Opinion & Analysis
The best bets for the 2023 Valspar Championship

You’ll read it everywhere. Valspar at Copperhead is tough.
If you don’t know by now, the 7300-odd yard par 71 loses its one shot on a regular course by way of five par-3s, no longer to be called ‘the short holes’ due to four-fifths of them being over 200 yards. In that respect par-3 performance might be redundant in favour of the stats for long iron play.
Instead, players need to hold on for dear life when facing the nine par-4s and get moving on the scorable longer holes, as demonstrated by the last two back-to-back champions, Sam Burns and Paul Casey, who have dominated this event since 2018.
Burns recorded 17-under when winning his first Valspar, with just two further shots coming from anything other than the ‘fives’, and followed up last season with the same winning score, the par-5s contributing 10 of those and adding to an outstanding performance on the par-4s.
Casey’s two victories were much tougher and, when victorious in 2018, he shot 8-under for the long holes (winning score 10-under) and 15-under a year later, his winning score being only 8-under the card.
Since 2010, only Gary Woodland has scored on debut, so whilst there are a heap of quality rookies here this week, expect the experienced players to take the lead.
Best Bet – Keegan Bradley
Sam Burns attempts a rare three-peat this week after winning back-to-back here, and it’s hard to put anyone off him.
Previous to two missed cuts, he had warmed up at the Tournament of Champions and finished 11th and sixth at the American Express and Phoenix, and bounced back with a 35th at Sawgrass last week when backed by this column.
In fifth place after round one, and inside the top-20 at halfway, we maybe expected a bit better and whilst he will be alive again around here, betting him a one-fifth of last week’s number makes no appeal.
Instead, trust Keegan Bradley to reverse 2020 form with the winner, and at a slightly bigger price.
The 36-year-old is one of the most frustrating players to watch, with his pre-shot routine as annoying as that of Billy Horschel et al, but the column isn’t about style – as the wife will tell you.
Bradley calls himself in this event after a mixed 2023 and one that shows running-up at Torrey Pines to Max Homa (a proven player of classic, tough tracks), 20th at Scottsdale (11th after round one), and 10th at Bay Hill , where his good opening round was spoilt by a second-round 77 before coming again.
In his three most recently completed full-field events Bradley has averaged better than 25th for driving accuracy, 20th for approaches, 16th for tee-to-green, and around 22nd for putting.
He was fancied by many to go well at Sawgrass last week after a good recent record (5/29/16/7) but after an opening 70 put him in 23rd place, he bombed with a Friday 78, but is fancied to bounce back on a course at which he led for three rounds in 2021.
Dangers – Adam Hadwin and Ben Griffin
I took a long look at Wyndham Clark but think that, despite some better-than-it-looks course form, he may need help getting over the line, and Adam Hadwin looks a safer, if slightly less interesting, wager.
There are a few players that telegraph events they will do well at, and when, and the 35-year-old is up there with the Homa’s of the world.
When Hadwin plays well here, he comes off a run of form, and when not….
His victory here, the only PGA Tour title so far, followed a run of 2/49/12/39/34, whilst he defended valiantly in 2018, eventually finishing 12th after a form sequence of 6/9.
Missed-cuts in 2019 and 2021 were preceded by missed-cuts, whilst a bounce back to form last year (7th) came via a previous top-10 at The Players.
So to this season, where Hadwin has made five from six cuts including 18th at the American Express, 10th at the Phoenix (led at halfway), and 13th last week at The Players, all of which show a top grade driving accuracy figure and a long-hole performance that has seen him rise to 34th in par-5 birdies or better.
Correlative form works with a seventh and 25th at Houston tying in with both previous winners, whilst an eighth place at Colonial works against both those, Spieth and Kokrak amongst others.
Par-5 performance here is steady rather than spectacular, but he makes up for that with an average bogey rate of around 7, lower than both Burns and Casey in their Innisbrook careers.
Hadwin’s Twitter feed is a bit of fun, again reminding slightly of Homa, and it’s that attitude that might be required for a course that can bite back.
Don’t ask about the missed 3 footer on 18 to top 10 at the players ?
— Jessica Hadwin (@jessicahadwin) March 13, 2023
Ben Griffin may be making his debut here, but that’s been true of his efforts at all seven of his 2023 events at this level.
The story of giving up golf for an alternative career is covered elsewhere, so just concentrate on his golf and it’s an encouraging tale.
