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Opinion & Analysis

Five long shots who can win the British Open

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The Open Championship is played on a style of course with a style of golf that the players and fans don’t often get to see.

It gives golf fans in North America a chance to watch things that we just aren’t that familiar with: sweaters in July, winds that blows flagsticks sideways, 3 irons from 150 yards and all the guys named Bjorn you can shake a stick at.

But the last few years especially, The Open Championship has provided some of most intriguing story lines in golf history. First, it was Greg Norman turning back the clocks and playing in the final group at Royal Birkdale in 2008. He eventually finished in a tie for third, six shots behind Padraig Harrington, who walked away with his second consecutive Claret Jug.

In 2009, Tom Watson outdid Norman performance — he almost won a major at the age of 59 at Turnberry (darn you, Stewart Cink).

Then, as if to almost make up for those near-amazing stories, The Open gave us consecutive feel-good winners: first the emotional triumph of Darren Clarke in 2011, which came out of nowhere. The next year, golf fans were treated to the re-emergence of Ernie Els, who won his first major championship in 10 years at Royal Lytham & St Annes Golf Club.

It’s something the tournament has always found a way to do, so I probably shouldn’t be surprised. How about Ben Curtis and Todd Hamilton winning consecutive Opens a decade ago? How about Paul Lawrie coming from 10 shots back in the final round after the leader had a Van De Velde-ian struggle on the final hole (wait, that WAS Van De Velde!).

I guess when you put golfers on a stage they are unfamiliar with, the unexpected can happen, and therefore we should expect the unexpected. And who better to pick a few potential random winners than someone who (shameless self promotion coming in 3-2-1) picked Justin Rose as the golfer without a major championship who was most likely to break through at Merion?

With that said, here are the long shots that I believe can win The Open this year at Muirfield:

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano

gonzalo

Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano isn’t a household name in the U.S., but golf fans are beginning to take notice. If you don’t recognize his name, it’s probably because it appears on leaderboards in a shortened version —  “Fdez Castano.”

Fernandez-Castano has been on a lot of leaderboards lately, especially in big tournaments. His best results of 2013 so far? The U.S. Open, The Volvo Match Play Championship, the Accenture Match Play Championship, the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters, the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship and the Masters. He finished in top-20 at all of them.

Fernandez-Castano has a a great resume in Europe, where he has six wins. At 32, he is in the traditional “golfing prime.” And it just seems right that someone other than Sergio Garcia will be the first Spaniard since Seve to win The Open.

Click here to see the full list of Open Championship odds.

Rickie Fowler

Rickie-Fowler-makes-a-charge-at-British-Open-TF7PQM6-x-large

Rickie is currently ranked 30th in the Official World Golf Rankings, so he may not reall qualify as “long shot.” But a golfer ranked 30th in the world is never really a “favorite,” especially Fowler, who has been dogged by questions about his ability to close out tournaments several times in his young career.

Fowler admittedly likes poor weather, and played college golf in windy Oklahoma (he went to Oklahoma State). In 2011, he played one of the best Open rounds in recent memory when he shot a 2-under 68 on Saturday at Royal St. George’s in some of the worst weather imaginable. He also went 3-1 at the 2007 Walker Cup played at Royal County Down, another place known to have some pretty stern winds.

He’s having a solid season so far with four top 10’s and third-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he fell short of Tiger Woods. He’s also coming off a top 10 at his most recent major, the U.S. Open. If you are willing to call Fowler a long shot, then he’s at the top of the list. He has the skills and toughness to win The Open, and I can’t slip the feeling that he’s due for something big.

Justin Leonard

Justin Leonard

If the past few years have taught us anything, it’s that an older golfer who has won The Open will find a way to contend again. And when that golfer is a guy who isn’t a long driver of the ball, hasn’t won in five years and hasn’t made the cut in The Open since 2010, that’s all the more reason to pick him in my book.

Justin Leonard in his heyday was a great wind player, and he contended in majors regularly with 11 top 10’s and six top 5’s. If fate is going to sprinkle magic pixie dust on someone to allow them to turn back the clock and compete, it should be Leonard because he has been there before and is playing well in 2013 — he’s missed only three cuts in 19 events.

Also, unlike other events, Leonard’s lack of distance might not really hurt if the course conditions are firm and fast as predicted. This is the long shot of long shots, but every year someone like Leonard seems to be hanging around the lead on Sunday.

David Lynn

David Lynn

Trivia question for you: Who finished second when Rory Mcilroy drubbed of the field at the 2012 PGA Championship? The answer, as you should have surmised by now, is David Lynn. Do you know what that means? If Rory McIlroy had switched to Nike clubs last July, Lynn would already be a major champion.

Lynn was the only player other than McIlroy to shoot consecutive rounds in the 60’s at Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course on the weekend. He followed that up by joining the PGA Tour in 2013, and playing solid golf both stateside and back home on the European Tour.

His results have been mixed with some poor play of late, but he almost won the Wells Fargo Championship in May (he lost in a playoff to Derek Ernst). Lynn has two top 10’s and more than $1 million in earnings so far in 2013. While he has only one career win, the European Tour’s KLM Open in 2004, he’s proved in the last year that he has the game to compete with the world’s best wherever he tees it up.

Alexander Noren

alexander-noren_1476176c

For those of you not familiar with Alexander Noren, he’s a 30-year-old member of the European Tour, but he played college golf in the U.S. at the same windy school as Fowler.

Noren had success at this event last year, when he had his best finish in a major (he tied for ninth). That’s not exactly groundbreaking stuff, of course, but Noren is coming into The Open on a hot streak. He has finished in the top 5 in his last two European Tour events, is one of the best putters on the European Tour, and is also a fairly good all-around player, hitting a lot of greens despite some problems with the driver this season.

Noren is currently fourth on the European Tour in stroke average, so this guy can play. He also has shown he can get it done, winning two events in the same season back in 2011. He strikes me as a guy who is a real force when he is hitting fairways. Will the weekend at Muirfield be magic for him?

Click here to see the full list of Open Championship odds.

Jeff Singer was born and still resides in Montreal, Canada. Though it is a passion for him today, he wasn't a golfer until fairly recently in life. In his younger years Jeff played collegiate basketball and football and grew up hoping to play the latter professionally. Upon joining the workforce, Jeff picked up golf and currently plays at a private course in the Montreal area while working in marketing. He has been a member of GolfWRX since 2008

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. AV

    Jul 16, 2013 at 12:07 pm

    I’m a huge Alex Noren fan, but his last two tourneys have been MC x2. He looked very ragged at the Castle Stuart, so it’d be a surprise if he contended here.

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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