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Opinion & Analysis

2023 U.S. Open Betting Tips: Back this LIV pro for glory in the City of Angels

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Major number three already, and we are off to Los Angeles Country Club for what is supposed to be one of the world’s great courses.

This isn’t a travel guide, though, and you’ll find volumes written about location, what it means to the USGA to play here and yada yada.

For us, it’s ‘simple.’

7400+ yards, par-70, sloping fairways, thick rough and tough-to-hold greens.

Should it stay dry, bombers will be wary of running out of the short stuff into thick, Bermuda rough. For the shorter hitters, they will need to find outstanding accuracy with clubs of lesser trajectory. Hit the right part of the angled greens, or pay for it.

History dictates that an elite player wins the US Open, with previous top results being made of the odd interloper. Whatever the result, look for a golfer with all aspects of his game close to their peak. You don’t win a US Open by suddenly finding your A-game.

Respect to all at the top, and whilst he has six wins since the start of 2022, Scottie Scheffler still failed to convert at East Lake, Kapalua and Bay Hill. In the last couple of months, the world number one has failed to turn promising half-way leads into victories at either the Byron Nelson or PGA Championship. At single figures, I greedily need more.

Masters champ Jon Rahm gives the impression he can turn it on at any given time, and came off a withdrawal and poor Match Play to win his second career major. With that in mind, his return to form at Muirfield gives his supporters hope that he can win for the first time since overcoming Brooks Koepka in a bizarre final round at Augusta. he is preferred to Rory McIlroy, who again failed to justify very short odds, this time when going for a three-peat in Canada last week.

Granted, the Northern Irishman carried another bag of weights around Oakdale, but it wasn’t the first time we have seen him fail to kick on from a good position, and this won’t be the place to try and chase his first major in nine years.

For me, there are no doubts about Brooks Koepka, and any double-figures should be snapped up.

The 33-year-old is a major king, and this yardage and these conditions suit every aspect of his game.

Koepka has nine PGA Tour wins – five majors and four non – and all are important pointers this week.

Of the ‘rest’, Koepka won the 2015 Phoenix Open beating future Masters champ Hideki Matsuyama and past Augusta winner Bubba Watson, into second. The 2018 CJ CUp victory saw him beat 2019 US Open winner Gary Woodland, whilst he put 2012 US Open champ, Webb Simpson, in his place at St. Jude.

Finally, whilst Xander Schauffele has not yet won a major, he’s come damned close (more of that soon) and again boosted the ‘regular event’ form of BK, finishing a shot off him at TPC Scottsdale, a course with (perhaps spurious) links to LACC.

Koepka’s form in 2023 suggests he can repeat what he did when winning the 2019 PGA (7400-yard par-70 Bethpage). On that occasion, he had Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Deki and Xander behind, as he did when winning his third PGA Championship at Oak Hill just a month ago.

The headline selection has no official stats from the LIV Tour but at the two completed majors of 2023, he has shown he is still amongst the best of his generation.

For the PGA and the Masters, the selection ranked seventh and 16th off-the-tee, fifth and second for approaches and second and ninth for tee-to-green. Throw in a pair of putting numbers that show a 4-shot-plus gain with the flat stick and he should be closer to favoritism this week.

Even taking into account the one missed-cut, and a 55th when totally out of form, Koepka’s 10 tries at a 7400-7600-yard par-70 track sees him average 18th place, and I have no doubt that figure will be heavily reduced by the 72nd hole at LACC this week.

It’s very difficult to look past the top 12 or so for the outright winner here and, with an improving short game, Viktor Hovland was very tempting at 16/1.

Instead, at half-a-dozen points bigger, I’m rowing in with a player I feel must win a major at least once in his career.

29-year-old Xander Schauffele has done everything but win one of the coveted four, and has yet another chance to break that maiden.

A local man, who attended California State and lives in LA, Xander has one of the best major records in the field – all without getting that vital win that defines a golfer’s career.

Runner-up, third and 10th at Augusta in three of the last five years, he betters those figures at this tournament, racking up a sequence of 5/6/3/5/7/14, two of those coming at the lengthy Shinnecock Hills and Winged Foot, as well as a couple being in his home state.

