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Opinion & Analysis

The best bets for the 2023 Scottish Open

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We should be in the middle of a trio of home Opens.

Although disappointing, it is perfectly understandable why organisers would move the Irish Open to September instead of staying in its regular position, two weeks prior to The Open.

They see the rescheduling as part of being able to attract a better quality field and, if reports are to be believed, they will certainly be hosting a fair number of the top-20 in the world.

It also takes place when yours truly believes The Open should be, a proper end-of-season trial around a links course. The move also puts punters in a quandary.

Last year’s Scottish Open champion Xander Schauffele has never played the Irish Open but won the Travelers at home before winning a top-class pro-am at Adare Manor.

Tommy Fleetwood’s record in Ireland was just about decent, but he used that experience to his advantage at the Renaissance Club, ultimately losing to Aaron Rai in a play-off in 2021, an effort that preceded two further top finishes.

Rai, himself, has a terrific record at Galgorm Castle and Mount Juliet, running-up to John Catlin in Covid year and posting a pair of top-12 finishes since.

Lucas Herbert, winner at Mount Juliet in 2021, and with two book-ending top-10s at the Irish, has a pair of fourth place finishes at Renaissance, whilst Bernd Wiesberger – winner of the first Scottish open held at the North Berwick course in 2019 – has two second places and a fourth from just four Irish Open outings.

There is undoubtedly a connection, and whilst we have to do without immediate Irish Open form, I’m in on anything that hints to quality and consistent efforts across the water.

As always, the weather will hugely affect the home Opens.

Austrian Wiesberger won his play-off after recording  22-under, whilst a year later Rai and bad weather specialist Tommy Fleetwood got very wet when fighting it out at half the score, 11-under.

We go again a year later when Min Woo Lee used his length to triumph in 18 under the card but, 12 months ago, the defending champ needed only to get to 7-under to win by a single shot.

There is plenty of wind and rain forecast for the week, so if it clears up, expect low scores on softened greens. Should it continue post-Wednesday, we might see Fleetwood again posting the joy he finds in getting soaked.

 

With Cam Smith banned from appearing (though very high on the list for next week’s big event) and Jon Rahm and Max Homa not taking part, that leaves seven of the world’s top-10 players here this week.

Top of the list, Scottie Scheffler, may not have won since March but has been confirmed as putting up some of the best long-term tee-to-green figures since the pomp years of Tiger Woods.

It’s a rum week when the 27-year-old does not rank in the top three from peg to green, something that has happened only once in his last 10 starts. Even then, he ranked fifth.

Having beaten Tyrrell Hatton at Bay Hill, and won in Texas, Pheonix and Sawgrass (again beating Hatton) I’ve got no issues with him in the wind. I just wonder if this might be seen as more of a warm-up for Hoylake, where his stunning approach play will be a positive against an unquestionable weakness (putting), a factor that might be less of an issue.

We have to go back to Ernie Els in 2003 to find the last repeat winner of the Scottish Open, so whilst Xander is tempting after another stellar year (10/18/10 through the majors) I have a feeling he will be another for whom this will be a warm-up for better.

Rory has done nothing in two outings here and won’t want poor conditions, but Patrick Cantlay does make some appeal at the price, giving the impression he is very much this year’s Schauffele.

The 31-year-old hasn’t had the best year in terms of public relations but continues to churn out repeat results at favoured tracks. After last year’s fourth place, he might soon be numbering the Renaissance as one of those.

Cantlay is managing to sneak in results despite sometimes being off with one element.

Surrounding a 14th at Augusta (could have been so much better but for the slow play issues), top-10 at the PGA and 14th at the US Open, the eight-time winner has landed yet another top-3 at Harbour Town, a fourth place alongside Schauffele when defending the Zurich pairs title, and his sixth top-15 in a row at River Highlands, recording his best ever event finish, in fourth place.

In between all those, a 30th at the Memorial may seem poor in comparison to his two course wins, but something went very wrong on day four, his poor display on the greens dropping him back from ninth, whilst 21st at Quail Hollow is very acceptable given his dislike of the course.

He’s now back on a track on which he was top-20 for tee-to-green and 11th for putting, so whilst he has never played the Irish Open, the fact he has been 12th at Carnoustie and eighth at St. Andrews suggests he cannot be ruled out in any varying Open conditions.

I’m completely torn between Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood and it’s only by the width of a feather that the former is preferred.

Whilst he may have once reached the lofty height of fifth in the world,  in my mind the 31-year-old Englishman is playing some of the most consistent golf of his life, and in higher-quality fields.

Two-time winner of the Alfred Dunhill Links, Hatton’s best finish in this event is a runner-up behind Alex Noren at Castle Stuart in 2016. Noren, incidentally, is another with a tremendous record at the same pro-am, the highlight being last year’s second place behind another links specialist Ryan Fox.

It’s not all old form though, and the selection comes here after three consecutive course top-25s  (14/18/24), a record that could have been better given he sat in eighth place after two rounds last year.

Whilst he is yet to win in 2023, the man who should be mic’d for every round (ever) was the closest challenger to the flying Scottie-man at Sawgrass, third at tough Quail Hollow, and again in bronze medal position in Canada.

