Opinion & Analysis
The best bets for the 2023 Valspar Championship
You’ll read it everywhere. Valspar at Copperhead is tough.
If you don’t know by now, the 7300-odd yard par 71 loses its one shot on a regular course by way of five par-3s, no longer to be called ‘the short holes’ due to four-fifths of them being over 200 yards. In that respect par-3 performance might be redundant in favour of the stats for long iron play.
Instead, players need to hold on for dear life when facing the nine par-4s and get moving on the scorable longer holes, as demonstrated by the last two back-to-back champions, Sam Burns and Paul Casey, who have dominated this event since 2018.
Burns recorded 17-under when winning his first Valspar, with just two further shots coming from anything other than the ‘fives’, and followed up last season with the same winning score, the par-5s contributing 10 of those and adding to an outstanding performance on the par-4s.
Casey’s two victories were much tougher and, when victorious in 2018, he shot 8-under for the long holes (winning score 10-under) and 15-under a year later, his winning score being only 8-under the card.
Since 2010, only Gary Woodland has scored on debut, so whilst there are a heap of quality rookies here this week, expect the experienced players to take the lead.
Best Bet – Keegan Bradley
Sam Burns attempts a rare three-peat this week after winning back-to-back here, and it’s hard to put anyone off him.
Previous to two missed cuts, he had warmed up at the Tournament of Champions and finished 11th and sixth at the American Express and Phoenix, and bounced back with a 35th at Sawgrass last week when backed by this column.
In fifth place after round one, and inside the top-20 at halfway, we maybe expected a bit better and whilst he will be alive again around here, betting him a one-fifth of last week’s number makes no appeal.
Instead, trust Keegan Bradley to reverse 2020 form with the winner, and at a slightly bigger price.
The 36-year-old is one of the most frustrating players to watch, with his pre-shot routine as annoying as that of Billy Horschel et al, but the column isn’t about style – as the wife will tell you.
Bradley calls himself in this event after a mixed 2023 and one that shows running-up at Torrey Pines to Max Homa (a proven player of classic, tough tracks), 20th at Scottsdale (11th after round one), and 10th at Bay Hill , where his good opening round was spoilt by a second-round 77 before coming again.
In his three most recently completed full-field events Bradley has averaged better than 25th for driving accuracy, 20th for approaches, 16th for tee-to-green, and around 22nd for putting.
He was fancied by many to go well at Sawgrass last week after a good recent record (5/29/16/7) but after an opening 70 put him in 23rd place, he bombed with a Friday 78, but is fancied to bounce back on a course at which he led for three rounds in 2021.
Dangers – Adam Hadwin and Ben Griffin
I took a long look at Wyndham Clark but think that, despite some better-than-it-looks course form, he may need help getting over the line, and Adam Hadwin looks a safer, if slightly less interesting, wager.
There are a few players that telegraph events they will do well at, and when, and the 35-year-old is up there with the Homa’s of the world.
When Hadwin plays well here, he comes off a run of form, and when not….
His victory here, the only PGA Tour title so far, followed a run of 2/49/12/39/34, whilst he defended valiantly in 2018, eventually finishing 12th after a form sequence of 6/9.
Missed-cuts in 2019 and 2021 were preceded by missed-cuts, whilst a bounce back to form last year (7th) came via a previous top-10 at The Players.
So to this season, where Hadwin has made five from six cuts including 18th at the American Express, 10th at the Phoenix (led at halfway), and 13th last week at The Players, all of which show a top grade driving accuracy figure and a long-hole performance that has seen him rise to 34th in par-5 birdies or better.
Correlative form works with a seventh and 25th at Houston tying in with both previous winners, whilst an eighth place at Colonial works against both those, Spieth and Kokrak amongst others.
Par-5 performance here is steady rather than spectacular, but he makes up for that with an average bogey rate of around 7, lower than both Burns and Casey in their Innisbrook careers.
Hadwin’s Twitter feed is a bit of fun, again reminding slightly of Homa, and it’s that attitude that might be required for a course that can bite back.
Don’t ask about the missed 3 footer on 18 to top 10 at the players ?
— Jessica Hadwin (@jessicahadwin) March 13, 2023
Ben Griffin may be making his debut here, but that’s been true of his efforts at all seven of his 2023 events at this level.
