Opinion & Analysis
2022 Nedbank Golf Challenge: Betting Picks & Selections
Previously known as the Million Dollar Challenge (who knows what that is worth today?) the Gary Player Country Club hosts the 40th running of its invitational event, flitting between an initial 12 man field to the modern day 70 or thereabouts.
Given the conditions of entry, it is no surprise to read the catalogue of top class champions, ranging from Seve to Faldo, from Sergio to Westwood, and all those in-between. This year, the event is a chance for those on the cusp of the DP World top-50 to confirm their place in next week’s seasonal decider, the DP World Tour Championship, though it’s hard to make a solid case for players currently outside of the top-70, Wil Besseling and Nicolai Von Dellingshausen, to launch above superior rivals is a question I’ll leave to you.
A solid tee-to-green game is vital around this long, 7500-odd yard track, and whilst the yardage may prompt the view that distance is all, of the top-five in driving distance from 2017 to 2019, only Joost Luiten finished on the front page of the leaderboard. Smack it around, sure, but avoid the deep rough, and ensure either approaches are solid or the scrambling is solid enough to avoid bogies. Any less and it’s a fairly early goodnight and no hope of winning a tough tournament at around 12-under.
Previous champions arrive in form – the last five have had a win or top finish/es in their previous ten starts – so both favourites, Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Smith, have to have appeal.
It’s tough to split them despite the 55 places between them in the official world rankings, but the slightly younger man gives the impression he’s only just begun and gets the nod.
The forecast of rain will make fairway finding even more of a necessity and, whilst the man from Southport will relish that factor, it instantly points us to the chances of Smith, who will celebrate his 30th birthday the day before the first round, and that after the most impressive win of his career to date.
It’s not as if his win in Portugal was hard to predict – he had been a conquering force on the Jamega/Algarve Tour before making his way from EuroPro, to Challenge and European level, almost dominating from tee to green, but rarely able to capitalize after a short game that just wouldn’t behave. It was always only a matter of time, and with two of his previous five victories (as a professional) occurring in the last week of October….this time next year, Rodders.
Numbers don’t lie, and in his last 14 completed starts, Smith has only once ranked outside of the top-20 for ‘off-the-tee’, finished within the top-20 for approaches on eight occasions and led the field twice for tee-to-green with six further top-10 rankings. These are stunning figures, including at Le Golf National and Valderrama, so despite poor course figures, I have no doubt he is ready to go again after a week off.
There will be reason why punters would believe Smith is too short at 14/1 but in a season that has recently thrown up statistical fits in the shape of Adrian Otaegui at Valders, Kurt Kitayama (runner-up to Rory McIlroy at Congaree) and Eddie Pepperell, flying, even without that one big finish, it’s tough to ignore the stats.
I’m no fan of lists, but:
- *1st off-the-tee
- *9th in approaches
- *3rd tee-to-green
- *4th for scrambling
- *9th for birdies
- *5th in bogies
- *2nd par-five performance
and now 17th and first for putting at Valderrama and Dom Pedro.
In a limited field where only ten or so can be seriously considered as winners, Jordan is ready to get close to the world’s top echelon and into the majors, his best of those being 9th at the 2017 US PGA, two weeks after his win in Germany.
The list of winners here reads very much like a who’s-who of links specialists, and therefore the afore-mentioned Pepperell must have an obvious chance. I just wonder if his lack of length off the tee will put too much pressure on a thus-far excellent iron game, certainly against the likes of the top few, whilst Antoine Rozner was also strongly considered but has performed nothing other than average in this part of the world, and it’s tough to see him saving those crucial pars, the Frenchman’s short stick currently being worthy of being classed x-rated and several leagues below the brilliance of the wins at Qatar and Dubai.
Instead, at ten points bigger, take a chance that this is a going week for Victor Perez.
Rozner’s compatriot has turned into a very hard-to-read player, but in a field of 60-odd, his very best form stands the closest scrutiny.
Perez’ win at the Dunhill Links in 2019 came via beating a notably wind-positive field – Matt Southgate, Tommy Fleetwood, Tom Lewis and Jordan Smith behind – whilst the form of his top placings also stacks up as tremendously relevant this week.
