The PGA TOUR has reached the penultimate event of the 2024 season as we head to Castle Rock, Colorado, to play the BMW Championship.

The top 50 players left standing in the race for the FedEx Cup will tee it up this week at Castle Pines Golf Club looking to punch their ticket to East Lake.

This is the first time the BMW Championship will be played at Castle Pines Golf Club, and the event has had a different host in seven of the past eight editions of the tournament. Previously, Castle Pines played host to The International Tournament on the PGA Tour from 1986-2006. 

Castle Pines Golf Club is a par-72 measuring 8,054 yards but will play significantly shorter due to elevation. The course features Bentgrass greens and is a Jack Nicklaus design. 

Throughout this article, I’ll be referencing an interview that George Solich, who is the chairman and president of Castle Pines Golf Club as well as Keith Schneider, the General Manager, did with Colorado Avid Golfer, highlighting the key aspects of the golf course. 

The BMW Championship will be a no-cut event, with the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings moving onto the Tour Championship next week.

Past Winners at the BMW Championship

• 2023: Viktor Hovland (-17) Olympia Fields 
• 2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14) Wilmington
• 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) Caves Valley
• 2020: Jon Rahm (-4) Olympia Fields
• 2019: Justin Thomas (-25) Medinah
• 2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) Aronimink
• 2017: Marc Leishman (-23) Conway Farms

In this article, I’ll be using the Rabbit Hole by Betsperts Golf data engine to develop my custom model. If you want to build your own model or check out all of the detailed stats, you can sign up using promo code: MATTVIN for 25% off any subscription package (yearly is best value).

Key Stats For Castle Pines

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for Castle Pines Golf Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

When players at this time of year get hot, they tend to stay hot. SG: Approach is the best indicator of current form. Additionally, Jack Nicklaus designs tend to reward the best iron players. 

SG: App Over Past 24 Rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+1.78)
2. Xander Schauffele (+1.38) 
3. Tony Finau (+1.17)
4. Aaron Rai (+23.9)
5. Shane Lowry (+1.00)

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking will give us a strong indicator of who’s playing the best from tee to green. Players who are already long off the tee will have short irons into plenty of greens if they keep it in the fairway. 

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.36)
2. Xander Schauffele (+1.65)
3. Tommy Fleetwood (+1.35)
4. Shane Lowry (+1.31) 
5. Ludvig Aberg (+1.18)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

We’ve consistently seen the best Bentgrass putters play well on the surface time and time again. In two of the past three years, Patrick Cantlay feasted on his favorite green type and won on the back of +14.6 Strokes Gained: Putting at Caves Valley and 2.9 Strokes Gained: Putting at Wilmington. 

“The greens have always been bent grass; the fairways are a combination of bent and ryegrass, and the tees are bent, and the rough is Kentucky bluegrass,” golf course General Manager Keith Schneider said. “In fact, if anything, there’s been a lot of effort made on the approaches to go back to a very consistent experience.”

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Past 24 rounds:

1. Denny McCarthy (+1.12)
2. Ludvig Aberg (+1.01)
3. Mackenzie Hughes (+0.89)
4. Billy Horschel (+0.88)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.82)

Strokes Gained: High Elevation

Castle Pines will play at extremely high elevation. The sample size is small, but I’d at least like to factor in some previous statistics from courses with similarly high altitude.

Strokes Gained: High Elevation Past 30 rounds (minimum 8):

1. Patrick Cantlay (+2.35)
2. Rory McIlroy (+2.17)
3. Xander Schauffele (+2.16)
4. Justin Thomas (+2.01)
5. Sahith Theegala (+1.83)

Strokes Gained: Nicklaus Designs

Castle Pines Golf Club is a Jack Nicklaus design. Players who’ve thrived at Nickalus designs in the past will look to repeat the same success this week. 

Strokes Gained: Nicklaus Designs Over Past 30 Rounds:

1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.64)
2. Patrick Cantlay (+2.20)
3. Collin Morikawa (+2.17)
4. Shane Lowry (+1.78)
5. Viktor Hovland (+1.73) 

Birdie or Better Percentage

While speaking with Colorado Avid Golfer, General Manager of Castle Pines, Keith Schneider said he’d expect a -20 winner.

There’s always a lot of speculation as to what that will be and as good as these players are today, there’s a lot of good courses that 20-under seems to be kind of the mark anymore.”

“Weather will dictate that,” Schneider said. “If the golf course is soft, they’ll throw darts at it so that the score will be down. You know, if we were really concerned about score, we could have made a couple of par-fives, par-fours. Well, that’s not the history of the golf course. The history of the golf course is that it’s a par 72 and we wanted to honor that and respect that.”

Birdie or Better Percentage Over Past 24 Rounds:

1. Max Greyserman (27.5%) 
2. Sungjae Im (27.3%)
3. Eric Cole (25.7%)
4. Davis Thompson (25%)
5. Xander Schauffele (25%)

BMW Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed: SG: Approach (26%), SG: Ball Striking (23%), Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass (14%), Birdie or Better (14%), SG: High Elevation (8%) and SG: Nicklaus Designs (145).

1. Xander Schauffele
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Viktor Hovland
4. Tommy Fleetwood
5. Tony Finau
6. Ludvig Aberg
7. Russell Henley
8. Sungjae Im
9. Patrick Cantlay
10. Shane Lowry
11. Billy Horschel
12. Collin Morikawa
13. Aaron Rai
14. Sepp Straka
15. Max Greyserman

2024 BMW Championship Picks

Patrick Cantlay +2200 (FanDuel)

Last week, Patrick Cantlay shook off the rust after not playing since the Open Championship, finishing in a tie for 9th at the Fed Ex St. Jude Championship. He got off to a slow start with a 72 (+2) in round one but followed it with rounds of 67 (-3), 66 (-4) and 66 (-4) in the subsequent three rounds, climbing into a tied for 12th place finish. He was especially sharp on Sunday, ranking 6th on the day in Strokes Gained: Approach and 18th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.

