Opinion & Analysis
The best bets to win the 2023 Masters
So here it is, it’s the Masters, everybody’s having fun.
So said Noddy Holder, and that without realising this is the most fascinating of the recent Masters. Yeah, including that one when Tiger did the ‘impossible.’ Again.
There are pages and pages written about Augusta National, and readers will find the information in a myriad of places, including the official Masters course index.

The course has its infamous nuances – the dog-legs with reverse slopes and the ultra-fast greens, but to combat the lengthier players Augusta made significant changes over the last couple of years.
In 2022, the organisers extended the par-4 11th hole -‘Dogwood’ – by 35 yards, whilst also adding 20 yards to the par-5 15th, giving players a little more to think about when judging an aggressive second shot over Rae’s Creek.
This year they’ve made a hugely significant change to ‘Azelea’, the famous par-5 13th hole, adding 35 yards but also making the hole far more claustrophobic from the tee.
For reference this was the tee shot last year ? https://t.co/si8qjpT3Zc pic.twitter.com/l55tC53wcr
— Joe I (@TourPicks) April 1, 2023
It’s enough that we now have changes that might just stop the regular eagles, but the current weather forecast suggests the week goes from bad to worse in terms of wind and rain, though for viewers it could make this the most open of Masters. For us sadists, this is great news!
And then there is LIV.
No fewer than 18 golf ‘rebels’ tee it up against their former PGA Tour colleagues this year and they could not have timed it better.
Four-time major champ Brooks Koepka was victorious in Orlando last weekend, with Patrick Reed and Dustin Johnson close behind. Although looking to carry an injury, Cam Smith, winner of The Players and The Open Championship last year, was in contention until midway through the final round. It’s certainly hotting up.
Since 2010, only Bubba Watson has won the green jacket more than once, so Masters maidens are very welcome to this year’s feast, though throughout the event’s history they will need to be almost extraordinary to counter the lack of course experience.
Best Bet – Xander Schauffele
The top of the market looks extremely strong, though I’d favour Scottie Scheffler over Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy given a stunning run of play that includes two wins in seven 2023 starts. He looks almost bombproof and but for a missed five-footer at Bay Hill and a lack of concentration when tired at the Match Play, could easily be going for a fourth consecutive win.
He can’t make a mistake at around 7/1 though and with the weather expected to be extremely influential, that is short enough.
We have to look at strong each-way payouts and that seems to limit us to just a handful. Of those, 29-year-old Xander strongly fits the bill.
The Nevada resident ranks in the top-10 of the OWGR, and will arrive at Augusta after a progressive run of form that started after his withdrawals from the opening Tournament of Champions with back pain.
Since then, Xander has gone seven from seven, with top-10s at the American Express and Pheonix, and fast-closing efforts when 13th at Torrey Pines and 19th at Sawgrass.
Last time out at the Match Play in Austin, the selection won all his group matches, beating Cam Davis 4&3, Aaron Wise 2&1 and Tom Hoge 1-up after birdie at the last hole. In the quarters, he led or tied with the in-form Rory McIlroy for 17 of the 18 holes, succumbing only to a 12-foot birdie putt by his opponent in a match that produced a better-ball 59.
Make of it what you will, but Masters winners Tiger Woods, Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and defending champ Scheffler have all won the WGC Match Play, so anything resembling a quality performance can only be a bonus.
Certainly his form this year has a better ‘feel’ than when missing the Masters cut a year ago, his first missed weekend in five starts and spoiling an Augusta record of second, 17th and third from 2019 to 2021. That said, it’s doubtful Xander will again leave himself a 50-foot putt and walk off for a rain break, as he did last season, something that seemed to put him off his game for too long. We should remember, too, that those two medal finishes were a one-shot runner-up to Tiger Woods after a final round 68, and a three shot defeat behind Hideki Matsuyama when just one hole (par-3 16th) cost him a treble bogey six and the end of any charge.
Winner of seven PGA Tour events that could have been eight bar an ironic play-off loss to Rory McIlroy when defending his WGC HSBC Champions crown in 2019, he notably has a tremendous record at nearby East Lake, home of the Tour Championship where he has figures of 6/3/1/2/7/1.