Two shots behind Lee Westwood in Abu Dhabi in 2020, he was joined in second place by 2019 Nedbank champion Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Louis Oosthuizen, the latter with a host of top-10 finishes at the Gary Player, whilst two-time champion Garcia joined 2012 champ Martin Kaymer in 8th.
Later that season, his runner-up finish at Wentworth behind two-time Dunhill Links Tyrrell Hatton at Wentworth came courtesy of an outstanding approach game, the result linking nicely with Danny Willett, Alex Noren and Seve, all winners at Virginia Water and in Sun City.
Form since has been sporadic, and his win at the Dutch Open was overdue, but it came via another set of stunning tee-to-green figures (13-plus shots over the field), and he carried that on to the European Open at the huge Green Eagle course.
I’m okay with a closing 23rd at the shortened Czech Masters and third at the Italian Open behind Bob McIntyre and Fitzpatrick, whilst he was inside the top-10 going into Sunday at Le Golf National, a venue that Nedbank winners Retief Goosen, Kaymer, Fleetwood and Noren have won at.
Ignore Portugal – Thomas Bjorn and Noren both missed the cut in their previous outings – as a birdie-fest would not have suited, and concentrate on his seasonal top-10 ranking for approaches and tee-to-green. Ranking 7th for ball-striking over the last three months gives an indication of the strength of his current game and he just fits well on that list of winners and placed players.
It was tough to pick between the last pair with ‘ticks’ in all four of my personal list of ‘attributes required’, so I’ll play both, particularly in the top-20 market, where one winner is a profit, two is a ‘Billy’.
With both Yannik Paul and Marcel Schneider, we are taking two of the hottest ball-strikers on the tour, both inside the top-10 for events over the past 12 weeks.
The first of the named Germans, Paul’s first ‘proper’ event at this level was a top-10 at the rain-effected Joburg Open – previously won by Branden Grace and George Coetzee – whilst his runner-up in Belgium, top-20s at Green Eagle, the Barbasol and Barracuda championships, and book-ends of 68 and 66 in Italy point to a player consistent enough in his form.
In fifth place going into payday in France, he matched that eighth place finish when closing in at the Spanish Open.
The 28-year-old was telegraphing a big one, and after a very respectable 21st at Valderrama, finally came good in Mallorca in what was admittedly a fairly weak contest.
Players can do no more than win, though, and with positive figures throughout the season for all driving aspects, he can again match his figures of top-10 for approach, 13th for tee-to-green and greens-in-reg. He will need to, as the short game needs a touch of work, but having won on the Spanish island off a minus putting figure, he knows what needs working on and that something shouldn’t be needed in huge amounts this week.
Almost four years his elder, Schneider is hitting the ball equally well as anyone on tour.
Flitting between the main tour and the Challenge Tour, the german should not need to step down a level if he carries on what seems a long-term wave of excellent ball-striking.
Long yet accurate off the tee seems a good start for the test this week, whilst 19th for tee-to-green will give him plenty of chances on the greens, especially on the crucial par-fours, for which he ranks third over the last 12 weeks.
We always see these quality iron players as strugglers on the greens, but with the emphasis on keeping dropped shots off the card, his decent scrambling stats will help steady any missed birdie chances.
Form-wise he looks very similar to Smith, and even his compatriot, before their respective victories, and his figures since the Catalunya Championship in May are very impressive.
In 19 outings including Girona, the 32-year-old has posted six top-10s, five top-20 finishes and a pair of top-30s.
In second place going into the last day of the three-round Czech Masters (an event won twice by Thomas Pieters, who surely would have disputed favouritism this week) the immediate seventh place in Crans shows an ability to play the altitude courses, whilst his back record shows top-10 finishes at courses as diverse as Green Eagle and the low-scoring Trophee Hassan at Golf du Palais Royal.
Averaging around plus-six for tee-to-green in his last five starts, and off an excellent closing top-10 in Portugal, a result despite, not because of, his flat stick, Scheider can cement his place inside the top-50 and an invitation to Dubai.
Recommended Bets:
Jordan Smith WIN
Victor Perez WIN/TOP-5
Yannik Paul Top-10
Yannik Paul Top-20
Marcel Schneider Top-10
Marcel Schneider Top-20
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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