With three wins in his last six starts, Zach Johnson is playing the best golf of his career and proving even courses that don’t look to favor him can be destroyed with a methodical, bogey-free approach.

While Johnson’s win at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions at Kapalua Resort in Lahaina, Hawaii, was impressive, it also came in a no-cut event. Now the PGA Tour’s 2014 calendar year is officially off and running with this week’s Sony Open on Honolulu a quick island flight to the northwest. (Quick rabbit trail, is there any better consolation prize than missing a cut in Hawaii? “Oh, I don’t have to walk around anymore getting sweaty and can just go hit the beach/surf/hike/sit under a waterfall/drink fruity drinks? Awesome.”)

Without the safety net of guaranteed weekend fantasy points, your strategy should revolve around consistency. No one wins a segment or season in one week. What you don’t want to do is bury yourself with stupid picks. If you take a risk, it shouldn’t be so risky that it borders on incomprehensible. Think Colt Knost is going to score a top-10? I don’t care how sure you are, that kind of thinking will hurt you at the end of the year.

With that being said, Waialae Country Club yields a lot of birdies. If you’re looking for someone off the beaten trail, look for someone who consistently can post low rounds. The cut was 5-over last year and the ones who missed the weekend didn’t roll the ball in the hole on scoring chances.

One bad round can be the difference. Let’s take a look at the volcanic layers of fantasy commitment. (Try not to step on hot lava.) It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

Who will shoot in the 70’s? If you can answer that question you’ll have a pretty good idea who will make the weekend because sub-70 rounds will be the norm. Sometimes risk involves something completely unknown. Last year, Dustin Johnson withdrew in the second round and it took much of the first part of the year to get his body back where it needed to be for the Tour’s long grind. If you picked Johnson, you got burned bad. That’s just bad luck. But sometimes you get lucky as would have happened if you picked Russell Henley, who not only one in his first Tour start but posted 63-63-67-63 to shoot a course-record 24-under par 256. May the odds be ever in your favor.

Russell Henley

What, a defending champion? This is crazy, right? Unlike Jordan Spieth, Henley slowed considerably as a rookie once he got to venues that required a more complete game. Plus, he also didn’t look good at the Hyundai TOC, finishing 27th of 30 golfers and shooting in the 70’s each day. I’m not sure he turns it around in one week.

Tim Clark

The South African put together rounds of 64-66-66-63 last year en route to a 21-under runner-up finish, which would have been a course record if not for Henley. That’s got to sting. Clark is not a long hitter, but he is fairway accurate. He’s still using a long putter, and may have longer putts on which to use it. This will be his first start of the year, but he’s going to make my team in some leagues.

Jeff Overton

The University of Indiana star has had a quiet if yet unsubstantiated career. He finished eighth last year with a 15-under total (65-67-68-65), and he’s been playing well in his five starts already this season.

Chris Kirk

Last year, Kirk shot 62 in the second round on his way to a 16-under tournament (68-62-68-66) and a share of fifth place. He’s already won a tournament this year and played well in spurts last week. I believe he’s going to have a really strong year and have no hesitation about using him for the second week in a row.

Brendon de Jonge

De Jonge has yet to pick up his first Tour victory, but he’s an extremely capable golfer and has shown a propensity for streaky birdie play. That means if the Zimbabwean starts well, he usually finishes well. If you can catch him hot, ride him for two or three weeks straight. Last year, he ran off four sub-70 rounds and backed it up at the Humana Challenge by doing the same. His track record in Hawaii is solid if unspectacular and worth a shot at rostering, but maybe not starting.

REWARD

There is a clear-cut top four entering this tournament. The order of those four is very subjective, so be ever mindful of blowing through two of their starts to open the season. Accordingly, I planned ahead last week and only two will be in my lineup this week, and aside from a few bonus points I missed out on, my positioning is strong entering this week.

Zach Johnson

He was a Risk guy last week (nearly a Reward) because you weren’t sure how he’d handle driving a ball through the wind in comparison to longer hitters that Kapalua favored. Turned out to be a moot point with fairway accuracy and spectacular touch around and on the green. He’s hot and in my lineup this week with 10 starts available. Last year’s MC shouldn’t scare you, nor should his middling performance the year prior with the way his game has moved to an elite level.

