Connect with us

Opinion & Analysis

Three scenarios that get Tiger Woods into the FedEx Cup Playoffs

Published

on

In 2013, Tiger Woods entered the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational leading the FedEx Cup standings. Fifty-two weeks later, he’s 215th!

There are only three events left–and just two for Tiger–before The Playoffs are set and Woods needs to jump 90 spots in that span to qualify.

He currently owns 45 FedEx Cup points, with position No. 125 possessing 403 points. The final Top-125 cutoff will probably come in around 450 points, meaning Woods needs 405 points in the next two events to qualify.

Woods missed the Playoffs in 2011. Here’s the scenarios and odds of avoiding that fate:

Tiger Woods 2013 Bridgestone win

Just Win, Baby

If Woods wins the Bridgestone, he receives 550 points. And it’s 600 for the PGA Championship. Either way, he is no doubt in the Playoffs.

A dream scenario for sure, but highly chimerical when looking at Woods in 2014. There’s little tape to go off of in 2014, as the 38-year-old has put in just 20 full rounds of work.

Despite the limited play, we can see that the golf is largely poor. Yes, injury hindered him early on, but in his two starts since returning from back surgery, Woods flashed one great display of 18 holes and five poor-to-abysmal rounds.

His game is in need of an insane turnaround if he were searching for a win at this week’s opposite field event, let alone a WGC or a major. (And it’s probably not helping that he went on vacation this week.)

So, to be quite frank, the odds of this happening are perilously slim. Yes, Woods’ love affair at Firestone is no doubt strong with eight wins through the Bridgestone. He also previously won a PGA at Valhalla, where the major plays host again in two weeks.

But good vibrations can only go so far, which Woods proved when his struggling game in 2010 produced a rock bottom T78 showing at Firestone.

If you’re counting on Woods to win before the Playoffs, prepare to be disappointed.

a49a0ea4bb69864274f38476f724e9ec_crop_north

Consecutive Top-Three Finishes (Not Wins)

In regular PGA Tour events, consecutive solo thirds would net 380 points, short of the (admittedly, arbitrary) 405 threshold we have set for Woods.

For the Bridgestone and the PGA though, these same results add up to 410, which is just enough for Woods. And as for other top-three scenarios, a solo second at the Bridgestone and a solo third at the PGA gives 525 points, the opposite 530, and consecutive solo runner-ups 645.

In other words, back-to-back solo top-threes gives Woods a coveted top 125 spot.

Still, while this scenario is more likely than a victory, it’s only marginally so. If Woods’ game needs a miracle cure to be ready to win, counting on top-three level play is unwise too. A win also affords Woods a throw-away tournament, whereas consecutive top-threes means the 38-year-old can’t bungle a single round. And it’s highly advised the top-threes are solo, otherwise it gets dicey when points are divided up equally among tied finishers.

Plenty of pratfalls, but this way is overall slightly easier. The difference between a win and a top-three is sometimes minimal, other times quite significant. And while it’s unlikely Woods wins without fantastic form, his game may just need to be in a pretty good place for consecutive top-threes. Save the 2010 and 2011 nightmares, Woods has never finished outside the top 10 at the Bridgestone and just once outside the top four. And his one showing at Valhalla was a win.

Certainly some positives there, but because of the shattered state of Woods’ game at the moment, this scenario remains a pipe dream.

dubai16

A Solo Runner-Up and Another Top-10

We saved Woods’ most likely shot for last, and it’s probably the only scenario that is eminently plausible.

A solo second this week and any solo finish eighth or better at the PGA Championship nets the 405 points the 38-year-old needs. And if that solo runner-up is switched to the PGA, any untied top-10 finish at the Bridgestone breaks the 405 barrier.

Tied finishes are trickier. All you need to know is that finishing solo second is far more important than the other top-10 being untied.