Cantlay has won the BMW Championship in two of the last three seasons, and Castle Pines Golf Club looks to be another spectacular course fit for the 32-year-old. Cantlay is the best player in the field in his past 30 rounds in terms of Strokes Gained: Total in high elevation and also leads the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Jack Nicklaus designs. Cantlay has been incredible on Nicklaus designs throughout his career and has won at Muirfield Village twice.

It’s been a disappointing few seasons for Cantlay, as he has not won an event since the 2022 BMW Championship. However, he’s played some good golf in the second half of the season, finishing in the top-25 in seven of his past ten starts.

Throughout his career, Cantlay has done his best work on Bentgrass greens. Six of his seven individual wins on the PGA Tour have come on Bentgrass. At Caves Valley (2021 BMW Championship), he gained over 12 strokes putting to outduel Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff.

Over his past 36 rounds in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, Cantlay ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total. This is the time of year when he begins to play his best golf and how he named the moniker “Patty Ice”. I believe this is the week we see Cantlay’s two-year winless streak come to a screeching halt.

Tony Finau +2800 (BetMGM)

There are few players in the field who will have as much comfortability playing in the high altitude this week as Tony Finau. The elevation in Utah is the third highest on average of any U.S. state, and Tony grew up as the star of Utah Golf.

Finau has also played solid golf throughout the latter half of the season. The 34-year-old has finished in the top 12 in five of his past seven starts, including a tie for 3rd at the U.S. Open. He’s also hit the ball fantastically in that stretch, gaining strokes on approach in seven consecutive starts.

In his past 24 rounds, Finau ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach and 8th in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. With four par 5’s on the course playing in extreme altitude, Finau is the type of player who can make a ton of birdies at Castle Pines. In the field, he ranks 6th in his last 24 rounds in Birdie or Better Percentage. Historically, Finau has won in “birdie-fests”, which is what I believe this week will be. His last five wins have all come with scores between -16 and -24, with his most recent win coming at the 2023 Mexico Open (-24).

Finau has won a playoff event in the past (2021 Northern Trust) and has the advantage playing in elevation to win another this year for his first win of the season.

Billy Horschel +5000 (FanDuel)

In July, Billy Horschel found himself in the final group of the Open Championship at Royal Troon. Despite not winning, the veteran has been locked in ever since and used the best major performance of his career as a springboard to playing excellent golf ever since.

Horschel finished in a tie for 7th at the Wyndham Championship in his first start after The Open and followed it up with a tie for 10th at last week’s FedEx St. Jude. At TPC Southwind, Billy ranked 1oth for the week in Strokes Gained: Approach and 13th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.

Despite being known as a great putter on Bermudagrass, Horschel has actually putt much more efficiently on Bentgrass this season. Over the past 24 rounds, he ranks 2nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting on Bentgrass.

Horschel has had plenty of success in elevation. He won the 2014 BMW Championship at Cherry Hills in Colorado and ranks 13th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in high elevation. He also has been excellent at Jack Nicklaus designs. He won the Memorial Tournament in 2022 at Muirfield Village. He also put forth a great performance in the PGA Championship at Valhalla (Nicklaus Design) finishing 12th.

Billy has proven in the past he can beat the best players in the world when he finds himself in contention over the weekend.

Sahith Theegala +5500 (FanDuel)

Sahith Theegala has been a bit quiet of late, but that doesn’t change that he’s had a great season. The Pepperdine product has seven top 10 finishes on the year, including two top 6 finishes in his last four starts.

Theegala has been comfortable playing in high elevation and ranks 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in that department over his past 36 rounds. He’s also a fantastic putter on Bentgrass, where he ranks 12th in the field.

The early returns on Sahith show that he really excels when playing Jack Nicklaus designed courses. He ranks 15th in the field in the category and has a few strong finishes on Nicklaus designs this season including a T12 at both The Memorial (Muirfield Village) and the PGA Championship (Valhalla).

Despite the strong season, Theegala would be the first to tell you that he’d love a FedEx Cup playoff win to finish it off. I believe he can get involved and has the type of putter that can win him a tournament down the stretch on Sunday provided the driver cooperates.

Nick Dunlap +8000 (FanDuel)

Nick Dunlap is having one of the most impressive seasons by a 20-year-old in quite a while. He has two wins on the season at the American Express and the Barracuda Championship and put forth a gritty effort over the weekend at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship to punch his ticket to this week’s BMW Championship.

While it is certainly a big ask for Dunlap to win in this field, I believe he has a shot. His previous wins both came in “birdie-fests” and he should be able to tear Castle Pines apart with his driving distance and ability to exploit the four par-fives on the course.

Dunlap is no stranger to playing in high elevation. He won the U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills in Colorado, making him the second golfer in history to win both the U.S. Junior Amateur and U.S. Amateur championships. He also has shown that he has an affinity for Jack Nicklaus designs, winning at Tahoe Mountain Club’s Old Greenwood course in California.

Dunlap played with Scottie Scheffler in the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, beating him by three shots in the third round. There’s no doubt he will be nervous if he’s in contention at this week’s BMW Championship, but the kid has showed he’s not one to back down from a challenge.