Opinion & Analysis
2022 AT&T Byron Nelson: Best prop bets
With Corey Conners missing out on a top-20 by one shot after a final hole bogey and Justin Harding taking three steps forward before two back, last weekend’s props could, and should, have shown far more than just the top-40 for Ryan Armour.
Still, it keeps the wheels turning and whilst we are going to leave the brand new Soudal Open alone, we go again this week at the well-established Byron Nelson, a week that should see winning scores far lower than seen at TPC Potomac.
As always, this column ignores the outright market, and these are the best bets on a week before a big one.
Top-10 and Top-20 finishes
Will Zalatoris +250 +115 (FanDuel)
Sam Burns +250 +120 (DraftKings)
Adam Hadwin +600 + 320 (FanDuel)
At this event last year, Scottie Scheffler went off at around 22/1 and had still to win an event.
Over the next 25 outings, he won four events, including The Masters, and is now the undisputed world number one, and of the current crop of young, talented maidens, Will Zalatoris is surely the one most likely to do a ‘Scottie’ after just a couple of seasons at the top level.
There are no secrets about his play – he is long off the tee, supremely accurate with his irons and makes plenty of birdies. The only thing holding him back is the flat stick, but there have been signs of improvement on the greens over the last three events.
Numbers-wise for the season, Will is 11th off-the-tee, second in approaches and also in tee-to-green, 11th in greens-in-regulation and 28th in birdies.
He hasn’t missed the cut in all seven of the regular rules events, just failed to make the semi-finals of the Match Play, and added a sixth-placed finish at The Masters to go along with another three Major top-10s.
Here, at Craig Ranch, he finished 17th last year on his debut, ranking third for tee-to-green off an event-leading +9.5 for his approaches. Of course, in typical Willy Z fashion, ranking 70th for putting affected his final position, but anything resembling a field-average display on the greens will see him land this wager with ease.
DraftKings see his chance as a negative number, which isn’t wrong in this field, so get all over the price on FanDuel.
Sam Burns is another 25-year-old ready to take on the world and, like Willy Z, won on the KFT. The ultimate difference between them being Burns’ three victories at PGA Tour level, all with scores of at least 17-under.
Again, seasonal figures are impressive to look at – 11th in approach play leads to a ranking of 18th for tee-to-green; 10th in greens-in-regulation, and 34th in putting – figures that find it hard to spot a weakness in this all-round player.
Burns repeats form at tracks he does well at. Back-to-back winner at the Valspar, he also a win and third at the Sanderson Farms, so his runner-up here last season makes him look a very obvious play.
For correlation in tracks, look to his third place at Riviera, the Genesis form appearing in three of last year’s top-six, including winner K.H Lee, whilst 2019 winner Sung Kang can also boast a tied-second around there.
Long off the tee, the slight waywardness shouldn’t matter around Craig Ranch. Burns is top-20 for scoring in each of the disciplines (par-3, four and five) and has the aforementioned course form with a runner-up last season, a tournament at which he ranked top-10 for all disciplines except putting (45th). Any slight improvement will see land this bet with ease.
34-year-old Adam Hadwin has appeared in this column previously as a prop bet and landed the money with ease at both the Valspar and Texas Open.
Going back 10 years, the in-form Canadian had his best finish of his debut year around here when finishing 3rd at the Web.com Tour Championship and whilst the course might play somewhat longer, he’ll come here confident of building on a good 2022.
In nine regular events, Hadwin has three top 10s, one top-20 and three top-30 finishes with figures that impress for consistency.
His ranking of 15th for strokes-gained approach and 28th for tee-to-green show the quality of his recent ball-striking (only once outside the top-20 in approach in six starts), whilst 11th for par-5 scoring and 19th in strokes-gained-total mean he should find this place a breeze.
Twice in the top-3 at the low-scoring Career Builder, he has a 6th at Riviera and 4th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic as further pointers to his chance.
Another former winner of the Valspar, Hadwin, crept inside the world’s top-100 to cement his place at Southern Hills next week and can celebrate in style.
Opinion & Analysis
5 Things We Learned: Thursday at the PGA Championship
Aronimink is not a storied club, but when Donald Ross himself proclaimed it to be as good as he can design and build, one had to take notice. Jay Sigel was the pre-eminent male amateur golfer from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s. He might have called any number of Philadelphia clubs home, but he chose Aronimink. It served him well. Gary Player won a PGA Championship here in 1962, and was followed by the 1993 winner … nobody. Aronimink gave that event away to Inverness, for reasons of which it is certainly not proud. So be it. We had to wait sixty-four years for the PGA to return to Newtown Square, but here we are. Aronimink has been neo-restored by Gil Hanse and team, to return Ross features with an eye toward defense against the dark arts, errrr, high-tech equipment.
Day one saw Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau dig big holes, to the tune of plus-four and plus-six, respectively. Since the first-round lead will be minus-three at worst, many shots will need to be made up for the power couple to reach contention. By nightfall, seven golfers held the day-one lead at three-under par 67. Shots and sticks caught our attention, and we are proud to present Five Things We Learned on Tech Thursday at the 2026 PGA Championship. Thanks to InsideTourGolfer, Today’s Golfer, and GolfWRX for initial equipment research.
