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Opinion & Analysis

2023 U.S. Open Betting Tips: Back this LIV pro for glory in the City of Angels

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Major number three already, and we are off to Los Angeles Country Club for what is supposed to be one of the world’s great courses.

This isn’t a travel guide, though, and you’ll find volumes written about location, what it means to the USGA to play here and yada yada.

For us, it’s ‘simple.’

7400+ yards, par-70, sloping fairways, thick rough and tough-to-hold greens.

Should it stay dry, bombers will be wary of running out of the short stuff into thick, Bermuda rough. For the shorter hitters, they will need to find outstanding accuracy with clubs of lesser trajectory. Hit the right part of the angled greens, or pay for it.

History dictates that an elite player wins the US Open, with previous top results being made of the odd interloper. Whatever the result, look for a golfer with all aspects of his game close to their peak. You don’t win a US Open by suddenly finding your A-game.

Respect to all at the top, and whilst he has six wins since the start of 2022, Scottie Scheffler still failed to convert at East Lake, Kapalua and Bay Hill. In the last couple of months, the world number one has failed to turn promising half-way leads into victories at either the Byron Nelson or PGA Championship. At single figures, I greedily need more.

Masters champ Jon Rahm gives the impression he can turn it on at any given time, and came off a withdrawal and poor Match Play to win his second career major. With that in mind, his return to form at Muirfield gives his supporters hope that he can win for the first time since overcoming Brooks Koepka in a bizarre final round at Augusta. he is preferred to Rory McIlroy, who again failed to justify very short odds, this time when going for a three-peat in Canada last week.

Granted, the Northern Irishman carried another bag of weights around Oakdale, but it wasn’t the first time we have seen him fail to kick on from a good position, and this won’t be the place to try and chase his first major in nine years.

For me, there are no doubts about Brooks Koepka, and any double-figures should be snapped up.

The 33-year-old is a major king, and this yardage and these conditions suit every aspect of his game.

Koepka has nine PGA Tour wins – five majors and four non – and all are important pointers this week.

Of the ‘rest’, Koepka won the 2015 Phoenix Open beating future Masters champ Hideki Matsuyama and past Augusta winner Bubba Watson, into second. The 2018 CJ CUp victory saw him beat 2019 US Open winner Gary Woodland, whilst he put 2012 US Open champ, Webb Simpson, in his place at St. Jude.

Finally, whilst Xander Schauffele has not yet won a major, he’s come damned close (more of that soon) and again boosted the ‘regular event’ form of BK, finishing a shot off him at TPC Scottsdale, a course with (perhaps spurious) links to LACC.

Koepka’s form in 2023 suggests he can repeat what he did when winning the 2019 PGA (7400-yard par-70 Bethpage). On that occasion, he had Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Deki and Xander behind, as he did when winning his third PGA Championship at Oak Hill just a month ago.

The headline selection has no official stats from the LIV Tour but at the two completed majors of 2023, he has shown he is still amongst the best of his generation.

For the PGA and the Masters, the selection ranked seventh and 16th off-the-tee, fifth and second for approaches and second and ninth for tee-to-green. Throw in a pair of putting numbers that show a 4-shot-plus gain with the flat stick and he should be closer to favoritism this week.

Even taking into account the one missed-cut, and a 55th when totally out of form, Koepka’s 10 tries at a 7400-7600-yard par-70 track sees him average 18th place, and I have no doubt that figure will be heavily reduced by the 72nd hole at LACC this week.

It’s very difficult to look past the top 12 or so for the outright winner here and, with an improving short game, Viktor Hovland was very tempting at 16/1.

Instead, at half-a-dozen points bigger, I’m rowing in with a player I feel must win a major at least once in his career.

29-year-old Xander Schauffele has done everything but win one of the coveted four, and has yet another chance to break that maiden.

A local man, who attended California State and lives in LA, Xander has one of the best major records in the field – all without getting that vital win that defines a golfer’s career.

Runner-up, third and 10th at Augusta in three of the last five years, he betters those figures at this tournament, racking up a sequence of 5/6/3/5/7/14, two of those coming at the lengthy Shinnecock Hills and Winged Foot, as well as a couple being in his home state.

Following a withdrawal with injury at the seasonal opener, Xander has made all 12 cuts this year, and the quarterfinal of the Match Play, losing to an inspired McIlroy after extra holes in a high-quality match.

Given the elevation changes of the Renaissance Course, Xander’s 2022 Scottish Open win may be significant, but it’s the consistency of his tee-to-green game that keeps him in contention at these difficult and high-scoring events.

