Opinion & Analysis
The best bets for the 2023 Players Championship
In almost a month to the day, the golfing world celebrates the start of The Masters.
Traditionally, this is the week when the hype really ramps up, with The Players Championship being the first sighting of a top-class full field. That has changed, of course, with the introduction of the PGA Tour’s elevated events, a series of lucrative tournaments that have managed to tempt those that previously might have felt like a week off.
Since January, there have been four such tournaments with season-long contenders for the world number one slot winning three.
Jon Rahm won the opening Tournament of Champions and the Genesis, whilst Scottie Scheffler defended his Phoenix Open crown. Yes, Kurt Kitayama won the most recent – the Arnold Palmer Invitational – but he had to hold a host of challengers, including Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth amongst others. When the best are present, it takes an almighty effort to beat them.
Such are the financial rewards (let’s park ‘legacy’ for the moment), players can no longer aim themselves at Augusta week and need to be ready weeks before. And that’s what makes this week’s ‘fifth’ major so fascinating given we have seen many of the best show their hand.
To the event itself, and Sawgrass never fails to enthrall. Indeed, with the constant that is Pete Dye’s feature track, it has far more in common with Augusta than just quality of field.
Sawgrass asks players to find the right part of the fairway, to have their irons on point and to scramble like a demon should they miss the dancefloor.
At under 7200-yards, there are lessons for all designers that want to make a challenging course that doesn’t succumb to bombers, although distance can never hurt. Certainly it can be said to have aided the three winners since the event moved to a windier and wetter March, the trio averaging 14th for driving distance.
Overwhelmingly, though, this is a second shot course.
The last two champions Cam Smith and Justin Thomas ranked fifth for strokes-gained approach, whilst McIlroy was listed as just one place behind those in sixth.
Indeed, it is Rory that gives the best clue to this event after the move in month and the change in greens:
“So just to be a little more aggressive, get a shorter club in your hand, and even when you are aggressive and you miss, it’s a touch easier to get yourself back into position. The rough isn’t as long or as gnarly. You’re running into that pine straw and you still have some sort of a shot and some control of your ball. And then when you miss the greens, you’re not having to contend with that Bermuda, you’re not having to guess, how is this going to come out, whatever. So it lends itself to more aggressive play. I don’t know if the course is easier or not. We’ll see what the stroke average is at the end of the day. But because I think it’s playing longer, it’ll play longer for most of the guys, and I think it should all even out. But I definitely like the golf course the way it is in March.”
Best bet – Viktor Hovland
Current joint-favourite Rory McIlroy makes far more appeal than Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler from the top of the market.
The Irishman could easily have won at Bay Hill on Sunday, a final hole putt going close enough to give his fans a shout. That would have made it three wins in his last six events, and having won here in 2019, and ranking top-10 for tee-to-green in almost every event since time began, he looks a lot more solid that world number one Rahm, who has to put a poor Bay Hill behind him.
The Spaniard was going for his sixth win in ten starts and after an opening 65, looked very much the one to beat. His fade away to 39th, plus moderate course form is enough to give him the elbow at single figures.
Scheffler also just missed out at the Arnold Palmer, his birdie putt on 17 giving the hole a look as it went by, and maybe affecting his play on 18. He looks unflappable in the most part but will need to overcome last season’s 55th place finish, surprising given he went into Sawgrass off a run of 1/7/1, and won back-to-back straight after, including at the Dye-designed Austin CC.
‘NOOOO’ shout the masses as the name Viktor Hovland is put up this week, but I reckon this is the time he steps up in similar fashion to Cam Smith.
Buoyed by the likes of Keegan Bradley (in seventh and fifth in his last four starts here) and even Russell Knox (two life-time top-20s here and sixth last year) this course rewards quality ball-strikers. Those, amongst others, show that even those with frailties on the greens can do something here, and the 25-year-old Norwegian is a perfect fit.
Of course, there is nothing wrong with the Norwegian’s game from tee-to-green, ranking an average of 5th for driving since Pebble Beach, and 25th for ball-striking over the last three months. The issue is clearly with the short game and it’s one that many cannot overlook, but I’m happy enough to take the chance at the price, for a contender for a place amongst the elite.