First, meet Min Woo Lee
Min Woo Lee, aka Dr. Chipinski, has once again thrust himself into the conversation of Can he, will he, when will he? Lee has so much talent, wins not nearly as often as we believe that he should, and has no major near-misses (much less titles) on his wiki. The young Aussie is getting older and wiser, but is he able to avoid the scarring that holds the older and wiser back from breaking through? Philadelphia offers another opportunity. Min Woo signed for five birdies and two bogeys on day one, and grabbed a share of the opening-day lead at Aronimink. Winners transcend history and the moment, and Lee will need that sort of ascent to lift the Wannamaker on Sunday.
Second, meet Aldrich Potgeiter
The young South African golfer can rip driver with the best of them. Aronimink tips out at nearly 7400 yards, but beyond the fairway bunkers that ensnare only the mortals, Potgeiter can take his chances with wedge from the rough. On Thursday, he spent plenty of time in the spinach. Like Popeye, he used his muscles to gouge and thrash and dig his way out. Six birdies against three bogeys on the card brought AP in a three deep.
Third, meet Martin Kaymer
Not a major event takes place without a where’s he been throwback moment. We know that Martin Kaymer left the PGA and DP World tours for LIV golf, but the two-time (US Open and PGA) major winner has a lifetime exemption into at least one major event, and he seizes the opportunity each May. Kaymer joined the six-seven brigade with four birdies and a solitary bogey on day one. Kaymer was never a long hitter, and the years are kind to no golfer. The German champion will need to uncork every bottle of guile and strategy in his cabinet to remain in contention. For today, though, he occupies a rung on the ladder of Tour Tech.
Fourth, meet Scottie Scheffler
Let’s see, he’s the defending champion at the PGA, and he found his way back to the top tier with five birdies against two bogeys. To be a favorite and then play up to that stature and expectation is quite difficult. Just ask Rory, Bryson, and some of the other pre-tournament heartthrobs. Scheffler’s game is complete, and to knock him off the OWGR #1 pedestal, one needs to defeat him at the majors. Aronimink is the sort of course that fits Scheffler’s game. Better yet, it unfits the game of many of his challengers. Don’t expect Scheffler to go away anytime soon. Come Sunday, he’ll be around.
Fifth, meet Stephan Jaeger
Clocking in for the unheralded players shift are Ryo Hisatsune and Stephan Jaeger. Hisatsune logged seven birdies on day one, but gave most of them back with four bogeys. Still, he’s tied at the top for a time. Jaeger pitched five birdies against two bogeys, including a run of three consecutive, from holes four through six. Odds are that one of the two will hang around through 36 holes. Odds also suggest that both will be gone by Saturday evening. Still, the PGA Championship has historically been the major most likely to be won by an under-known. Both Hisatsune and Jaeger feature on that list, so good luck, lads!
Club Junkie
Club Junkie’s Titleist GTS driver fitting results!
On this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, I head to the Titleist Performance Institute for a full driver fitting with the new Titleist GTS lineup. We dive into the fitting process, talk about what made the biggest difference in performance, and break down how the different GTS heads and shaft combinations compare on the launch monitor. If you are thinking about a new driver setup for this season, there is a lot to take away from this one.
I also get into Brooks Koepka and the gear setup he brought to the PGA Championship, including the putters that caught my eye during the week. There are some interesting equipment trends showing up at the highest level right now and we break down what stands out.
To wrap things up, I talk about reshafting a few wedges, what I learned during the process, and swapping an adaptor onto a new shaft for another build project in the shop. A gear packed episode from start to finish for anyone who loves golf equipment and club building.
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Club Junkie
Club Junkie WITB, week 16: New Titleist GTS woods!
Excited for this week’s WITB as we get to add the new Titleist GTS woods to the bag! I was fit at Titleist’s TPI facility in Oceanside California a few weeks ago and my new clubs just showed up. I am also adding a cool set of irons that I built last year some wild custom wedges into a new golf bag. Speaking of the bag I have a new Ghost Anyday Black Ops stand bag that I will be using on my Motocaddy Remote M7 electric cart.
Driver: Titleist GTS3 (11 degrees @ 10.25)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Red 6s
3-wood: Titleist GT1 3Tour (14.5 degrees)
Shaft: Graphite Design Tour AD CQ-7s
5-wood: Titleist GTS (18 degrees)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Red 7s
9-wood: Titleist GT1 (24 degress)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Red 7s
Irons: Bettinardi CB24 (5-PW)
Shafts: KBS C-Taper Lite 110 stiff
Wedge: TaylorMade MG5 (50-09 SB)
Shaft: Mitsubishi MMT 125 Stiff
Wedge: TaylorMade MG5 (56-12 SB)
Shaft: Mitsubishi MMT 125 Stiff
Wedge: TaylorMade MG5 (60-08 LB)
Shaft: Mitsubishi MMT 125 Stiff
Putter: Dan Carraher ZT Proto
Ball: Callaway Chrome Tour
Bag: Ghost Anyday Black Ops Stand Bag
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