After missing the cut at the opening Fortinet Championship, Griffin lay inside the top-10 at the halfway mark of the Sanderson Farms, recovering again on Sunday after a third round 73.
There wasn’t much wrong with the effort at the Shriners, where three rounds under 70 were not enough to see him inside the top-30, but after two weeks’ rest, he was in position to win the Bermuda Championship at the end of October.
Griffin went into the final round tied with proven PGA Tour winner Seamus Power, finding himself in front with eight holes to play.
The PGA Tour site reports that”…as winds whipped at Port Royal GC, Griffin met his learning curve. He made four consecutive bogeys on Nos. 12-15–including a hooked tee shot and unplayable on the par-4 14th–followed by a costly hooked tee shot into a penalty area on the long par-3 16th en route to double bogey. He finished with a 1-over 72 and 17-under total, two back of Seamus Power’s winning total.”
Naturally, whilst disappointed, Griffin saw the huge merit in this effort, commenting:
“… honestly, I need to be almost a little less comfortable in certain situations, because I need to make sure I’m executing and being confident with my swings. I just let a couple get loose and I missed it on the wrong side on a few holes down the stretch, would short-side myself downwind with chips and couldn’t get it close. I just put myself in too many difficult spots to come out as the champion this week.”
Given he’s only been back full-time for just over a year, the efforts at Sedgefield and Port Royal, show he still has the game and attitude to make his way in 2023.
Finishing results for the year were also progressive enough, with three made cuts that include lying top 20 after the opening round at Mayakoba, never being out of the top 16 at Houston and being in second place after the first round of the RSM Classic (finished 29th) in an event that took place just days after he felt ill.
Griffin has now kicked-on in 2023, and he has found himself in the top-10 at some point in four of his seven events, including Hawaii, Torrey and last week at Sawgrass, all in a better field than he faces this week.
Griffin can call on the past times he was playing with the Schefflers and Morikawas of the golfing world and go to town in an event that should suit his scrambling and putting prowess.
Take a chance – Eric Cole
Multiple minor league champion, Eric Cole, may be late to the PGA Tour party, but this is one hell of a time to qualify, and he’s certainly making up for lost time.
After 56 wins at the much lower level, the 34-year-old finally qualified for his card via a third place finish at last season’s Korn Ferry Tour Championship and after a slow start, has now established himself as one of the rookies to watch for 2023.
A worst-of-event 70 at the Sony was followed by a similar card at the American Express, where he sat inside the top-10 after the first round before finishing top-40.
After an understandable missed-cut at Torrey, Cole followed an excellent 15th at Pebble Beach with a career effort, losing a play-off to proven winner Chris Kirk, at the Honda Classic, and gaining an invite to Sawgrass.
That seemed to be the start of serious interest from the media, and Cole is up for it:
“There’s a few more people noticing what I’m doing,” Cole said before the start of The Players. “And that’s something that comes with good golf. And I’m all about playing good golf. So, you know, it’s kind of an exciting time for me.”
A missed-cut at Bay Hill is nothing worth worrying about (“I just didn’t play well. And Bay Hill was so difficult that you didn’t have a whole lot of room to recover”)
If anywhere will destroy a player, it is likely to be Sawgrass, particularly after being bashed around the week before. However, whilst his opening round was filled with nerves and, perhaps naive, he carded five birdies, four bogeys and a double on No. 18 (his ninth hole) in which his drive took an unfortunate bounce into the water.
He learned from that, though, and followed up with three progressive rounds of 73/69 and 68, coming from 65th at halfway to 27th by close of play, recording six birdies and a pair of bogeys.
Interestingly, Cole’s tee-to-green game improved dramatically as the week went on, ranking 122nd after round one, and 44th, 17th and eighth over the next three days. So good was the final day that Cole led the overall strokes-gained-total in what was one of the strongest fields that could be assembled (without you-know-who).
At around three figures, Cole offers opportunity in many of the ‘top 10/20’ markets as well as believing that, should he need to get up-and-down to win a trophy, as at Honda, he may well do so.
Recommended Bets:
Keegan Bradley – Win
Adam Hadwin – Win/Top-5
Ben Griffin – Win/Top-5
Eric Cole – Win/Top-5/Top-20
Opinion & Analysis
The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Podcasts
Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Opinion & Analysis
On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.