Despite ranking down the bottom for his short game – particularly during rounds one and two – Hovland was beaten just four shots by Kitayama, a player that found more than his A1 game from tee to green. Given that, and his efforts in top-class PGA Tour competition, and I’m happy to be the outlier.
Twice winner at Mayakoba, where finding the fairway is a big advantage, and also at the Hero World Challenge – knockabout, maybe, but much of the world’s best were behind – he brings in a runner-up at Bay Hill in 2022 to go alongside Sunday’s top-10, top-five finishes at Riviera and a fourth place at Sedgefield where half-a-dozen Players champions have also won.
Pete Dye form is scant but Hovland has an 11th at River Highlands in his second of two starts there, and was top-30 when the USPGA was held at Kiawah Island.
In two outings here, the Norwegian star missed the cut on debut before finishing in the top 10 last year, leading the field in tee-to-green. Sure, his short game cost him nearly six shots of the 14 he made but he’s just a good chip short of being back in the world’s top-10. He can start here.
Max Homa is a player that, for some reason, seems easy to read. Classic, shot-makers tracks suit, and with an ability to grind out pars, the 32-year-old can confirm his startling improvement by contending here, but I felt he was also worth serious consideration for Augusta, for which he is currently 10 points bigger.
Equally, in their own way Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, and Tony Finau must have claims should everything click for four days, but it’s tough to choose between them.
Dangers – Sahith Theegala and Sam Burns
Instead, I’m leaving that illustrious group and taking a chance that Sam Burns comes alive again in Florida.
Winning here after two missed-cuts would be unusual, but his price has drifted to a big enough number to take the chance that this two-time winner of the Valspar Championship can also repeat an admirable effort of just 12 months ago.
Innisbrook clearly suits the 26-year-old, who beat Keegan Bradley (two top-10s here) to his first Valspar, whilst, before his ownback-to-back efforts, Paul Casey (3rd and 5th at Sawgrass) did the same, beating Jason Kokrak (top-10 2021) and Louis Oosthuizen (runner-up), and Patrick Reed and Tiger Woods (twice Players champion).
Burns has never really taken to Bay Hill, a ninth place the definite highlight from a handful of outings, but he was 26th here last year on his second event outing, leading at halfway after an opening 68/69, and finding the putter his best club.
Two weekends off look poor, but a glance back just a month ago sees Burns finish a fast-finishing sixth at Phoenix and 11th at the American Express, where rounds of 64 (twice) make his current performance hard to fathom.
Burns is playing around with drivers at the moment, but as a long-term member of the top-20 club for all-round driving, he will figure it out, and, at the price offered, it’s worth taking the chance it will be this week.
This will be a tough event for a maiden to win so, even if might be ‘unofficial’, Sahith Theegala‘s victory at the team QBE Shootout gives some backing to his chance.
The 25-year-old college superstar should have been at home with at least one trophy before his win in Naples (Florida) having led both the 2021 Fortinet Championship and last season’s Phoenix Open well into the finishing straight.
Both those efforts showed an understandable naivety in his game, but he showed he belonged at the top with a 13/15/28 finish at the big-money FedEx Cup events.
Since then, apart from the victory alongside Tom Hoge, the Pepperdine graduate has made 11 from 12 cuts, including finishing in sixth place back at the Fortinet, a fast-closing fifth and second at the Zozo and RSM respectively, fourth at Torrey Pines, sixth at Riviera and last week’s 14th at Bay Hill.
The latest result sits nicely with a seventh at Valspar, his ranking of 30th for greens over the last three months, top-10 for par-4s over the same period, and a solid pair of top-five listings for irons and tee-to-green at both the Farmers and Genesis.
With the likes of Homa now established away from the bunch, we are looking for the next star to shine, and Theegala, reminding me of the early days of Rickie Fowler with his confident short game, could very well be the one.
2023 Players Championship Recommended Bets:
- Viktor Hovland – WIN/T5
- Sahith Theegala – WIN/T10
- Sam Burns – WIN/T10/T20
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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P
Mar 7, 2023 at 10:44 am
No Rickie? He’s won here before, and he’s been doing better recently. Rahm can’t handle the Florida winds