certainly trending in the right direction. In his last start, the 24-time PGA Tour winner gained strokes in all four major categories en route to a 10th-place finish. His +3.2 strokes on approach was his best iron week since February. I expect Johnson to be a massive factor down the stretch, and a win this week at one of his favorite tournaments on a familiar course would be a welcome start.

Rory McIlroy (26/1, William Hill)

This is my favorite bet of the week, and the most confident I have been in a player in quite some time. I believe that Rory McIlroy will win this week, and here’s the short-hand version of why. The four-time major champion gained 12.5 strokes ball-striking in Memphis, good for the best ball-striking week he’s had in over two years. Looking back at some of McIlroy’s results from 2014, 2017, and 2019, when he was at the peak of his powers, it was because of ball-striking numbers like that.

On a more narrative angle, something flipped for McIlroy at the Olympics. Judging from his quotes both before and after the Olympics, representing his country and competing on such a big stage clearly reignited something in him. He was right in the mix at the Olympics, and he followed that performance up with the best ball-striking week he’s had in two years in Memphis. McIlroy feels inspired again, and when a player is a hitting the ball that well, wins tend to follow extremely soon.

Justin Thomas (27/1, FanDuel)

I had no real plans to bet Justin Thomas this week until I saw his number. I’ll harken back to Justin Thomas’ last win, The Players Championship. The 14-time PGA Tour winner drifted to 20/1, and sure enough, he claimed victory at TPC Sawgrass. Comparing how he was performing before the PLAYERS to how he is playing coming into this tournament, there’s an argument to be made that there are more positives with his game right now than there was prior to his PLAYERS win. And yet, we are getting him at an even bigger number, in a field of 124 instead of 156, on a golf course that he’s been excellent on.

I’ve been critical of Thomas recently, and this is the first time I’m looking in his direction in months, yet I finally saw what I was looking for last week in Memphis. After struggling with his irons for over a month, Thomas gained 6.1 strokes on approach at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. The irons are definitively back, and he’s just about due for a spike putting week. I love the number and I love the ceiling. This was an easy decision.

Keegan Bradley (140/1, FanDuel)

I could have easily capped my card off with those three elite players, but at such massive numbers, these next two players deserve at least some consideration. While this was a very small bet for me compared to the three selections above, I love Keegan Bradley this week. Yes, I do believe that this tournament is going to be won by a top-end player, the Vermont native does feel like the most worthy party crasher.

Three of Bradley’s four career wins have come at a major, a WGC, and a FedEx Cup playoff event. Those all came on difficult golf courses that place a high emphasis on an elite tee-to-green game. The former PGA Championship winner continues to hit the ball beautifully, and he possesses an extremely underrated short game as well. Liberty National has shown us that it’s possible to get by here with excellent ball-striking and mediocre putting, so I will gladly take my chances on Keegan Bradley at a giant number.

Carlos Ortiz (200/1, DraftKings)

Hear me out on this one. This number is just too big for a player of Ortiz’s caliber, even in this field. While nothing about Liberty National screams Carlos Ortiz to me, the former Houston Open winner is really solid across the board from a statistical standpoint and possesses no glaring weaknesses. And even so, I do believe the Guadalajara native still has elite upside. Ortiz has shown us he is capable of gaining over nine strokes on approach on any given week, and there aren’t a lot of other players, especially in this price range, that even have that in their bag.

The University of North Texas product is coming off a week in Memphis where he gained over five strokes ball-striking, which is not the same as gaining over five strokes ball-striking at the Wyndham. Ortiz has displayed the ball-striking chops to compete in elite fields, and he has now gained off the tee in three straight measured starts, and on approach in five straight measured starts. I will gladly take my chances with the upside.