Anyway, this is the most appealing option for a Woods fan. Unlike the consecutive top-threes scenario, Woods may only have to play well at all in one event to complete this task. The top-10 can be as back door as the 38-year-old wants it be, with the FedEx Cup standings omitting style points. As for the event where he must be on form, a solo second requires a high level of play, but not necessarily that close to a winning level in certain events (See: 2014 U.S. Open).

Really if Woods’ game shows any semblance of function throughout this week, he’ll pretty much finish in the top 10, leaving him a week to further progress for a solo second. And if his game is working quite well off the bat, that solo second at the Bridgestone won’t be too tough to attain, and that leaves a top-eight at the PGA.

I wouldn’t bet heavily on any of the three options, but I would keep an eye on this one. We’re still in the realm of “significantly unlikely” here, but this scenario gives him more than an infinitesimal chance of reaching the top 125.

Overall though, the picture looks bleak. Expect a 2014 FedEx Cup run without golf’s leading man.

Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. Ray Guthrie

    Aug 2, 2014 at 3:39 pm

    Can he still qualify if he plays in Greensboro

    • Kevin Casey

      Aug 6, 2014 at 5:54 pm

      So, I’d say at this point he’s not playing in Greensboro. He didn’t in 2011 when he was in this position and, when asked if he would do so this year, he was noncommittal. And that was before the back problems he had at Firestone.

      Nonetheless, let’s say he does decide to play there. To answer your question, he can still qualify if he plays at Greensboro. A win at either the PGA or Greensboro would easily be enough to get him in. If he doesn’t win though, it’s a lot trickier. Since he amassed zero points at Firestone, he still needs 405 points to qualify (if 450 ends up being the cutoff as I suggested). And if he’s playing Greensboro he still has two events left then. But it’s actually more of an uphill climb than before. I gave scenarios based on Tiger teeing it up at Firestone and the PGA. With the PGA and Greensboro, that’s still two events but Greensboro offers less total points than a WGC, so we have to adjust Tiger’s finishes a little higher.

      If Tiger doesn’t win, the consecutive solo top-threes doesn’t necessarily work anymore. Two straight solo thirds leave him short. But a solo second and solo third or two solo seconds will get him to 450 total. Again, I won’t get into tied finishes because points are split equally among all of those tied.

      As for the runner-up and other top-10 scenario, we once again get more restrictive. A solo runner-up at the PGA and any solo finish in the top 10 at Greensboro gets him to 450 total. When Greensboro is the runner-up though, he must finish solo sixth or better at the PGA. So yeah, a daunting task here. Even if Tiger plays at Greensboro, chances are slim for him to make the Playoffs.

  2. Bob

    Jul 30, 2014 at 3:36 pm

    Let me just say that I’m a Tiger fan and I hope he breaks Jack’s record; however I don’t think Tiger will win a tournament in 2014

  3. Bob Jones

    Jul 30, 2014 at 2:44 pm

    Why does anybody still care what Tiger does or doesn’t do? Enough already.

    • Christosterone

      Jul 30, 2014 at 3:28 pm

      He has won 79 tournaments.
      Woods is a singular talent of his generation and belongs with very few others on golf’s Mount Rushmore.
      That is why people care.

      • Rob

        Jul 30, 2014 at 5:55 pm

        @ Chrisostetone:

        Pretty much nailed it. You could have also added that he brings an excitement factor that no other golfer matches.

        • Rich

          Jul 30, 2014 at 10:21 pm

          Not everyone likes a show off

        • Rich

          Jul 31, 2014 at 2:38 am

          Had to also mention that I saw Rory McIlroy play in the Australian Open last year and he hit driver off the 10th. 380m (416yrds) hole and he had 56m (61yrds) in for his second. If that’s not exciting golf, I’m not sure what is. He out drove Adam Scott by 20-30 yards. It was amazing. Make sure you don’t miss all the other exciting golf going on while your watching Tiger.