Following a withdrawal with injury at the seasonal opener, Xander has made all 12 cuts this year, and the quarterfinal of the Match Play, losing to an inspired McIlroy after extra holes in a high-quality match.

Given the elevation changes of the Renaissance Course, Xander’s 2022 Scottish Open win may be significant, but it’s the consistency of his tee-to-green game that keeps him in contention at these difficult and high-scoring events.

Currently ranking third for overall performance over the last 12 weeks, and (apart from Bay Hill, his only flop) with a minimum gain from tee-to-green of 2.5 strokes this year, he has everything ready for another top finish.

Justin Rose had chances to do even better at Augusta, Oak Hill and last week in Canada, but the fact he went into Sunday’s back-nine with a chance bodes well for this tougher test.

The 2013 US Open winner has always had a practical outlook for this event. He recently told Breaking News that his win at Merrion was built on the thought, “it was a US Open so you build your game plan in a way to think, ‘How can I get round this course without making mistakes and shoot even par?’” That might do fine as a plan this week.

The 42-year-old has earned 12 top-10 finishes in majors since that victory, including at the ‘similar’ Shinnecock Hills, and when third at Pebble Beach, scene of his first victory for four years.

Taking a couple of events to resettle after the win, Rose has made his last seven cuts, including a top-six at The Players, 16th at Augusta (top-10 into Sunday), ninth at the PGA (top-five into the final round) and last weekend’s eighth place finish.

Rose averages around 20th for tee-to-green figures over the same period, a number that should see him thrive around a course that will not offer up the plentiful birdies sought by the more aggressive players. He can also repeat the payout provided at Oak Hill by being ‘top Englishman’ in a five-man field.

There are a handful for special bets, but two names stand out – Wyndham Clark and Gary Woodland.

29-year-old Clark has no major form to speak of. In fact, the figures are frightening, but there is cause to be hopeful of a top-20 finish from this improver.

Frequently recognized for his quality tee-to-green game, the Scottsdale resident has hidden form to go along with his maiden victory at Quail Hollow in May, an event that saw him thrash Schauffele by four shots, with Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and a host of fancied players well behind.

That particular event seems to throw up US Open names, with winners Lucas Glover, Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson and Matt Fitzpatrick, all finishing runners-up in Carolina. Take a peek at who was a silver medalist this year….

That first victory was always coming, with form often hidden by poor final rounds.

At St. Jude, Clark sat inside the top-10 before finishing 28th; in Canada he led till halfway before recording a seventh place finish, and at the Corales, the eventual sixth place was three places off the number after 54 holes.

The Wells Fargo champion has three outings at Houston, his only recorded efforts over a long par-70, and, again, his play is better than the numbers on screen.

He fell from sixth and seventh place through the first three rounds to finish 41st in 2021, whilst a year later Clark sat in the top three going into Sunday, when a 73 saw him drop to 16th.

Allow the one missed-cut of the year – at the PGA – and instead look at last week’s 12th place at Muirfield, especially as he sat in the top-five going into the final round.

Hitting the ball well, he ranks fifth in performance over 12 weeks, striking up good numbers for driving distance, greens, scrambling and putting. Whilst I couldn’t be on for the outright, he looks a fairly comfortable bet for a place on the front two pages.

2019 US Open champ Gary Woodland has started to climb the world rankings again after six top-10 finishes since the start of 2022, and is showing enough consistency to believe he can rack up the third top-20 of his US Open career.

Just four years ago, the 39-year-old led home a top-10 that included Koepka, Rahm, Rose and Schauffele, and whilst he hasn’t won since, there is plenty in last year’s top-10 at Brookline and Houston to be encouraged this will suit.

’23 has been kind to this powerful driver, with a top-10 at local Riviera and when going into Sunday at both Augusta and Quail Hollow.

The numbers make it clear – Woodland has an appalling short game, but that’s why he can be ignored at birdie-fests, and backed when his tee-to-green game will make inroads. Ranking 25th for driving distance and 30th for greens for recent weeks, I’ll take the chance that it does so around here.

Recommended Bets:

Outright

  • Brooks Koepka 
  • Xander Schauffele 
  • Justin Rose 

Specials

  • Justin Rose – Top English 
  • Wyndham Clark – Top-20 
  • Gary Woodland – Top-20 

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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