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Opinion & Analysis

The stats behind Snedeker’s switch to Butch Harmon

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The most recent high-profile teacher switch in golf has come from Brandt Snedeker, who moved from long-time coach Todd Anderson to Butch Harmon. Here is a look at Snedeker’s performance over the past few seasons.

Table 1

As we can see, Snedeker is on pace to have his worst season since 2009 with only two top 10’s in the 2013-2014 PGA Tour season. In this article, I’ll take a look at Snedeker’s 2012 and 2013 seasons since they were his best seasons on Tour and compare those seasons to his play this year.

A player of Snedeker’s caliber has to be frustrated in his inability to pull off a victory at a major championship as well, so I will also focus on what he has to do in order to win his first major.

First, let’s examine the scoring data over the past three years.

Table 2

The most important metric in the table above is the Total Adjusted Scoring Average. It has the strongest correlation to earnings on the Money List. Currently, Snedeker is ranked 72nd on the Money List but is ranked 113th in Total Adjusted Scoring Average.

The reason for the discrepancy is that Snedeker has played in large purse events due to his success and victories in previous years. If he continues to perform at this rate, he might not be able to play in such large purse events and his ranking on the Money List will start to match his Total Adjusted Scoring Average ranking.

Here is the list of the other metrics, in order, of strongest correlation to success on Tour.

  1. Adjusted Par-4 Scoring Average
  2. Bogey Rate
  3. Adjusted Par-5 Scoring Average
  4. Birdie Rate
  5. Adjusted Par-3 Scoring Average

While Snedeker’s performance in these metrics has dropped noticeably this year, I feel there are some other telling metrics about Snedeker’s game.

We have to understand that Snedeker is not a long ball hitter. He currently ranks 151st in club head speed (109.8 mph average). He was about 0.5 mph faster in 2012 and 2013, but that is not enough of a difference to explain his regression.

Despite being a short hitter off the tee, Snedeker has a high birdie rate and plays the par-5’s very well. Even this year his Birdie Rate is better than his Bogey Rate and he has performed best on the par-5’s. This usually does not occur with shorter hitters because the par-5’s are too long for them to make a lot of birdies. Typically, shorter hitters who are successful on Tour do a great job of avoiding bogeys. With Snedeker’s high birdie rate and quality play on the par-5’s, this tells me when he is playing well that he is likely a very good iron player from 150-to-200 yards and a good putter. And he is likely very good with his irons from 100-to-150 yards in order to play the par-5’s well.

Here are Snedeker’s rankings in the key ball striking metrics the past 3 years:

Table 3

Snedeker’s great seasons still feature average-to-slightly-below-average driving. He struggled badly from the Red Zone in 2012. His Red Zone play has been an issue for him in his career and in 2013 he finally started to get it down and that is why he had the best season of his career.

Snedeker will need to get his longer approach shots from roughly 150-to-225 yards back in order to reach his old form, but in order to take his game to that next level, he will need to improve his driving and figure out his Red Zone play for good.

I decided to delve a bit further into Snedeker’s driving and I noticed an interesting change in his ball flight when looking at his radar metrics:

Table 4

The Max Height stat ranks the golfers on the PGA Tour with the highest ball flight (No. 1) to the lowest ball flights (No. 190+). And we can see a couple of things going on here with Snedeker’s ball flight:
  1. It is progressively getting lower.
  2. He went from a slight right miss bias to a heavy left miss bias.

I think it is obvious that Snedeker did not like his ball flight and his miss to the left and that was part of the reason for seeking out new instruction.

Recently, Snedeker also switched from his trusty Odyssey White Hot XG putter to a Bridgestone True Balance TD0-02 with a steel shaft. Was his putting and short game play giving him problems?

Table 5

While there is a regression in his putting and Short Game, it is very slight and he is still excellent around and on the putting green.

Therefore, I expect that for Snedeker to regain his old form he will have to improve his mid-length approach shots (125-to-175 yards) and figure out what is causing him to hit the ball lower and miss left. From there, he will need to figure out his long approach shots (175-to-225 yards) and his driving if he plans on taking the next step of contending in major championships.

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Pingback: Predicting the Biggest Surprises on the PGA Tour in 2015 | Sports News

  2. Dan the Man

    Jul 30, 2014 at 11:39 am

    no need to panic…the dude is having an off year. Hasn’t he struggled with some health issues, too? His confidence will get him thru it. Butch…go easy on him.

  3. ABgolfer2

    Jul 30, 2014 at 9:21 am

    He needs to lower his Sunday choke factor.

  4. tom stickney

    Jul 29, 2014 at 5:36 pm

    Todd’s a great instructor as we all know in the business; sometimes you just need to hear it a different way. Hopefully Butch will be able to get him back on track with a few “new” thoughts.

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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