Currently ranking third for overall performance over the last 12 weeks, and (apart from Bay Hill, his only flop) with a minimum gain from tee-to-green of 2.5 strokes this year, he has everything ready for another top finish.

Justin Rose had chances to do even better at Augusta, Oak Hill and last week in Canada, but the fact he went into Sunday’s back-nine with a chance bodes well for this tougher test.

The 2013 US Open winner has always had a practical outlook for this event. He recently told Breaking News that his win at Merrion was built on the thought, “it was a US Open so you build your game plan in a way to think, ‘How can I get round this course without making mistakes and shoot even par?’” That might do fine as a plan this week.

The 42-year-old has earned 12 top-10 finishes in majors since that victory, including at the ‘similar’ Shinnecock Hills, and when third at Pebble Beach, scene of his first victory for four years.

Taking a couple of events to resettle after the win, Rose has made his last seven cuts, including a top-six at The Players, 16th at Augusta (top-10 into Sunday), ninth at the PGA (top-five into the final round) and last weekend’s eighth place finish.

Rose averages around 20th for tee-to-green figures over the same period, a number that should see him thrive around a course that will not offer up the plentiful birdies sought by the more aggressive players. He can also repeat the payout provided at Oak Hill by being ‘top Englishman’ in a five-man field.

There are a handful for special bets, but two names stand out – Wyndham Clark and Gary Woodland.

29-year-old Clark has no major form to speak of. In fact, the figures are frightening, but there is cause to be hopeful of a top-20 finish from this improver.

Frequently recognized for his quality tee-to-green game, the Scottsdale resident has hidden form to go along with his maiden victory at Quail Hollow in May, an event that saw him thrash Schauffele by four shots, with Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and a host of fancied players well behind.

That particular event seems to throw up US Open names, with winners Lucas Glover, Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson and Matt Fitzpatrick, all finishing runners-up in Carolina. Take a peek at who was a silver medalist this year….

That first victory was always coming, with form often hidden by poor final rounds.

At St. Jude, Clark sat inside the top-10 before finishing 28th; in Canada he led till halfway before recording a seventh place finish, and at the Corales, the eventual sixth place was three places off the number after 54 holes.

The Wells Fargo champion has three outings at Houston, his only recorded efforts over a long par-70, and, again, his play is better than the numbers on screen.

He fell from sixth and seventh place through the first three rounds to finish 41st in 2021, whilst a year later Clark sat in the top three going into Sunday, when a 73 saw him drop to 16th.

Allow the one missed-cut of the year – at the PGA – and instead look at last week’s 12th place at Muirfield, especially as he sat in the top-five going into the final round.

Hitting the ball well, he ranks fifth in performance over 12 weeks, striking up good numbers for driving distance, greens, scrambling and putting. Whilst I couldn’t be on for the outright, he looks a fairly comfortable bet for a place on the front two pages.

2019 US Open champ Gary Woodland has started to climb the world rankings again after six top-10 finishes since the start of 2022, and is showing enough consistency to believe he can rack up the third top-20 of his US Open career.

Just four years ago, the 39-year-old led home a top-10 that included Koepka, Rahm, Rose and Schauffele, and whilst he hasn’t won since, there is plenty in last year’s top-10 at Brookline and Houston to be encouraged this will suit.

’23 has been kind to this powerful driver, with a top-10 at local Riviera and when going into Sunday at both Augusta and Quail Hollow.

The numbers make it clear – Woodland has an appalling short game, but that’s why he can be ignored at birdie-fests, and backed when his tee-to-green game will make inroads. Ranking 25th for driving distance and 30th for greens for recent weeks, I’ll take the chance that it does so around here.

Recommended Bets:

Outright

  • Brooks Koepka 
  • Xander Schauffele 
  • Justin Rose 

Specials

  • Justin Rose – Top English 
  • Wyndham Clark – Top-20 
  • Gary Woodland – Top-20 

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Opinion & Analysis

Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers

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PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.

In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.

Check out the full Q&A below.

Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?

Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.

I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.

Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?

Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.

Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.

Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?

Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.

In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.

Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?

Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.

Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?

Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.

Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.

Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?

Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.

The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.

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Club Junkie

A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast

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In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.

We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.

To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.

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Opinion & Analysis

From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50

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This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?

As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.

I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.

Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.

I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.

It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.

So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.

1. Think About What You Want

Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.

Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.

For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.

You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.

The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.

But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.

None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.

2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work

One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.

You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.

You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.

I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.

Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.

I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.

3. Get Custom Fit

If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.

If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.

Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.

It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.

Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.

I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.

So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.

Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.

Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.

I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.

4. Distance and Strategy Matter

There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.

I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.

Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being

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