          • Dr. Troy

            Jul 31, 2014 at 7:15 am

            Just because we/I/others like Tiger and appreciate the excitement and energy he has always brought to the game, doesn’t mean(speaking for the others) that we don’t enjoy Rors dominate performances…or several other players for that matter….That’s what’s always confused me in these TW posts…The avg Joe Schmo fan might need Tiger or Phil to watch the coverage, but most of us don’t…although it’s preferred…

          • Rich

            Aug 1, 2014 at 4:11 am

            Dr Troy, just a reply to Rob as he said that “he brings an excitement factor that no other golfer matches”. A true golf fan likes all golf no matter who plays. I don’t like tiger but I hate the band wagon even more.

    • bradford

      Jul 31, 2014 at 8:45 am

      Sometimes I sit and watch average golfers from my back porch.
      It’s nice…

      …but honestly, I’d prefer to watch the best player in the history of the game–even if he’s a bit off.

      • Rich

        Aug 1, 2014 at 4:12 am

        That’s good for you then because that’s as good as it’s gonna be from now on.

    • raul

      Jul 31, 2014 at 8:54 am

      Yet you read this which shows that you do, indeed, care about Tiger. Whether you like the excitement he brings or you love to hate him, you still care.

  4. BOBBY D

    Jul 30, 2014 at 1:05 pm

    win and qualify or go home…eldrick doesn’t belong on the team or in the fed ex…too bad!!!!

    • bradford

      Jul 31, 2014 at 8:59 am

      Agreed, and I think Tiger would also agree–but that’s only based on every interview he’s had about it. He always says he wants to be on it but if he also wants to earn it.

  5. Stu

    Jul 30, 2014 at 8:23 am

    As a European, my biggest fear is that Tiger gets a Captain’s pick and is then played ‘selectively’ in the fourballs where he has a partner to take the pressure off his game. So many US Captains have failed to grasp he performs best when he does not have to worry about others. Play him in the two fourballs and singles, a good shot at 2.5pts from 3.0 Keep picking him for the foursomes and he gets the same points, but from 5 giving Europe a couple of wins.

  6. Hellstorm

    Jul 30, 2014 at 12:45 am

    He will be on the Ryder Cup….thats pretty much locked up. Somebody big is going to get left off the roster but it won’t be Woods.

  7. JJ Man

    Jul 29, 2014 at 1:52 pm

    What scenario gets him into the Ryder Cup – if he has 2 top 20 finishes, do you pick him??

    • Jbun

      Jul 29, 2014 at 2:31 pm

      How could you not.

      • Captain Obvious

        Jul 29, 2014 at 3:43 pm

        If you had a brain and did not care what the media and talking heads would spew.

    • Brian

      Jul 29, 2014 at 5:51 pm

      I think a win and a top 2 is the only way he gets in. Tom Watson wants to win, and he will pick who he thinks will win the cup for USA. If tiger doesn’t win or show a great improvement from his last 2 starts I think you pick someone else.

      Also, I think tiger needs more regular tourney reps, I think he should take advantage of the wrap around season and take some time to play a few smaller tourneys to get back into the swing of things. It would be good to have a big name in these smaller events and good for tiger to gain some confidence

      • Dan

        Jul 30, 2014 at 11:36 am

        “reps”……… I love it. Tigerspeak.

        I cant wait until Saturday so I can get another “rep” in.

        Hey Dan, what time is your “rep” this weekend? I have a threesome on the Red @ Bethpage, are you in?

        I hope its not another 5+ hour “rep” this weekend.

      • Dr. Troy

        Jul 31, 2014 at 7:17 am

        couldn’t agree more

        • Dr. Troy

          Jul 31, 2014 at 7:17 am

          ***in regards to him playing more that is…

          • Eldrick

            Aug 1, 2014 at 7:55 am

            Can you come to my house and play and I don’t mean golf. I get the feeling you like me some.

Leave a Reply

Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

Published

on

As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

Continue Reading

Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

Published

on

Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

Continue Reading

Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

Published

on

Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by BBC SPORT (@bbcsport)

“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

Continue Reading

WITB

Facebook

Trending