Affinity for a course suggests that Rory McIlroy should be cast in the role of favorite this week at Charlotte. Unfortunately for the 2013 PGA champion, 2010 Wells Fargo Championship winner and 2012 runner-up, his current form repudiates any such assertion. McIlroy’s last contest was The Masters, where a wretched, third-round 79 condemned him to a 25th-place tie. The defending champion (Rickie Fowler) has yet to play out of a similar malaise (t-38 finish in Augusta,) placing 32nd last week in New Orleans.

Looking beyond the two media darlings offers an unlikely yet unavoidable third consideration. D.A. Points, the other non-winner (at McIlroy’s side) in last year’s playoff, is a winner this year (Shell Houston Open) on the PGA Tour and is listed in the top 30 for both FedEx Cup points and official money. Points is quite unpredictable, having missed the cut in seven of 13 Tour appearances in 2013, with one other finish (beyond the victory) in the top 35: his runner-up last week in New Orleans. In other words, he is an all-or-nothing pick. In four previous appearances at Quail Hollow, Points missed each 36-hole cut three times. That he led the field in successful scrambling (getting up and down for par 85 percent of the time) might have been the key to his near-miss.

Another cast for a victor might reel in former WFC winner Lucas Glover. Although his form has been inconsistent in 2013, he might have found the needed balance last week in New Orleans, where he placed fourth. Phil Mickelson would normally make the “A List” of contestants, as his record at Quail Hollow, resplendent with top-10 finishes, lacks only a title. The state of his game, though, advocates for caution. Other than a win in Phoenix and a tie for third at Doral, Lefty has no other top-10 finishes this season.

Less-likely trophy-grabbers but certainly under consideration for a variety of reasons are Bill Haas and Webb Simpson (regional comfort and familiarity), Ricky Barnes and Kyle Stanley (talented golfers awaking from a slumber) and the winner last week in the Crescent City, Billy Horschel. While it’s quite rare for players to win back-to-back events, Horschel has shown that he can play well on any course. His first appearance in Charlotte could produce fireworks.

Missing this year is Tiger Woods, the 2007 champion. Woods would certainly have featured among the pre-tournament favorites. He is the only current professional for whom a top-five finish at a major is considered a disappointment. Despite the hullabaloo that surrounded his penalty at Augusta, Woods endures as favorite in any event for which he registers.

The Course

Six par 4s listed beyond 450 yards in length, including four beyond 475. Par 3s that extend to 250 yards and par 5 holes that fall in the 550-600 yard category. Quail Hollow might be dismissed as long-hitter’s paradise, save for the fact that players like David Toms, Joey Sindelar and Jim Furyk have hoisted the winner’s chalice on Sunday. The Charlotte club will host its first major championship, the 2017 PGA, affirming that the course is laden with strategic decisions and reputable architecture. A win at the Wells Fargo Championship elevates the player’s stature nearly to that of a major champion. It is one of an elite handful of Tour events that transcends its “regular-class” definition.

Despite the closing stretch of water-logged holes (paid due respect later), the dominant natural feature of Quail Hollow is its mature trees. Far from the open, links or heath style of course that is currently the darling of world golf, Quail Hollow remains true to its parkland heritage. Pines, oaks, maple, holly, dogwood and spruce frame fairways and enclose corridors from elevated tees to sunken greens (and vice-versa.)

There are few courses without a signature stretch these days. If it didn’t begin with the “Amen Corner” at Augusta, that triad certainly churned the waters with its notoriety. The Quail Hollow club is no exception to this trend and its “Green Mile” begins on the 16th tee. After the statistically-simple, par 5 No. 15 (rated easiest hole in the 2012 playing,) the 4-3-4 closing triumvirate demands middle-iron selections, if not more, on all approach shots. No. 16 doglegs to the right, around an immense bunker tucked on the inside corner of the fairway. From there, the hole flows in serpentine fashion to a large, rugged putting surface. Safe arrival in regulation is no guarantee of par, as the undulations, knobs and rumples of the green make it quite challenging to negotiate.

The penultimate hole is a one-shot affair, nearly 220 yards across an inlet of the lake first seen on No. 14. The green exposes more than half of its circumference to the water, while leaving no margin to the timid who play dryly to the right. If the winds awaken on Sunday, as they have for past celebrations, the hole transforms into a survival mission. Successful reconciliation of Nos. 16 and 17 might leave the player a bit unaware of the hazards that await on the final stretch of the “Mile.” A narrow stream runs the length of the hole on the left, precisely the direction in which players err to avoid the fairway bunker up the right perimeter. Like most George Cobb greens, No. 18 offers a healthy host of hole locations, given its gargantuan size. The need to pound a driver up a narrow, well-guarded fairway with the tournament on the line is a sought-after skill. To follow it up with an accurate approach of no small distance and a solid putt or two is the mark of a select player.

Viewing

Tickets for the 2013 playing of the Wells Fargo Championship are sold out. The event will be broadcast on the Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday from 3 to 6 p.m., and again on Saturday and Sunday from 1 to 2:30 p.m.. CBS will take over coverage on both weekend days, from 3 to 6 p.m.

Verdict

After 10 playings of the tournament and four playoffs, extra holes are somewhat likely. The ability to protect a lead down the closing sequence of holes, even in the best players, is suspect and unlikely. Seven third-round leaders gave up their advantage on Sunday, losing the tournament to final-day climbers. None was more dramatic that Rory McIlroy in 2010. The Ulsterman signed for a tournament-record 62 (10 under par) to scorch past a host of golfers and earn a four-stroke victory. Odds don’t favor the third-round leader, but it’s the predicting which follower will play his best on Sunday that proves difficult.