Opinion & Analysis
Three scenarios that get Tiger Woods into the FedEx Cup Playoffs
In 2013, Tiger Woods entered the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational leading the FedEx Cup standings. Fifty-two weeks later, he’s 215th!
There are only three events left–and just two for Tiger–before The Playoffs are set and Woods needs to jump 90 spots in that span to qualify.
He currently owns 45 FedEx Cup points, with position No. 125 possessing 403 points. The final Top-125 cutoff will probably come in around 450 points, meaning Woods needs 405 points in the next two events to qualify.
Woods missed the Playoffs in 2011. Here’s the scenarios and odds of avoiding that fate:
Just Win, Baby
If Woods wins the Bridgestone, he receives 550 points. And it’s 600 for the PGA Championship. Either way, he is no doubt in the Playoffs.
A dream scenario for sure, but highly chimerical when looking at Woods in 2014. There’s little tape to go off of in 2014, as the 38-year-old has put in just 20 full rounds of work.
Despite the limited play, we can see that the golf is largely poor. Yes, injury hindered him early on, but in his two starts since returning from back surgery, Woods flashed one great display of 18 holes and five poor-to-abysmal rounds.
His game is in need of an insane turnaround if he were searching for a win at this week’s opposite field event, let alone a WGC or a major. (And it’s probably not helping that he went on vacation this week.)
So, to be quite frank, the odds of this happening are perilously slim. Yes, Woods’ love affair at Firestone is no doubt strong with eight wins through the Bridgestone. He also previously won a PGA at Valhalla, where the major plays host again in two weeks.
But good vibrations can only go so far, which Woods proved when his struggling game in 2010 produced a rock bottom T78 showing at Firestone.
If you’re counting on Woods to win before the Playoffs, prepare to be disappointed.
Consecutive Top-Three Finishes (Not Wins)
In regular PGA Tour events, consecutive solo thirds would net 380 points, short of the (admittedly, arbitrary) 405 threshold we have set for Woods.
For the Bridgestone and the PGA though, these same results add up to 410, which is just enough for Woods. And as for other top-three scenarios, a solo second at the Bridgestone and a solo third at the PGA gives 525 points, the opposite 530, and consecutive solo runner-ups 645.
In other words, back-to-back solo top-threes gives Woods a coveted top 125 spot.
Still, while this scenario is more likely than a victory, it’s only marginally so. If Woods’ game needs a miracle cure to be ready to win, counting on top-three level play is unwise too. A win also affords Woods a throw-away tournament, whereas consecutive top-threes means the 38-year-old can’t bungle a single round. And it’s highly advised the top-threes are solo, otherwise it gets dicey when points are divided up equally among tied finishers.
Plenty of pratfalls, but this way is overall slightly easier. The difference between a win and a top-three is sometimes minimal, other times quite significant. And while it’s unlikely Woods wins without fantastic form, his game may just need to be in a pretty good place for consecutive top-threes. Save the 2010 and 2011 nightmares, Woods has never finished outside the top 10 at the Bridgestone and just once outside the top four. And his one showing at Valhalla was a win.
Certainly some positives there, but because of the shattered state of Woods’ game at the moment, this scenario remains a pipe dream.
A Solo Runner-Up and Another Top-10
We saved Woods’ most likely shot for last, and it’s probably the only scenario that is eminently plausible.
A solo second this week and any solo finish eighth or better at the PGA Championship nets the 405 points the 38-year-old needs. And if that solo runner-up is switched to the PGA, any untied top-10 finish at the Bridgestone breaks the 405 barrier.
Tied finishes are trickier. All you need to know is that finishing solo second is far more important than the other top-10 being untied.
Anyway, this is the most appealing option for a Woods fan. Unlike the consecutive top-threes scenario, Woods may only have to play well at all in one event to complete this task. The top-10 can be as back door as the 38-year-old wants it be, with the FedEx Cup standings omitting style points. As for the event where he must be on form, a solo second requires a high level of play, but not necessarily that close to a winning level in certain events (See: 2014 U.S. Open).
Really if Woods’ game shows any semblance of function throughout this week, he’ll pretty much finish in the top 10, leaving him a week to further progress for a solo second. And if his game is working quite well off the bat, that solo second at the Bridgestone won’t be too tough to attain, and that leaves a top-eight at the PGA.
I wouldn’t bet heavily on any of the three options, but I would keep an eye on this one. We’re still in the realm of “significantly unlikely” here, but this scenario gives him more than an infinitesimal chance of reaching the top 125.
Overall though, the picture looks bleak. Expect a 2014 FedEx Cup run without golf’s leading man.
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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Ray Guthrie
Aug 2, 2014 at 3:39 pm
Can he still qualify if he plays in Greensboro
Kevin Casey
Aug 6, 2014 at 5:54 pm
So, I’d say at this point he’s not playing in Greensboro. He didn’t in 2011 when he was in this position and, when asked if he would do so this year, he was noncommittal. And that was before the back problems he had at Firestone.
Nonetheless, let’s say he does decide to play there. To answer your question, he can still qualify if he plays at Greensboro. A win at either the PGA or Greensboro would easily be enough to get him in. If he doesn’t win though, it’s a lot trickier. Since he amassed zero points at Firestone, he still needs 405 points to qualify (if 450 ends up being the cutoff as I suggested). And if he’s playing Greensboro he still has two events left then. But it’s actually more of an uphill climb than before. I gave scenarios based on Tiger teeing it up at Firestone and the PGA. With the PGA and Greensboro, that’s still two events but Greensboro offers less total points than a WGC, so we have to adjust Tiger’s finishes a little higher.
