Still working off that WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship hangover? No worries, mate. Jason Day probably is too after securing only his second victory on the PGA Tour.

And Victor Dubuisson? If that doesn’t prove the unpredictability that exists in match play, in addition to all four No. 1 seeds being bounced in Round 2, I’m not sure what does. With that epic 23-hole display of rock-and-cacti par saves behind us, the PGA Tour shifts back into normal tournament mode and begins its Florida swing.

Up first, the Honda Classic housed at PGA National Golf Club in Palm Beach Gardens. This is when everyone begins to jump on board and prepare for a six-week run to the Masters.

As such, Tiger Woods, Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson are back [insert sarcastic golf clap here]. There’s a strong field on display this week, but this tournament hasn’t typically been won by the chalk. Last year, Michael Thompson picked up his first Tour win, and through the years it’s been a hodgepodge of mixed talent coming out on top. Don’t be afraid to throw caution to the Atlantic wind and run with some stealthier choices as we break down the field in this week’s edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

I’m not shying away from using one or two of the guys listed below this week. Strong course history, solid form of late for some to me equals a top-20 finish. With Justin Rose’s withdrawal midday Tuesday, it opened up a spot in Yahoo Group B and I penciled in one immediately with no hesitation. I’m looking for guys with nine or 10 starts left in many cases this week as there is a lot of time left in the fantasy season. And if you hold a lead in your league as I do, now’s not the time to get overly cautious.

Will MacKenzie

With six top-20s to start this season, MacKenzie heads to the Honda Classic in solid form, but he hasn’t played this tournament since 2010, as he’s earned his way back to the PGA Tour from the Web.com Tour. In the times that he has played PGA National, he’s done well, earning a T12 in ’10, T5 in ’09 and T22 in ’07. He seems to mix in a couple rounds of 67. If you can figure out where to avoid the big number, you could scratch out some good points.

Fredrik Jacobson 

Unlike MacKenzie, Jacobson does not enter in good form. He’s missed four cuts this year, including his last two which followed the heels of a T76 at the Human Challenge and a withdrawal from the Farmers Insurance Open after an opening round of 81. But the Swede, who is known for his excellent putting, has also put together three low tournaments this year when his game has clicked. And he loves PGA National, where he has finished T25 (’13), T16 (’12), T29 (’11), T6 (’10) and T5 (’09) over the years. He’s a bit of a gamble, but could pay big dividends for his frequency on the front page of the leaderboard here.

Camilo Villegas

The Colombian is familiar with Florida golf courses, having played his college golf at the University of Florida. And in 2010, Villegas won the Honda Classic with rounds of 66-66-67-68. He hasn’t won since and has missed the last three Honda cuts. But he also missed the cut the year before he won, which followed losing in a playoff in ’07 to Mark Wilson and a T24 effort in ’08. Clearly, he can put it together for one week and this may be the week to push the chips all in and hope for the best on the reveal.

Geoff Ogilvy

The Aussie has been of middling success this season, which was the case last year when he entered the Honda on a string of four straight MC’s. All he did was put up 68-66-70-69 to finish solo second. This is all we know about Ogilvy on PGA National since hasn’t played the Honda since ’06, when it was played at Country Club at Mirasol. Oh, that year he also finished solo second. In the years before, he ended T6 (’05), T13 (’04) and T14 (’03). So the question is does something suit his game in this tournament, however the course is set up? Based on his low FedEx Cup standing (149th), there will be opportunities to use him in some lower-tiered groupings. Good risk for the reward there.

Robert Allenby

Continuing my trend off the beaten trail, Allenby isn’t likely to make many Yahoo league picks, but in some other games, a guy ranked 106 in the FedEx standings with a couple top-20s (even at his age) could be helpful with experience navigating PGA National. He has some missed cuts here, but he’s also finished T5 (’09), T4 (’08) and T5 (’07). In all three years, he got off to a hot start the first two days and faded back a little at the end. Could be a good sleeper to open with, especially if you’re trying to make up ground on a competitor.

REWARD

The Reward picks this week are also a little light on the chalk. I love Rory McIlroy right now and he’ll probably make quite a few of my teams this week. He was my pick to win Match Play, and though he faltered, so did everyone else. His game is still really good right now and he won the Honda in 2012. I expect he’ll contend, though I also can’t ignore the other four times he’s played and didn’t do well. So noting that, here’s five who I really love this week and have starts to burn. Please note, Justin Rose would have made this list, but withdrew today.

Keegan Bradley

I expected a deep run for him in Match Play and he got bounced quickly by Jonas Blixt. No matter, Bradley has six top-20s this year and heads back to a golf course where finished T4 last year. He’s also finished T12 (’12), but mainly he just keeps feeling more and more due for a win. He doesn’t like losing, so I expect he trekked from Arizona to Florida a bit pissed off and ready to push his name back on his competition’s brains.

Sergio Garcia (Author’s Note: Added as a result of Justin Rose’s withdrawal)

As Garcia continues to mature, his game displays more and more evidence of turning the corner. His putting will keep him in contention, turn bogeys into pars and pars into birdies. His accuracy off the tee has always been a strong point. He has two wins worldwide since December and has finished T13 (’09) in the past at PGA National. Garcia’s game is much more refined since then and there’s no pressure on him. Perfect time to sneak in and grab a win.

