Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

The 20 players who can win the Masters

Published

on

My annual Masters column shortlisting the players that can win the Masters has been successful since its inception in 2013. Since the field is smaller compared to other majors and it is the only major event that plays the same golf course each year, there are clear set metrics that have strong predictive outcomes for success at Augusta National Golf Club. Thus, the filtering process that narrows the list to 20-24 players lives on.

Last year was the second year in a row where the winner rather easily walked away with the green jacket. But the next four closest competitors (Aberg, Morikawa, Homa, and Fleetwood) were all players that I had filtered out. But, I do feel that the weather conditions may have played a role in those players finishing better than expected.

Over the past 25 years, Augusta National has greatly favored longer hitters. The best way for the shorter hitters to compete in the Masters is to get the right type of weather. It could be record low temperatures with strong winds, like in Zach Johnson’s 2007 victory, or it could be soft conditions from rain that allow shorter hitters to be able to hold those long approach shots, like in Mike Weir’s 2003 win.

The current trend of “critical holes,” where past leaders in the tournament have gained the most strokes against the field, is holes 7, 11, 13, and 17. But with the tee moved well back on 13 for the first time last year, any inclement weather may completely change the importance of that hole and give some advantage back to shorter hitters who are superior wedge players if virtually nobody can reach the green in two shots. Having said that, 11 is still proving to be the most critical hole as top players in the past have been gaining an average of 1.5 strokes per tournament on that hole alone.

As I have done for the past two editions, I’ll filter out the LIV players first. Since LIV Tour does not provide ShotLink or Trackman data, it’s more of a guessing game as to how certain LIV Tour golfers are playing.

Tyrrell Hatton
Dustin Johnson
Phil Mickelson
Joaquin Niemann
Charl Schwartzel
Cameron Smith
Bubba Watson

It feels odd leaving Mickelson and DJ out, but they haven’t played very well, and I don’t think the key parts of their game to succeed at Augusta are on point at this time. Niemann has made 4 out of 5 cuts at Augusta, but hasn’t really scared the top of the leaderboard. Recency bias matters in golf forecasting, and neither Cameron Smith nor Tyrrell Hatton have played all that well lately on the LIV Tour and in other tournaments around the world.

Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller, though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934, followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935:

Jose Luis Ballester(a)
Evan Beck (a)
Brian Campbell
Rafael Campos
Laurie Canter
Thomas Detry
Nico Echavarria
Max Greyserman
Justin Hastings (a)
Joe Highsmith
Rasmus Højgaard
Noah Kent (a)
Thriston Lawrence
Matt McCarty
Maverick McNealy
Taylor Pendrith
Aaron Rai
Davis Riley
Hiroshi Tai (a)
Davis Thompson
Kevin Yu

Out of all of the first-time attendees, the data likes Nico Echavarria and Kevin Yu to play the best at Augusta National.

I also filtered out old Masters champions I do not believe can get into contention anymore.

Angel Cabrera
Fred Couples
Zach Johnson
Bernhard Langer
Jose Maria Olazabal
Vijay Singh
Mike Weir

As I mentioned earlier, there is a recency bias involved with performance forecasting. Missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players who miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week.

Therefore, I filter out all players who missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.

Ludvig Aberg
Akshay Bhatia
Sam Burns
Matt Fitzpatrick
Max Homa
Tom Kim
Chris Kirk
Hideki Matsuyama
Adam Schenk

I will also filter out the players who have never made the cut at the Masters.

Wyndham Clark
Nick Dunlap
Austin Eckroat
Stephan Jaeger
Michael Kim

A Tradition Unlike Any Other…

Augusta National has traditionally favored longer hitters and even more so in the past 20 years of the event. Of course, there have been exceptions, as in 2007 when the short-hitting Zach Johnson ended up winning the event.

Critics of my filtering system point out Johnson’s victory as a case for short hitters being able to win at Augusta, but they neglect the fact that Johnson’s victory came in historically low temperatures in the 40s with wind gusts reaching 35 mph. That made the par-5s almost unreachable in two shots, and the course stressed wedge play and short game around the green, where Zach had a sizable advantage.

Historically on the PGA Tour, scores start to increase significantly once the wind speeds are going 12 mph or more. The forecast calls for a nice Thursday with winds blowing 9 mph SSW. Friday is the day of uncertainty with a forecast of potential morning rain and winds at 12 mph coming out of the West. Saturday is supposed to be a little cooler with 8 mph NNW winds. And then it is setup for a beautiful sunny Sunday with a high of 73 degrees and winds only blowing at 4 mph out of the Northwest. Mind you that the key par-5’s, 13 and 15 go west, so the wind is likely to be in the golfers’ face to some degree on those holes.

I still don’t see the weather being a big enough factor to help the shorter hitters, so I will filter out the players that don’t have enough distance off the tee.

Lucas Glover
Brian Harman
Russell Henley
Tom Hoge
Denny McCarthy
Collin Morikawa
JT Poston
Justin Rose
Sepp Straka
Nick Taylor
Danny Willett

Morikawa is the most difficult player to leave off this list since Augusta National is such an approach shot player’s course and Morikawa is arguably the best iron player in the world. His lack of distance is the only area of the game that he is missing to be a perfect fit for the course. And he has picked up some distance in the past couple of years, but still just narrowly misses out on the distance filter. It should also be noted that Sepp Straka has been having a strong season with his irons, particularly on his long approach shots.

