Opinion & Analysis
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Tips: Back this European to conquer Bay Hill
Farewell to the Honda Classic, as we know it.
Despite being one of the few early-season events not to be honoured with elevated status, the Plantation produced a thrilling play-off between an emotional Chris Kirk and mini-tour legend Eric Cole, with Monday qualifier Ryan Gerard finishing fourth on only his second ever PGA Tour start.
Who says you need the top stars to make an event enthralling?
Still, there’s nowt better than having them there, and the increased purse plus the run-in to The Masters sees a field of the highest class assemble at ‘Arnie’s Place’, Bay Hill.
Let’s not mess about, Bay Hill is tough. Rough is penal, greens are often faster than average, all making players worry about their placing rather than their power. Unless you are Bryson DeChambeau, who did this at the par-5 6th hole on his way to victory in 2021:
Of course, few, is any, are going to achieve the ludicrous feat, let alone try it, but the par-5s are essential to making any score around here.
With the short holes longer than the norm, and the par-4s proving tough to negotiate, recent winners have found their scores enhanced only by the par-5s. For example, the defending champ Scottie Scheffler was 12-under for the long holes last year when recording a 5-under total, good enough for a single shot victory; DeChambeau finished 11-under, adding just one shot to his score for the longer holes; Tyrrell Hatton triumphed through horrendous conditions in 4-under, taking advantage of his 6-under par on the fives, and whilst Frani Molinari is a touch of an outlier, previous champion Rory McIlroy has recorded a par-5 average of almost 9-under in eight starts, his average finishing position being just inside the top-10.
Add this to a well of evidence that tee-to-green prowess is vital for victory, and this week’s winner will well deserve the prestigious title, particularly if they survive the forecast winds.
Main Bet – Tyrrell Hatton
Like him or loathe him, Tyrrell Hatton is one player (alongside the likes of Jordan Smith) that should be permanently mic’d up on the course.
He hates his clubs, the course, and even the most revered of major tracks. A month ago, he even wished he hadn’t made a monster eagle putt in Dubai to make the cut!
He has, of course, exploited the image to the full, being one of the highest-regarded ‘Angry Golfers’, and it’s great fun, showing a personality that many hide on the course.
Away from all that, the 31-year-old is a top class golfer that has graced the world’s top-50 for over seven years straight, and with his clear fondness for windy, Open Championship conditions, it is no wonder he thrives at Bay Hill, site of success for many challengers at the only non- US major.
Hatton’s game is straightforward to read.
The part-time Orlando resident has had six outings at this event, finishing fourth on debut, winning in 2020, and running-up last year. He has an average par-5 score of seven-under, having never recorded worse than six under-the-card.
During his win, Hatton ranked in the top five for tee-to-green, a performance he repeated a year later. To prove his current wellbeing, the selection sits in the top-20 for the season, averaging around 24th for his four outings of 2023.
Key to Hatton is his ability to prove top grade for his driving, allowing him to play approaches away from the rough, and in four of the last five outings (including and since the DP World Tour Championship) he has been listed in the top-12 for accuracy off the peg.
Hatton repeats form at certain tracks. His record at the Alfred Dunhill Links is exemplary – a pair of wins and two second-place finishes – whilst he has five top 10 finishes from nine starts in Abu Dhabi. From nine outings at the DP Worlds, Hatton has two second places and three further top eight finishes, whilst from the same amount of outings around the corner at the Dubai Desert Classic, his record reads three top fives and an eighth.
In form, back to a track he (might) like, and with conditions in his favour, he can continue the great run shown by the likes of fellow UK players Lee Westwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose, Graeme McDowell and Greg Owen, all of whom finished in the top two in their respective years.
Danger – Scottie Scheffler
Danger – Will Zalatoris
There cannot be more to say about the world number one, Scottie Scheffler.
In the top five for the season’s tee-to-green stats, he ranks number one for ball-striking over three and six months, leading the way for overall driving and greens-in-regulation over 12 weeks.
Plus figures litter his card, with an average tee-to-green number of over 7 for his last five outings, off equally impressive driving and approach stats.
He led the tee-to-green stats here in 2020 when recording 10-under for the par-5s, improving that by one shot a year later, and comes here off a run of 12/1/11/7/9/3, the victory coming as defending champion at Pheonix.
There is a gnat’s hair between the 26-year-old and the flying Jon Rahm, but if conditions worsen as expected, I’d be certain only one of these is made to deal with it.
There may well be a time when Will Zalatoris turns full-on Scheffler. He wins and then wins again. And again.
Surely it is only an injury that paused the progress made in his first couple of years as a professional, a stunning spell that saw him finish in the top six at Winged Foot – his first major – as a rookie, second at Augusta and at Southern Hills last year.
Between his debut on the tour late in 2020 and today, WillyZ has recorded 11 top-10s, four runners-up and his sole win, and last completed start of ’22, at St.Jude last August.
Having had to miss the second half of the season with back issues, it was no surprise to see him take his time reaching top form in 2023, his first three outings (11th in Hawaii, 36th at La Quinta and a missed cut at Torrey Pines) seeming to be a chance to get back to full fitness.
That, he did last time at Riviera, a course he likes based on his previous two outings (26th, 15th) when his tee-to-green game found a bundle, eventually stopping the clock at over +10 strokes.
Two outings here have rewarded Zalatoris with a closing 10th on debut and a disguised 38th here last year, when he was 12th going into Sunday.
Although his putting stroke has its detractors, but he’s at plus numbers for all outings this year and this won’t be a birdie-fest.
He’s just about on the limit for price, but if there is a player ready to storm the golf world, it’s going to be WillyZ.
Others – Rickie Fowler
Like good friend Jason Day, it was only a matter of time before 34-year-old Fowler came back to something approaching his best.
As a five-time PGA Tour winner with 12 top-10 finishes in majors and two European Tour wins, his fall from grace since his victory at the 2019 Phoenix Open has been tough to watch.
From top-10 at Scottsdale, Fowler dropped through the top-100 at the end of 2022, a mixture of factors on and off the course affecting his golf, leading former coach Butch Harmon to comment, “It seems like all the work we did, trying to change the swing to get the left arm up on plane instead of so flat, that he has kind of thrown that out. I don’t really have a chance to talk Rickie very often and haven’t seen him.”
However, since firing much of his team and linking back up with the legendary coach, Fowler has seen things improve month by month.
Starting with a sixth at Silverado and a second place at the Zozo (holding every chance over the weekend), the man in orange has made all four cuts in 2023, starting with a consistent three rounds of 68 at The American Express – perhaps, significantly, as we go into next week’s Players, a Pete Dye course – then finishing 11th at Torrey Pines (55th to ninth place at halfway) 10th at TPC Scottsdale, and a closing 20th at Riviera last time out.
At the last three events – all elevated, and therefore with deeper fields – Fowler has been top-10s for iron play, resulting in progressive tee-to-green figures of 26th, 22nd at 12th.
Last season, when in no real form, Fowler recorded 8-under for the par-5s, some 22 shots better than his effort for the fours, a clear indication that he was struggling.
Currently in 70th and making a steady approach back to the world’s top 50, Fowler may yet fulfil his new old coach’s prediction:
There are really good things in Rickie Fowler’s future that we’re going to see
Recommended Bets:
- Scottie Scheffler WIN
- Will Zalatoris WIN/TOP-5
- Tyrrell Hatton WIN/TOP-5
- Rickie Fowler WIN/TOP-5
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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