Graeme McDowell

McDowell had the unfortunate and unexpected luck of running into red-hot Dubuisson in Match Play or he’d have been a strong pick to challenge for the title, given he’d already won the Volvo Match Play Championship on the European Tour this season. That now makes four top-10s in five starts on the PGA Tour this year, and his upward trend coincides perfectly with a trip to the Honda. He has finished T9 the last two years here, has a T6 in ’11 and a T31 in his debut year of 2010, where he opened with 68-67 before dropping back on the weekend with rounds of 71-76. I don’t know if he’s my pick to win, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

Charl Schwartzel

Match Play didn’t turn out so well with a second round boot by veteran Jim Furyk, but previous to that, Schwartzel opened his year with fifth-place result at the Northern Trust Open and scored in the 60s each day. Last year at the Honda, the South African ended T9, the year before T5 and in his Masters-winning year of 2011 finished T14. He’s a good bet to put up three solid rounds in the 60s; if he gets a fourth, you could be looking at the winner.

Lee Westwood

I always have hesitation about Westwood. He’s just one of those guys I don’t trust a lot and I do seem to miss on his good weeks and hit on his bad. I hope to break the jinx this week, and course history at least suggests this is the week to use him in the early part of the year. Last year, he shot 66-68 to open and ended T9. The year before he was solo fourth, buoyed by a final round 63. He’s also finished T29 (’11) and T9 (’10) in his time at PGA National. Nothing too scary, fingers crossed . . .

RUIN

Your usual suspects of “run away, run far, far away” are still in the field. I’m looking at you Mike Weir and Tommy Gainey. But I doubt you’ll even sniff on those guys. But in such a strong field, inevitably you’ll have a name who looks promising but there are factors to weigh, sometimes outside the norms of course history, to factor in. How many starts do I have left or will I need to make it through is a big one. Don’t waste one when you don’t need to. Unless you’re the guy in second behind me. In that case, use up all your chalk now and I’ll see you at the finish line. Here’s “five” to avoid.

Guys prepping for the Masters

I’m talking directly about Woods, Scott and Mickelson here. When your focus isn’t on winning the current tournament but rather making sure your game is ready for Augusta, the likelihood of being at the top of the leaderboard is slim. Make no mistake, this is not your typical ruin. I have zero problem plugging any of these guys in, but I don’t view this as a week where you need to use them. There are plenty of other golfers in solid form who want to win now. Even when Tiger finished second in 2012, he needed a final-round 62 to get there. That means for the first three days, his fantasy points were equal to or worse than most others. You probably didn’t play him that final day based on form. Tiger probably wouldn’t even play this tournament if he weren’t so geographically pressured into playing since he lives 20 minutes away. Scott has actually MC’d here before (’11), and Mickelson has never played here before. I’ve got other guys who I’m ready to roll with and I’ll save our major champions for bigger starts down the road.

Louis Oosthuizen

Oosty entered Match Play in bad form, and though he made it to the quarterfinals, his balky back continued to give him problems. Anytime a trainer is treating you on the ground on a tee box mid-round, it’s pause for concern. A withdrawal wouldn’t be surprising and is alarming when hypothesizing fantasy points. Factor in that he has missed the cut here the last three years and it’s a huge steer clear sign in my path.

Matt Every

Every is coming off a great tournament at the Northern Trust Open, where he finished T6 and strung together rounds of 69-69-69-67. He’s only missed one cut this year and has two other top-10s to his credit, but the Honda Classic hasn’t been kind to the University of Florida alum. He missed the cut last year following a second-round 74 and MC’d in ’12. His debut performance of T26 was strong but hurt severely by a final-round 77. He still has a lot of work to do to get that first PGA Tour victory.

Stephen Gallacher

Gallacher captured golf’s attention by winning the Dubai Desert Classic and his third European Tour title, and in the process defeated several big names such as Tiger Woods. But there’s not much PGA Tour expertise to speak of for the Scot. Many prognosticated a second-round upset of Justin Rose in Match Play, but Gallacher didn’t even get out of his first round contest with Ernie Els. Now he’s taking on a course of which he knows nothing about other than what is gained in practice rounds. Against a deep field. What are you hoping for out of him? A top 20? Higher? There’s a little too much guessing going on, especially when you have so much to choose from. I’m more inclined to pick Rickie Fowler over a 39-year-old with only a modicum of recent success.

Jason Kokrak 

I like the third-year pro’s game and he’s starting to show glimpses of will likely be a career-defining tournament. What I don’t like is a propensity to shoot one bad round which blows up his tournament. He’s made on appearance at the Honda Classic last year and missed the cut with back-to-back 72’s. This season, by far his strongest, he’ll shove a 73 or 74 somewhere into the mix. At the Northern Trust Open, he opened with a 69 and followed that up with a 77 to miss the cut. Five top-20s this year is nice, but I want to squeeze a top-10 out of another pick this week.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the Honda Classic, Victor Dubuisson’s classic French facial hair or toss around any fantasy lineup questions. Good luck!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: L. Westwood (S), L. Donald (S)

Group B: R. McIlroy (S), K. Bradley (S), G. Ogilvy, Z. Johnson

Group C: C. Schwartzel (S), G. McDowell

(Last week: 136 points; Winter segment: 1,224; Rank: 2,224 – 97th percentile)

PGATour.com

G. McDowell, C. Schwartzel, L. Westwood, K. Bradley

(Last week: 52 points; Season: 2,432; Rank: 4,912)

Golf Channel

Group 1: R. McIlroy

Group 2: G. McDowell

Group 3: G. Ogilvy

Group 4: C. Villegas

(Last week: $540,000; Season: $3,738,754; Mulligan $28,666; Rank: 15,585)