You know and I know that it won’t truly begin until Sunday’s back nine. And yet… we want to believe that something that happened on Friday just might be the lynchpin in the whole mechanism.

Bubba Watson took a three-stroke lead over John Senden on day two at the 2014 Masters, thanks to a sublime, mid-round transition. His tranquil front nine exploded in roman candles with a five-birdie run on holes Nos. 12 through 16, allowing the 2012 champion to seize the lead. A final-hole bogey brought him back to the field, but his tidy 68 brought him some china as the midway leader.

On Thursday, Watson opened with a three-under 69 and proclaimed “It was really solid. You know, my whole goal? I’m not trying to look at leaderboards. I don’t want to give my secret, but I’m trying to just hit greens.” It’s the simple stuff, right? Remember when John Daly won the PGA Championship from east of nowhere in 1991? It was his caddie, the late Jeff  “Squeaky” Medlin who revealed that “Kill, John. Kill.” was the only bit of advice he offered. If Bubba keeps it simple for two more rounds, watch out.

Australian John Senden made some noise of his own on Augusta National’s inward half. Birdies on Nos. 11, 14 and 15 elevated him from 1-under to a much-more-proximate 4-under, just three strokes behind the 2012 Masters champion. Senden has two PGA Tour wins to his credit, the 2006 John Deere Classic and the 2014 Valspar Championship. His record in Georgia is less than stellar, as his three missed cuts are only balanced off by a T-35 finish in 2013. So far off the radar screen was Senden that he was not one of the forty players interviewed on Thursday. And here we are, halfway through the first major of 2014 and John Senden figures prominently. After beginning Round 2 with bogeys on two of the first four holes, the Aussie played the remaining 14 holes in 6 birdies and 8 pars for a tidy 68.

Marc Leishman electrified the crowd early with birdies on his first three holes. Then came a power outage, with bogeys on Nos. 4, 5 and 7. Things continued to sour for the Aussie as he bled more strokes away on the back nine, finishing at 5-over to miss the cut by one slim stroke. In contrast, Louis Oosthuizen gave strokes back on holes Nos. 4 and 7 but never lost his resolve. A birdie on No. 8 and an eagle on No. 13 brought him to the top at 4-under. On the dangerous 15^th, Oosthuizen gave three strokes back with a two-ball rinse and an unpalatable snowman 8. One more bogey on No. 18 dropped the 2010 British Open champion from his once-lofty perch to even par after two rounds.

Thomas Bjorn and Jonas Blixt, from the traditional golfing countries of Denmark and Sweden (respectively), find themselves in a tie for third place at 3-under. Bjorn has had much success across the hills of Augusta National, but has never found the recipe to complete the main course. Is it possible that, at age 43, he has reached a place in life where his emotions and his game reach equilibrium? Bjorn has placed in the top four in five major championship; 2014 might herald his arrival, as 2011 did for Darren Clarke at the British Open.

Jonas Blixt, who will turn 30 later this month, heralded his potential last Augusta at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. His fourth-place finish at the PGA Championship augured the realization that Sweden might have two contenders (Henrik Stenson being the other) for golf’s major championships. Blixt reached 4-under by the third hole on Friday, then gave back three strokes by the No. 11. With characteristic stoicism, he reached down deep and made two birdies on the way in to match Bjorn through 36 holes.

The names who missed the cut are legion: In addition to the pre-tournament favorite firm of Johnson & Johnson (2007 champion Zach and Dustin), former champions Phil Mickelson, Tom Watson, Angel Cabrera and Trevor Immelman, along with 2013 PGA Champion Jason Dufner, will spend the weekend searching their swings and their souls for what went wrong. Did we forget Sergio Garcia, Graeme McDowell, Keegan Bradley, Ernie Els and Webb Simpson? Those pre-tournament favorites are also at the airport, a stroke or few too high to survive the midway pink slip.

Once again, amateurs fared poorly at Bobby Jones’ event. Of the six who received invitations, only Oliver Goss of Australia survived to play the final two rounds. The U.S. Amateur runner-up improved from an opening 76 to a 71 to survive by two strokes. As a result, he is guaranteed the Silver Cup that is annually awarded to the low amateur. Despite a valiant finish that included a birdie on the par-five 15th, U.S. Amateur champion Matthew Fitzpatrick was cut by the slimmest of margins at 5-over: one stroke.

Tied for third with Bjorn and Blixt are defending champion Adam Scott and wunderkind Jordan Spieth. Scott signed for a card of even par on Thursday, while Spieth went around in 70 strokes to match the 2013 recipient of the Green Jacket. Behind them are the ageless Fred Couples, the resilient Jim Furyk and the journeyman champion, Jimmy Walker. Fifty-one players will play on the weekend, with one solitary figure draped in a deep, leafy emerald on Sunday evening.

Care to venture a guess? Neither do I.