If Tiger doesn’t win, the consecutive solo top-threes doesn’t necessarily work anymore. Two straight solo thirds leave him short. But a solo second and solo third or two solo seconds will get him to 450 total. Again, I won’t get into tied finishes because points are split equally among all of those tied.
As for the runner-up and other top-10 scenario, we once again get more restrictive. A solo runner-up at the PGA and any solo finish in the top 10 at Greensboro gets him to 450 total. When Greensboro is the runner-up though, he must finish solo sixth or better at the PGA. So yeah, a daunting task here. Even if Tiger plays at Greensboro, chances are slim for him to make the Playoffs.
Bob
Jul 30, 2014 at 3:36 pm
Let me just say that I’m a Tiger fan and I hope he breaks Jack’s record; however I don’t think Tiger will win a tournament in 2014
Bob Jones
Jul 30, 2014 at 2:44 pm
Why does anybody still care what Tiger does or doesn’t do? Enough already.
Christosterone
Jul 30, 2014 at 3:28 pm
He has won 79 tournaments.
Woods is a singular talent of his generation and belongs with very few others on golf’s Mount Rushmore.
That is why people care.
Rob
Jul 30, 2014 at 5:55 pm
@ Chrisostetone:
Pretty much nailed it. You could have also added that he brings an excitement factor that no other golfer matches.
Rich
Jul 30, 2014 at 10:21 pm
Not everyone likes a show off
Rich
Jul 31, 2014 at 2:38 am
Had to also mention that I saw Rory McIlroy play in the Australian Open last year and he hit driver off the 10th. 380m (416yrds) hole and he had 56m (61yrds) in for his second. If that’s not exciting golf, I’m not sure what is. He out drove Adam Scott by 20-30 yards. It was amazing. Make sure you don’t miss all the other exciting golf going on while your watching Tiger.
Dr. Troy
Jul 31, 2014 at 7:15 am
Just because we/I/others like Tiger and appreciate the excitement and energy he has always brought to the game, doesn’t mean(speaking for the others) that we don’t enjoy Rors dominate performances…or several other players for that matter….That’s what’s always confused me in these TW posts…The avg Joe Schmo fan might need Tiger or Phil to watch the coverage, but most of us don’t…although it’s preferred…
Rich
Aug 1, 2014 at 4:11 am
Dr Troy, just a reply to Rob as he said that “he brings an excitement factor that no other golfer matches”. A true golf fan likes all golf no matter who plays. I don’t like tiger but I hate the band wagon even more.
bradford
Jul 31, 2014 at 8:45 am
Sometimes I sit and watch average golfers from my back porch.
It’s nice…
…but honestly, I’d prefer to watch the best player in the history of the game–even if he’s a bit off.
Rich
Aug 1, 2014 at 4:12 am
That’s good for you then because that’s as good as it’s gonna be from now on.
raul
Jul 31, 2014 at 8:54 am
Yet you read this which shows that you do, indeed, care about Tiger. Whether you like the excitement he brings or you love to hate him, you still care.
Eldrick
Aug 1, 2014 at 4:13 am
This is such a lame comment dude
BOBBY D
Jul 30, 2014 at 1:05 pm
win and qualify or go home…eldrick doesn’t belong on the team or in the fed ex…too bad!!!!
bradford
Jul 31, 2014 at 8:59 am
Agreed, and I think Tiger would also agree–but that’s only based on every interview he’s had about it. He always says he wants to be on it but if he also wants to earn it.
Stu
Jul 30, 2014 at 8:23 am
As a European, my biggest fear is that Tiger gets a Captain’s pick and is then played ‘selectively’ in the fourballs where he has a partner to take the pressure off his game. So many US Captains have failed to grasp he performs best when he does not have to worry about others. Play him in the two fourballs and singles, a good shot at 2.5pts from 3.0 Keep picking him for the foursomes and he gets the same points, but from 5 giving Europe a couple of wins.
Hellstorm
Jul 30, 2014 at 12:45 am
He will be on the Ryder Cup….thats pretty much locked up. Somebody big is going to get left off the roster but it won’t be Woods.
JJ Man
Jul 29, 2014 at 1:52 pm
What scenario gets him into the Ryder Cup – if he has 2 top 20 finishes, do you pick him??
Jbun
Jul 29, 2014 at 2:31 pm
How could you not.
Captain Obvious
Jul 29, 2014 at 3:43 pm
If you had a brain and did not care what the media and talking heads would spew.
Brian
Jul 29, 2014 at 5:51 pm
I think a win and a top 2 is the only way he gets in. Tom Watson wants to win, and he will pick who he thinks will win the cup for USA. If tiger doesn’t win or show a great improvement from his last 2 starts I think you pick someone else.
Also, I think tiger needs more regular tourney reps, I think he should take advantage of the wrap around season and take some time to play a few smaller tourneys to get back into the swing of things. It would be good to have a big name in these smaller events and good for tiger to gain some confidence
Dan
Jul 30, 2014 at 11:36 am
“reps”……… I love it. Tigerspeak.
I cant wait until Saturday so I can get another “rep” in.
Hey Dan, what time is your “rep” this weekend? I have a threesome on the Red @ Bethpage, are you in?
I hope its not another 5+ hour “rep” this weekend.
Dr. Troy
Jul 31, 2014 at 7:17 am
couldn’t agree more
Dr. Troy
Jul 31, 2014 at 7:17 am
***in regards to him playing more that is…
Eldrick
Aug 1, 2014 at 7:55 am
Can you come to my house and play and I don’t mean golf. I get the feeling you like me some.