The PGA Tour continues its Florida Swing at Bay Hill Club and Lodge to play this week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.  This event has been a mainstay on Tour, appearing on the schedule every year since 1979.

Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par 72 measuring 7,454 yards and features Bermuda-grass greens. Interestingly, the past five editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational have yielded an international champion. Bay Hill can play extremely difficult if the wind picks up, but the course certainly has teeth whether there is wind or not.

There are 120 golfers in the field this week at Bay Hill. This event usually attracts a very strong field but being that The PLAYERS Championship (March 10-13) is next week, some top players have chosen to sit this week out.

Even so, the field this week will feature some of the world’s best including: Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama Adam Scott, Patrick Reed, Justin Rose, Sungjae Im, Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler, Paul Casey and Tommy Fleetwood.

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Outright Bets

Viktor Hovland (+1800) (DraftKings):

Viktor Hovland comes into the week with scorching hot irons, which is the most important aspect of taming Bay Hill. In his most recent start at Riviera, the 24-year-old gained 6.1 strokes on approach. The dialed-in performance trailed only Tony Finau and winner Joaquin Niemann in the category, and it led Hovland to a 4th place finish. 

Last season, Hovland was also very good at Riviera. He gained 4.1 strokes on approach (5th place finish) and rode his hot form into the following week. His next start came at WGC Concession where finished in second place and gained 8.7 strokes on approach; which was a career best. Hovland now heads to Florida once again after a strong showing at Riviera and I expect another ceiling performance from him. 

The OWGR number 4 ranked golfer in the world has become one of the best players in the world, and recently won the Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour (January 2022). Despite the worldwide success, Hovland still is in search of a signature win on the PGA Tour. Bay Hill would be a logical spot for that to happen. 

Matt Fitzpatrick (+3000) (Bet365):

It’s no secret that Matt Fitzpatrick absolutely loves Bay Hill. Fitz has finished in the top ten in his past three starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with his best finish (2nd) coming in 2019.

While he clearly has the course history on his side, the Englishman also rates out perfectly for Bay Hill. In the field, Fitzpatrick ranks 1st in par 5 scoring, 7th in Strokes Gained: Putting on lightning fast bermudagrass greens, and 12th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. With a game that was built for this course, it’s no surprise that he has exceled around here throughout his career.

The 27-year-old gained 4.2 strokes on approach in his most recent start at the WM Phoenix Open and 7.2 strokes from tee to green. His game is rounding into form at the proper time to finally get his first PGA Tour victory.

Paul Casey (+4000) (DraftKings):

Among Paul Casey’s three PGA Tour victories, two of them have come in the state of Florida (Valspar Championship 2018, 2019). Like Copperhead, Bay Hill is a course that is a great fit for Casey, considering the difficult conditions and the potentially higher-than-normal winning score. 

Looking at the history of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, one of the first things that are worthy of mentioning is the amount of elite European players who have had success at Bay Hill. Prior to Bryson Dechambeau’s dominant victory last season, the past three winners were Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari, and Tyrrell Hatton. Casey is a European of a similar mold who has tons of Ryder Cup experience (like the other three) and excels in difficult conditions. 

In addition to the ideal course fit, the 44-year-old is playing some excellent golf. At the Genesis Invitational, Casey gained 5.6 strokes on approach and finished in 15th place. With four par 3’s on the course of 200+ yards, Casey should have an advantage as he gains an average of 2.4 strokes on the field per event on par 3’s of that length. 

With two top ten finishes in his past three tries at Bay Hill, Casey has proven he has what it takes to contend at the course. 

Danny Willett (+20000) (DraftKings):

Willett is a golfer that offers pure win equity. You won’t find many golfers in the field this week in their mid 30’s with nine professional wins in the triple digits on the odds board, but that’s where we find Willett this week.

Considering he has won as recently as October (Alfred Dunhill Links Championship) in a relatively strong field, it is safe to say that his game is in fine shape. He emphasized that last week at the Honda Classic, despite not finishing very high on the leader board. He was solid across the board statistically and gained 5.6 strokes from tee to green on the week. His troubles came with the putter, where he lost an abysmal 4.4 strokes. Willett has shown in the past he is capable of handling firm and fast greens in the past, as he has won The Masters at Augusta National. Although the surface is different, the speed of the greens at Bay Hill is one of the few that can rival Augusta.

Willett has some solid course history, with finishes of 18th and 31 in his past to trips to Bay Hill. If it plays difficult this week, the 34-year-old Englishman has the grinder’s mentality to contend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.