Xander is a major machine, landing nine top-10s and three further top-15 finishes in 22 starts, and whilst it was a toss-up between here and the U.S Open, he’s been a fancy for the green jacket for quite a while. He’s won each year since 2017 bar Covid year, so there is one coming, and it may as well be at Augusta. I’ve been on each of the last three years and there seems no reason to desert him yet.
Danger – Jordan Spieth
Danger – Sungjae Im
Danger – Corey Conners
Given the expected weather, it’s very hard to leave out Jordan Spieth, who has never been shy about his love of golf in difficult conditions.
In eight starts, the Texan has won once (in soft conditions), and finished second and third on four other occasions, including when dropping six shots in three holes to hand surprise winner Danny Willett the green jacket.
His positive stats have allied concerns surrounding the loss of form with the putter, showing well enough at Bay Hill, Sawgrass and Copperhead, but it’s the intelligent way he plots himself around the course that makes him the main danger this week.
A mere glance at Spieth’s best form shows a player very much at home in the wind, with the current world number 16 very much at his best at the likes of Pebble Beach, Deere Run and, of course, The Open, where in 2017 he overcame poor weather to win by three shots.
Since his win at the RBC Heritage last May, Spieth has racked up six top-10 and a further five top-20 finishes, including when having chances at the Pheonix, Arnold Palmer and Valspar.
Winner of three events in April throughout his career, the Masters has always looked to be ‘his’ tournament. He can prove that this week.
Sungjae Im is very simple to write about.
The 25-year-old Korean is put in around the same price as Will Zalatoris (price based on older majors form) and Viktor Hovland (just okay form here and a short game that is regressing from the very average) and that cannot be right.
Runner-up here in Covid year, he proved that to be nothing like a fluke when leading after the first round last year, although keeping on at just one pace to finish eighth.
Those two top-10 finishes from three starts back up an overall Georgia record that has him second, 12th and 15th at East Lake, whilst he has rarely ventured off the path of excellent tee-to-green, finding strong strokes against the field for his ball-striking in his last seven events.
Tour-tips three month tracker has the former rookie in the top-30 for ball-striking (18th) greens-in-regulation (24th) and scrambling (30th) whilst he ranks in the top five in par-5 performance, possibly the only chance of making a score this week.
In nine full-field events since the turn of the year, Sungjae missed the cut at the Sony Open, a venue he doesn’t get on well with, but has made eight cuts, including a fourth place at Torrey Pines, Scottsdale and Sawgrass.
If it becomes a grind, Sungjae is huge each-way value.
Corey Conners did nobody bar himself a favour when winning last week.
Almost certainly on the list for a good top-20 bet, his one -shot victory in Texas killed his win price by several points, yet only last year’s champ Scottie Scheffler has won the week previous to Augusta.
Still, I’d rather a player with good incoming form, as well as figures on the course, and the Canadian has those aplenty.
Form this season has been trending with just one missed-cut in eight outings spoiling a run towards that win last week.
In eighth place at halfway, the 31-year-old finished 18th at the opening Tournament of Champions, 12th at the Sony and, 21st at Bay Hill (third at halfway), before winning two of his three group games at the Match Play, losing only at the final hole to eventual runner-up Cameron Young.
Given the way Conners repeats form, it was no surprise to see him creep closer each round before eventually holding on last week, and put up yet another sterling performance for tee-to-green fans.
As at Waialae, Conners led the greens-in-regulation stats, and at both he racked up double-figures for his tee-to-green superiority, a huge factor around Augusta, where his relatively weak putting can be disguised.
Whilst he has been trending towards the victory, Conners also has progressive form here, with figures of 6/8/10/46. Should that continue, he’ll finish in fourth place, something more than possible given he is the typical horses-for-courses kind of guy.
This will go to one of the more fancied players, but I’ll be back tomorrow for the side bets.
Recommended Bets:
- Xander Schauffele – WIN
- Jordan Spieth – WIN
- Sungjae Im – WIN/Top-5
- Corey Conners – WIN/Top-5
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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Master
Apr 4, 2023 at 10:26 am
Brooks
Jason Daniels
Apr 4, 2023 at 1:55 pm
Be fascinating to see how the LIV players match up these days.