That leaderboard at Oakdale has some added significance, with beaten play-off candidate Fleetwood and joint third-placed Rai boosting form for this week, and Royal Aberdeen winner Justin Rose in eighth place.

In 16 outings this year, Hatton has missed just one cut (in Texas) with top-10 finishes in Pheonix, at Bay Hill, and at Craig Ranch boosting his current world ranking of 15th.

He comes here currently ranked (PGA Tour) 10th off-the-tee, 17th in approach and 5th for putting, with his worst figures being for around the green, a stat that let him down around here last year when a slight loss (-0.5 strokes) cost him another place in the top 15.

I’ll take it on the chin if he’s beaten by a shot by Fleetwood, but wherever one finishes, expect the other. The coin flipped Hatton’s way.

It’s not hard to imagine Jordan Spieth being at his best for next week’s big one, and it was tempting to go with vastly improved Adrian Meronk, winner of last year’s Irish Open. However, The Pole appears a little shy of this level, and has done little in two previous outings here.

Instead, the slowly peaking Min Woo Lee might be ready to go well after leaving a rough patch of form behind.

After a good start to 2023 with a runner-up in Abu Dhabi, top-15 in Dubai and sixth place at The Players (second place after three rounds), the Australian lost his form and missed three cuts, including at Augusta, a course at which he’d been 14th on debut.

However, he bounced back at the PGA at Oak Hill, following up with three more cuts at Colonial (7th after round one, 25th after three), fifth at the US Open and ninth at Travelers.

The 24-year-old then returned to Europe for the British Masters at The Belfry with a spring in his step, commenting that he felt his upbringing on the DPWT had been vital for his progress on the PGA Tour. “So, it definitely helped with my career and America’s really tough,” he told the DPWT website. “The courses are tough and I always come back to how I played in Europe, and yeah, lots of confidence from playing out here and I think it’s starting to show a little bit in America.”

54th after round one last time, and 63rd at halfway, Lee found his form after the cut, scything through the field in difficult conditions to finish 15th.

This was enough to think he comes here ready to build on two solid course efforts. In eighth place after the first round on debut, he, of course, improved on that a year later, with a remarkable final round of 64 in 2021, despite a weather delay.

It’s hard to believe that Min Woo has been professional for just four years, but with victories in Victoria in his home Open (beating Ryan Fox) and around here, he arrives into a period that suits his best game.

With a short major career beginning to show improvement – this year’s 8th and 15th coming after a 21st at Cam Smith’s Open win – Min Woo needs serious consideration over the next two weeks. Hopefully, the hints become reality in a few days’ time.

Rickie Fowler broadcast his current claims before his win last time in Detroit and loves coming to Scotland. A win at Gullane and four further top-10 finishes give credence to his claims, but, sadly, the bookmakers have got him now.

Despite Brandon Stone winning at 400/1 and Min Woo well into triple figures in 2022, I can’t look too far down for the winner.

I’ll puff in the cheeks and stick with a player often backed when wind and rain are mentioned, even if we need to shut eyes at the stats board.

In a similar way to Min Woo, 2021 Irish Open champion Lucas Herbert becomes an auto-bet when the right conditions are forecast.

The Aussie is one of those players that can rarely be backed on a trend or a form line. Indeed, his play-off win in Dubai came after a tied-67th season opener, the Bermuda win after two missed-cuts, whilst his latest win in Japan, in April, is surrounded by mostly poor form.

We can judge only the win at Mount Juliet as forecast, coming after a pair of top-20 finishes on the PGA Tour, at the Memorial and, significantly, Travelers.

No coincidence that after his best effort for a couple of months, he is considered for the Scottish Open this week in lieu of the missing Irish equivalent.

Herbert’s two outings here in 2020 and 2021 resulted in almost +3 for approaches and two top-eight ranked efforts on the greens, similar to his two efforts at River Highlands, one of which which led to his win at Mount Juliet..

Herbert is a confidence player, bombing the ball around in a tremendous play-off for his first win, although he has had to make changes to the way he drives the ball in an effort to simply find fairways.

At the end of last year, the 27-year-old realised that his stock draw was simply not finding the short stuff enough to count, with his coach commenting:

“We know that when he drives it 300 in the air–which he does–if he can hit 60 percent of fairways he’s going to compete week in and week out.”

Whilst he may not have completely settled with a new fade, it will come, and the wager is in trust that manages to find enough greens to allow his excellent putting to thrive.

Recommended Bets:

  • Patrick Cantlay
  • Tyrrell Hatton
  • Min Woo Lee
  • Lucas Herbert

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Opinion & Analysis

Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers

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PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.

In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.

Check out the full Q&A below.

Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?

Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.

I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.

Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?

Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.

Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.

Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?

Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.

In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.

Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?

Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.

Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?

Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.

Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.

Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?

Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.

The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.

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Club Junkie

A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast

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In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.

We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.

To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.

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Opinion & Analysis

From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50

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This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?

As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.

I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.

Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.

I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.

It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.

So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.

1. Think About What You Want

Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.

Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.

For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.

You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.

The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.

But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.

None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.

2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work

One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.

You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.

You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.

I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.

Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.

I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.

3. Get Custom Fit

If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.

If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.

Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.

It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.

Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.

I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.

So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.

Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.

Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.

I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.

4. Distance and Strategy Matter

There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.

I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.

Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being

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