The story of giving up golf for an alternative career is covered elsewhere, so just concentrate on his golf and it’s an encouraging tale.
After missing the cut at the opening Fortinet Championship, Griffin lay inside the top-10 at the halfway mark of the Sanderson Farms, recovering again on Sunday after a third round 73.
There wasn’t much wrong with the effort at the Shriners, where three rounds under 70 were not enough to see him inside the top-30, but after two weeks’ rest, he was in position to win the Bermuda Championship at the end of October.
Griffin went into the final round tied with proven PGA Tour winner Seamus Power, finding himself in front with eight holes to play.
The PGA Tour site reports that”…as winds whipped at Port Royal GC, Griffin met his learning curve. He made four consecutive bogeys on Nos. 12-15–including a hooked tee shot and unplayable on the par-4 14th–followed by a costly hooked tee shot into a penalty area on the long par-3 16th en route to double bogey. He finished with a 1-over 72 and 17-under total, two back of Seamus Power’s winning total.”
Naturally, whilst disappointed, Griffin saw the huge merit in this effort, commenting:
“… honestly, I need to be almost a little less comfortable in certain situations, because I need to make sure I’m executing and being confident with my swings. I just let a couple get loose and I missed it on the wrong side on a few holes down the stretch, would short-side myself downwind with chips and couldn’t get it close. I just put myself in too many difficult spots to come out as the champion this week.”
Given he’s only been back full-time for just over a year, the efforts at Sedgefield and Port Royal, show he still has the game and attitude to make his way in 2023.
Finishing results for the year were also progressive enough, with three made cuts that include lying top 20 after the opening round at Mayakoba, never being out of the top 16 at Houston and being in second place after the first round of the RSM Classic (finished 29th) in an event that took place just days after he felt ill.
Griffin has now kicked-on in 2023, and he has found himself in the top-10 at some point in four of his seven events, including Hawaii, Torrey and last week at Sawgrass, all in a better field than he faces this week.
Griffin can call on the past times he was playing with the Schefflers and Morikawas of the golfing world and go to town in an event that should suit his scrambling and putting prowess.
Take a chance – Eric Cole
Multiple minor league champion, Eric Cole, may be late to the PGA Tour party, but this is one hell of a time to qualify, and he’s certainly making up for lost time.
After 56 wins at the much lower level, the 34-year-old finally qualified for his card via a third place finish at last season’s Korn Ferry Tour Championship and after a slow start, has now established himself as one of the rookies to watch for 2023.
A worst-of-event 70 at the Sony was followed by a similar card at the American Express, where he sat inside the top-10 after the first round before finishing top-40.
After an understandable missed-cut at Torrey, Cole followed an excellent 15th at Pebble Beach with a career effort, losing a play-off to proven winner Chris Kirk, at the Honda Classic, and gaining an invite to Sawgrass.
That seemed to be the start of serious interest from the media, and Cole is up for it:
“There’s a few more people noticing what I’m doing,” Cole said before the start of The Players. “And that’s something that comes with good golf. And I’m all about playing good golf. So, you know, it’s kind of an exciting time for me.”
A missed-cut at Bay Hill is nothing worth worrying about (“I just didn’t play well. And Bay Hill was so difficult that you didn’t have a whole lot of room to recover”)
If anywhere will destroy a player, it is likely to be Sawgrass, particularly after being bashed around the week before. However, whilst his opening round was filled with nerves and, perhaps naive, he carded five birdies, four bogeys and a double on No. 18 (his ninth hole) in which his drive took an unfortunate bounce into the water.
He learned from that, though, and followed up with three progressive rounds of 73/69 and 68, coming from 65th at halfway to 27th by close of play, recording six birdies and a pair of bogeys.
Interestingly, Cole’s tee-to-green game improved dramatically as the week went on, ranking 122nd after round one, and 44th, 17th and eighth over the next three days. So good was the final day that Cole led the overall strokes-gained-total in what was one of the strongest fields that could be assembled (without you-know-who).
At around three figures, Cole offers opportunity in many of the ‘top 10/20’ markets as well as believing that, should he need to get up-and-down to win a trophy, as at Honda, he may well do so.
Recommended Bets:
Keegan Bradley – Win
Adam Hadwin – Win/Top-5
Ben Griffin – Win/Top-5
Eric Cole – Win/Top-5/Top-20
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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