Opinion & Analysis
2022 Mauritius Open: Betting Picks & Selections
Rather like Ewen Ferguson in Denmark, last weekend saw Adrian Otaegui mugged by a much-improved performance by the eventual winner, this time at the Alfred Dunhill at Leopard Creek.
Take nothing away from either Oliver Wilson or Ockie Strydom, but every so often golf reminds you how frustrating a game it can be, even if making a profit for the week.
One more proper betting event before the novelty of the PNC Championship, and it’s over to the Mauritius Open to give a boost before the delights of the PNC Championship and a well-deserved break.
European golf fans have not seen the Mont Choisy golf course before, but it looks absolutely stunning. It may be without the wildlife of Leopard Creek, but the course, on the island’s north, is breath-taking.
There are few clues to the type of player required for this week’s test and potentially we can look at the designer, Peter Matkovich, who also designed the Heritage course used for the 2015, 2017 and 2019 running of this event, and at the opposite end of the isle.
The last time Mauritius held its championship, Rasmus Hojgaard won the first of his three DP World trophies, beating Renato Paratore and Antoine Rozner in a play-off, whilst both the previous Heritage winners, Dylan Frittelli and George Coetzee also won via a play-off. That may be something or nothing, but check out prices for an unusual four-timer on Matkovich courses.
Coming off a trio of decent graded South African events, it may be prudent to be in form, or at least with confidence in your game, as both Hojgaard and Frittelli used almost polar opposite methods to achieve their victories.
The then 19-year-old ranked top-10 off the tee but outside the top 45 in greens found, whereas Frittelli ranked highly for greens, and had he putted better than his 35th rank, would surely not have needed extra holes to beat Arjun Atwal.
We will go to war with just three selections in a hard-to-read event, but hopefully with some justification for each.
Yes, yes, I know, but Tom McKibbin I have to be with when most big names are not around.
Of course, full respect to both Thomas Detry and Dean Burmester, but when seeing combined odds of around 85/40 for these two, we have to look further down.
The Belgian deserves to be right up the top of the betting market, but it’s certainly not my game to be taking around 11/2 for a player that has never won on the European/DP World Tour or co-sanctioned event, and whilst I am a long-term fan of the South African, his focus is surely making the most of his PGA Tour card in 2023.
19-year-old (20in a week’s time) McKibbin is going to be a superstar.
I covered the young player’s claims in the preview for the Joburg Open. However, as a synopsis, we have a previous top-class junior and amateur playing out of Rory McIlroy’s home club, Holywood, who Padraig Harrington says will “win quick.”
A constant contender throughout his first year on the Challenge Tour, the Northern Irishman’s first three events at the top level have been more than satisfactory.
Whilst the figures put up on the South African swing need ‘careful’ interpreting, the finishes do not. 18th, 15th and 13th over the last three weeks, the last two (at the long Blair Atholl and last week at Leopard Creek) see him rank highly for greens-in-reg, perfect here. Want to be a bit cynical? Okay, scroll down to when he was 10th at Galgorm Castle in August, and witness a field-topping performance off the tee and a ranking of 4th for tee-to-green.
Put that in your calculations when reading that, in his opinion, he hasn’t played that great!
“Yeah pretty happy, I've been solid. The last two weeks I haven’t played great, the first week I was pretty solid but these last two weeks it’s nice to see a few good finishes for not having my best stuff,’ sahttps://t.co/lJCXw8hX52
— Irish Golfer (@IrishGolferMag) December 11, 2022
McKibbin could make many people look silly if he cannot make an impact over the next 12 months, but I reckon they/we are safe.
There is a theme running through many of the top finishers here, with Crans, Kenya, Valderrama and Qatar featuring heavily alongside the more obvious Joburg and Tshwane events, a series of connections that lead to a much more speculative wager.
Take a punt with Swede Jens Fahrbring, an impossible-to-read player, but one who can pop up when least expected, and whose best form might see him challenge for a top-10 at least.
The 38-year-old journeyman constantly flits between the two European tours, winning two events, in 2013 and 2015, at Challenge Tour level – in Norway and the Czech Republic – but again had to battle through the six-round Q-school to gain his card for 2023.
He made an immediate impact back at the top level with a third place finish at the South African Open, playing in the final group before succumbing by a couple of shots to Lawrence, a previous winner at Joburg and Crans.
The Swede lost a play-off for the Kenya Open at Muthaiga in 2018 (winner Lorenzo Gagli was runner-up at Crans in 2019), leaning towards a connection with Kurt Kitayama, winner of this week’s event in 2018 and runner-up at Karen, whilst Lawrence was also a silver medalist at Muthaiga to Ashun Wu, 6th at Crans and 7th at the Dom Pedro, one of Coetzee’s favoured tracks!
While I’m on a roll, Fahrbring’s 10th at the 2020 British Masters at Close House was behind previous Mauritius play-off combatants Paratore and Hojgaard and third-placed Justin Harding (winner in Kenya and Qatar).
I’ll fully admit I have no idea how he will play this week, and I reckon nor does he, but it’s clear his driving is to blame for much of what might be stopping him from being a consistently good golfer. He’ll know that, though, and a slight improvement off the tee may be enough to grab a nice profit in some way.
The improving David Ravetto was awfully tempting, but he’s in that 2023 preview and that will have to do for now, so row along with improving Nathan Kimsey for the last leg of a small staking week.
The Lincolnshire player has certainly taken his time showing his best on the main tours after an impressive amateur career.
A member of the best of home team events, Kimsey was selected for the 2013 Walker Cup alongside the likes of Matt Fitzpatrick, Jordan Smith and Callum Shinkwin, halving his first day match against a certain Justin Thomas.
Bubbling under the top level, the now 29-year-old became the first player ever to come through every stage of Q-school and win the final stage, in the process beating Eddie Pepperell and Tom Lewis to the hard-earned gold medal.
WINNER ?@NathanKimsey wins #ETQSchool with a 13 under par total pic.twitter.com/cX0DDldbo7
— DP World Tour Q-School (@DPWTQSchool) November 17, 2016
As with many a ‘future star’, things haven’t always worked out, but 2022 has certainly been his year with a play-off win at Le Vaudreuil (an event that Kenyan winner Aaron Rai also won) preceding three top-six finishes before a victory at the Challenge Tour finale meant he gained champion status.
Past winners of the Challenge Tour Order of Merit that have won at the top level include JB Hansen, Jordan Smith, ‘Beef’ Johnston and Tommy Fleetwood, so whilst Kimsey might have a bit of work to do, he is another to have impressed in the three co-sanctioned events in South Africa.
Lying in fourth place at the halfway stage in Joburg, a poor third round led to an overall 13th place finish, whilst again he was good to halfway (16th) at Blair Atholl, a course far too long for him. Last week, he again caught the eye, moving from 31st place after the opening round to lie in second place at halfway.
That Friday round was spoiled only by a final hole bogey, the other 17 holes comprising two eagles and five birdies, and it was maybe a reaction to that impressive outing that caused a third round 74, moving in the wrong direction.
With nothing dropping on payday, Kimsey impressed with his final nine holes, recording four birdies in five holes before a late bogey saw him post a 3-under 69 to finish just outside of the front page.
Full of confidence and playing well, this short track means the longer hitters won’t overawe him. Kimsey can exploit some excellent recent performances with the flat stick, something very much lacking at this lower level of the DP World Tour.
Recommended Bets:
- Tom McKibbin – Win/Top-5
- Nathan Kimsey – Win/Top-5
- Jens Fahrbring – Win/Top-5/Top-20
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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