One of the more unique playing formats to hit the PGA Tour takes place this week as 156 professionals and paired amateurs will touch down in southern California for the three-course, 54-hole cut tournament at the Humana Challenge in partnership with the Clinton Foundation.

Because of the pro-am rotation on courses Palmer Private at PGA West, Nicklaus Private and La Quinta Country Club, it presents a dilemma when picking fantasy golfers. And since the cut last year was 10-under, in order to reap the reward of final round points, you will need golfers that can go low.

Last year, Brian Gay won a three-man playoff over David Lingmerth and Charles Howell III, each reaching 25-under. Let’s breakdown who can or can’t navigate the first three days and make it to the final round at Palmer Private. It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

You will want scorers this week and it’s not a week to be shy about wasting starts as the tournament sets up really well for about 10 golfers barring surprises. Again, I’m looking this week at guys who can shoot 63 in one of the first three rounds and get low. Conditions will be perfect for scoring all week in La Quinta.

Keegan Bradley

The risk involved is he’s making his first start this calendar year after netting $300k in two starts in October (10th, T11), but that’s about it. He’s coming off a strong season last year that saw him reach the Tour Championship and make the Presidents Cup, and he’s getting due for a win with his last coming at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational in August 2012. He last played this tournament in his rookie year of 2011 when he shot 23-under and tied for seventh.

Gary Woodland

Swing changes can take a while to manifest. One of the longest drivers on Tour, Woodland had just one win and a host of bad tournaments on his resume until the middle of last year. And then the swing changes he had gone through began to solidify in his tournament play. It culminated with a win at the Reno-Tahoe open and jumpstarted a run to the Tour Championship. Along the way he finished T2 at The Barclays. Now he’s out to prove he belongs near the top and already has a second-place finish this year and a round of 11-under at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions (T13). He missed the cut last year (swing changes), but shot 27-under in 2011 to nab second place.

Nicolas Colsaerts

The verdict is still out for the pro from Belgium who aspires to play more on the PGA Tour than the European Tour. Making the European Ryder Cup team in 2012 signified he could play, but his 2013 season failed to live up to the hype. This will be his first start of the new wrap-around schedule and his scoring average was fairly high last year. I’d take a wait-and-see approach to gage how his offseason went.

Robert Garrigus

At 36-years old, Garrigus won’t turn many heads unless he’s using the infamous “child’s putter” he used two years ago. But if you want a guy who can post a couple low rounds, he’s more than capable. He’s had two solid rounds this season already, granted they were in October, and last year he shot 20-under (T16). The year before, he shot 61 in the third round (making up for a first round 73) and tied for second at 22-under par. Previous to that he’s had a strong history at this event, even when it was known as the Bob Hope Classic.

Rickie Fowler

You could make the argument that Fowler is not a risk. But people are enamored by his orange and the idea that he’ll one day live up to his lofty potential. But so far, he’s not and I’m not using him until he can show consistency or maturity (or the British Open comes around, since that seems to be his best event). He also hasn’t played a tournament since early November, and he hasn’t exactly killed it in those first two starts either, shooting just one round in the 60’s in eight rounds of golf. He has the capability to go low in one round, but I wouldn’t wager on him to finish in the top 20.

REWARD

There are five golfers to be had this week that everyone will want on their roster. The thing is, we’re getting to the point early in the season where you could start burning through three or four starts before we’ve even hit February. And for one of these golfers, his hot streak suggests a strong season in a weak category for Yahoo gamers. Plan accordingly when using the chalk.

Zach Johnson

No player has changed his perception more in the last year than Johnson. He’s on fire and with his win at the Hyundai TOC has claimed elite status and garnered talk of making the Hall of Fame upon retirement for his now 11 wins and counting. Ranked No. 6 in the Official World Golf Rankings, Johnson is again a front runner this week. His meticulous approach and methodical treading around a course should serve him well with the venue rotation. He’s shot 19-under the last two years here.

Harris English

Strategy is important when factoring in a long fantasy season. And looking down the list of Yahoo group C golfers out there, Harris’ strong finish to last year, including his first Tour win at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, and superb start this year, complete with a win at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba, a joint win with Matt Kuchar at the non-sanctioned Franklin Templeton Shootout and a T4 at last week’s Sony Open suggests big things for the former Georgia All-American. But beware the urge to use him so often early. This could be a good week to use a risky pick if you’ve already used him a few times. He’s played decent (T19, 2012; T65, 2013) here in his only two appearances.