Jordan Spieth

Rolled with the youngster last week and he’s proving he’ll be a force all year long, falling just a stroke back of ZJ in his quest for a second Tour win. He didn’t play here last year, but that should be no matter for as strong a player as him. I’m running him out there a second time to strike while the iron is hot.

Matt Kuchar

He may be the most consistent low-scorer on Tour, always seeming to hover around 66. He finished T5 last year with a 16-under total score (66-63-70-65) and had a T5 in 2011 as well (12-under). He’s a lock for points and is my pick to win.

Adam Scott

The Aussie was in contention at the Hyundai TOC and continues to show why he’s arguably the best player in the world at the moment. Scott only plays this tournament when he also plays the front end of the Hawaiian double, which means he hasn’t entered since 2011 when he missed the cut. But he also shot 13-under in 2009 when he finished T2. In some games, I will save a start from him to think about the big picture.

Charles Howell III

Howell is off to a great start this year with four top-10 finishes in six events played and has already made himself nearly $700K. Not too shabby for two months of winter golf. Now he takes on an event that has been among his best tournament venues on Tour. Last year, he finished T3 at 17-under and the year before T2 at 11-under. In 2010, he was T5. In 2009, solo fourth. That’s impressive and a sure bet to get points through the weekend. Winning will be tough, however, with the aforementioned upper tier.

RUIN

With the beginning of a new season comes a learning curve when it comes to making picks. It may take a few tournaments to identify what type of a player someone is this year, especially new ones to the Tour. Even “proven” players go through stretches where their game isn’t ready to compete every week. Zach Johnson missed the cut here last year, but by season’s end until now he’s automatic.

Names you have to Google

Seriously, if you need a search engine to identify who they are, it’s not a wise fantasy choice. Henley was an All-American at Georgia. There are solid Web.com Tour winners out there, but names like Jared Sawada, Tyrone Van Aswegen (pictured above) or Hideto Tanihara should not make their way onto your team.

Guan Tianlang

You’ve heard of Tianlang. He’s the 14-year old who played last year’s Masters, the youngest player to do so. He may blossom into a good pro, but for now he’s still an amateur on a sponsor’s exemption hitting approach shots with longer irons than everybody else.

John Daly

In some ways, I actually believe Daly is at the Sony to miss the cut and go enjoy an excursion trip. He got unlucky last year and made the weekend on the number (4-over) only to shoot 79 on Saturday. He’s a catchy name because of wins early in his career, but now his flamboyance is reserved for clothing choices and he gets around on sponsor’s exemptions. Hardly fantasy material.

Paul Goydos

At 49-years old, Goydos best years are behind him. He only played in two tournaments last year with health problems and missed the cut both times. He’s missed the cut in 2 of 3 starts this year and now takes on a Sony tournament that has not been kind in years past, having MC’d in 2011 and 2012. Strongly avoid.

Guys named Troy

Troy Merritt (pictured above) and Troy Matteson have not looked good here through the years and have had a slew of MC’s to take back to the mainland with their suntans. Matteson has missed 2 of 4 cuts this year and missed 14 of 24 cuts last year. Those are gambling numbers.

Merritt has missed the cut in both events entered this year and spent the last two years on the Web.com Tour. He missed the cut at the Sony in 2011 by shooting 71-71.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the tournament or if you have any fantasy lineup inquiries. Good luck!

This week’s picks

Yahoo

A: M. Kuchar (S), C. Howell III

B: Z. Johnson (S), J. Spieth (S), C. Kirk, B. de Jonge

C: T. Clark (S), J. Overton

(Last week: 197 points; Winter segment: 197 points)

PGATour.com

M. Kuchar, A. Scott, J. Spieth, C. Howell III

(Last week: 620 points)

Golf Channel

Group 1: M. Kuchar

Group 2: C. Howell III

Group 3: J. Overton

Group 4: S. Levin

(Last week: $836,000)