The next filter will be players who hit the ball too low. This filter has been controversial in the past, but has continually proven to be valid. Last year I had 5 players in this filter with two of them missing the cut and the best finish was a t-22 by Joaquin Niemann. This year we have another 5 players to filter out:

Daniel Berger
Sungjae Im
Robert MacIntyre
Jhonattan Vegas
Will Zalatoris

Every year, I filter out the poor performers on approach shots from 175-225 yards, as Augusta National puts a lot of stress on those shots. Last year, I filtered out nine players, and they had the most success out of any group of players filtered out in previous Masters, with both Max Homa and Tommy Fleetwood finishing T3 — but most of the group still underperformed.

Here are the golfers I’m filtering out due to poor play from 175-225 yards:

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Cam Davis
Jason Day
Harris English
Tommy Fleetwood
Billy Horschel
Patton Kizzire
Adam Scott
Jordan Spieth
Sahith Theegala
Cameron Young

That leaves the 20 players who can win the Masters…

Byeong Hun An (150/1)
Keegan Bradley (100/1)
Patrick Cantlay (40/1)
Corey Conners (65/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (14/1)
Tony Finau (80/1)
Sergio Garcia (80/1)
Nicolai Højgaard (200/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)
Brooks Koepka (25/1)
Min Woo Lee (40/1)
Shane Lowry (40/1)
Rory McIlroy (6.5/1)
Matthieu Pavon (400/1)
Jon Rahm (16/1)
Patrick Reed (80/1)
Xander Schauffele (20/1)
Scottie Scheffler (5/1)
JJ Spaun (175/1)
Justin Thomas (25/1)

My personal top-10 picks

Corey Conners (65/1)
Bryson DeChambeau (14/1)
Viktor Hovland (35/1)`
Min Woo Lee (40/1)
Shane Lowry (40/1)
Rory McIlroy (6.5/1)
Jon Rahm (16/1)
Xander Schauffele (20/1)
Scottie Scheffler (5/1)
Justin Thomas (25/1)

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

14 Comments

14 Comments

  1. Pingback: The 24 players who can win the Masters – GolfWRX

  2. Filippo

    Apr 10, 2025 at 10:04 am

    I hope Rory, will win Koepka.

  3. Andrew J

    Apr 10, 2025 at 7:03 am

    Rory is my favorite especially if he could putt. And Rory could with this which is the solution to rid of slow play on greens. EGOS – Expert Greenreading Operating System offered in Amazon books with large pics & font. Only $27 each which is a smoking deal for a lifetime skill.
    https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DJT2YLL9 Great book for those with an analytical mind.

  4. Masters Bettor

    Apr 9, 2025 at 11:55 am

    So you filter out all LIV players to start and end up with 20 that can win that include Serio, Rahm, Bryson, Brooks, and Pat Reed? You’re not making any sense with your paragraph of LIV and elimination of those golfers with that as written.

    • Richard

      Apr 9, 2025 at 1:55 pm

      Agree ….

      • livat

        Apr 9, 2025 at 4:32 pm

        Agree. The LIV analysis and reasoning is poor. Niemann is probably the LIV player with the best chance.

    • DukeOfChinoHills

      Apr 11, 2025 at 12:41 am

      His list of 20 players are the statistically probable players who could win.

      The second list of personal top-10 picks are his “emotional” picks.

      • Masters Bettor

        Apr 11, 2025 at 1:40 am

        Yes but he derives that top 20 list (which is hilarious in it’s own right considering that there’s literally only like 10 guys max here who can win every year and half are the betting favs) while making literally zero sense with how he starts the article off about disqualifying all LIV players yet ending up with a top 20 list that includes a bunch of them.

  5. Ross

    Apr 9, 2025 at 11:07 am

    I love your analysis. Great job. I think the will come from your top 10.

  6. Felice Mastronzo

    Apr 9, 2025 at 8:21 am

    Another year another list of excuses about filtered out players that performed well instead.
    Golf is not predictable at this level, too much variables.
    Final top 10 list is just the list of normal favorites.

    • DontBMad

      Apr 9, 2025 at 11:57 am

      He’s been right 11/11 times – predictable enough…

      • Felice Mastronzo

        Apr 10, 2025 at 4:27 am

        Picking up 20 from a field of around 70 and predict one of them to be the winner is not so hard.
        But the analysis model has many flaws.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Opinion & Analysis

Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers

Published

on

PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.

In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.

Check out the full Q&A below.

Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?

Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.

I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.

Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?

Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.

Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.

Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?

Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.

In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.

Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?

Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.

Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?

Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.

Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.

Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?

Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.

The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.

Continue Reading

Club Junkie

A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast

Published

on

In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.

We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.

To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50

Published

on

This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?

As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.

I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.

Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.

I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.

It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.

So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.

1. Think About What You Want

Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.

Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.

For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.

You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.

The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.

But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.

None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.

2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work

One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.

You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.

You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.

I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.

Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.

I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.

3. Get Custom Fit

If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.

If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.

Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.

It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.

Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.

I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.

So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.

Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.

Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.

I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.

4. Distance and Strategy Matter

There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.

I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.

Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being

Continue Reading

Announcement

Our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use have been updated as of January 29th, 2026. Please review the updated policies here Privacy Policy | Terms of Use. By continuing to use our site after January 29th, 2026, you agree to the changes.

WITB

Facebook

Trending