Brandt Snedeker

With a solid Hyundai TOC under his belt two weeks ago, this is my pick to win this week. A notoriously good putter, Snedeker can get the birdies flowing. He shot 19-under last year without going lower than 67, of which he’s completely capable. In 2012, he opened with a 64 and finished T8. He should be ready to unleash a run like he did to start last season when for five weeks he looked to be the best golfer in the world.

Webb Simpson

Leading the FedEx Cup points race in a very, very early season, Simpson has piled on four top-10 finishes in four starts, which included a win at the Shriners Open. He finished T3 at the Hyundai TOC and can post low scores on back-to-back days to open a big lead. His 2013 Humana didn’t go as planned, but from 2009-11 put up low numbers at the Bob Hope Classic.

Bill Haas

The thing about Haas, the 2011 FedEx Cup champion, is he’ll just come out of nowhere and win a tournament when you least expect it. That’s kind of how I feel this week. He doesn’t tend to shoot particularly low on and given day and he’s more of a grinder with a game suited for tough courses. His reputation at Humana is about the same grab bag of mixed results. Last year, missed cut. The year before, made cut, middling finish. The year prior to that one, 27-under par (over five days) and a second-place finish after losing in a playoff. And back in 2010, he won the whole thing at 30-under par (over five days). So do we see the guy who demolished the course for four straight years starting in 2009 or the one who will hover a few strokes under par?

RUIN

With any week of fantasy selections, there are names you just don’t go near. In fact, I’m sometimes baffled by the amount of people who will just throw caution and better judgment to the wind in search of being the guy who can say “See! I told you [insert obscure golfer] would win!” To me, your first object should be to win your season, then a segment, and if you win weeks along the way, it will usually be because you calculated your selections thoughtfully instead of trying to be Mr. Sleeper Pick.

Aaron Baddeley

If you want to hitch your wagon to a guy who missed 14 of 24 cuts last year, including 10 in a row, be my guest. Baddeley has the talent as proven by a win at the Northern Trust Open in 2011, but he’s got a mental block going on right now that may take some time to unkink.

Mike Weir

Would you believe Weir has already made $110k on Tour this year? That’s nearly better than his entire total from last year when he missed 13 cuts in 22 events played. One of those MC’s came at the Humana. The year prior, he missed all but one cut. The former Masters champion is playing better, but there are much better picks out there.

Jhonattan Vegas

In three starts this season, Vegas has actually posted several decent rounds in the 60’s, but this is also coming on the heels of a 2013 year when he suffered injury and missed most of the year (following three MC’s) and played the Web.com Tour for the month of September when he returned. He didn’t fair so well there either. Whether the 2011 Bob Hope Classic champion can ever return to his low-scoring ways remains to be seen, but this is not the week to guess.

Chesson Hadley

Last year’s Web.com Tour champion rode that success into the beginning of the new PGA Tour wrap-around schedule, grabbing a T5 finish at the Shriners Open and netting himself a nice payday to his rookie season. But since it’s been a run of three straight MC’s including last week’s Sony Open.

Ken Duke

He’s a favorite among Tour players and fans alike, but his game can be streaky. So far this year he has made every cut, but he’s not going to score you many points. He also MC’d last year at the Humana, shooting just one good round as the tournament made its rotation from course to course. Hard to feel safe with some guys and changing layouts. He’s one.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the tournament, discuss the Abu Dhabi HSBC Gof Championship or if you have any fantasy lineup inquiries. Good luck!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

A: B. Snedeker (S), G. Woodland

B: Z. Johnson (S), B. Haas (S), W. Simpson, M. Laird

C: H. English (S), N. Colsaerts

(Last week: 200 points; Winter segment: 397 points; Rank: 13,929)

PGATour.com

B. Haas, B. Snedeker, K. Bradley, Z. Johnson

(Last week: 192 points; Season: 1,029; Rank: 6,427)

Golf Channel

Group 1: B. Snedeker

Group 2: G. Woodland

Group 3: J. Overton

Group 4: H. Swafford

(Last week: $463,680; Season: $836,000; Mulligan: $436,680; Rank: 12,876)

Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship

Group 1: H. Stenson

Group 2: K. Aphibarnrat

Group 3: P. Harrington

Group 4: R. Karlsson