Opinion & Analysis
2022 Nedbank Golf Challenge: Betting Picks & Selections

Previously known as the Million Dollar Challenge (who knows what that is worth today?) the Gary Player Country Club hosts the 40th running of its invitational event, flitting between an initial 12 man field to the modern day 70 or thereabouts.
Given the conditions of entry, it is no surprise to read the catalogue of top class champions, ranging from Seve to Faldo, from Sergio to Westwood, and all those in-between. This year, the event is a chance for those on the cusp of the DP World top-50 to confirm their place in next week’s seasonal decider, the DP World Tour Championship, though it’s hard to make a solid case for players currently outside of the top-70, Wil Besseling and Nicolai Von Dellingshausen, to launch above superior rivals is a question I’ll leave to you.
A solid tee-to-green game is vital around this long, 7500-odd yard track, and whilst the yardage may prompt the view that distance is all, of the top-five in driving distance from 2017 to 2019, only Joost Luiten finished on the front page of the leaderboard. Smack it around, sure, but avoid the deep rough, and ensure either approaches are solid or the scrambling is solid enough to avoid bogies. Any less and it’s a fairly early goodnight and no hope of winning a tough tournament at around 12-under.
Previous champions arrive in form – the last five have had a win or top finish/es in their previous ten starts – so both favourites, Tommy Fleetwood and Jordan Smith, have to have appeal.
It’s tough to split them despite the 55 places between them in the official world rankings, but the slightly younger man gives the impression he’s only just begun and gets the nod.
The forecast of rain will make fairway finding even more of a necessity and, whilst the man from Southport will relish that factor, it instantly points us to the chances of Smith, who will celebrate his 30th birthday the day before the first round, and that after the most impressive win of his career to date.
It’s not as if his win in Portugal was hard to predict – he had been a conquering force on the Jamega/Algarve Tour before making his way from EuroPro, to Challenge and European level, almost dominating from tee to green, but rarely able to capitalize after a short game that just wouldn’t behave. It was always only a matter of time, and with two of his previous five victories (as a professional) occurring in the last week of October….this time next year, Rodders.
Numbers don’t lie, and in his last 14 completed starts, Smith has only once ranked outside of the top-20 for ‘off-the-tee’, finished within the top-20 for approaches on eight occasions and led the field twice for tee-to-green with six further top-10 rankings. These are stunning figures, including at Le Golf National and Valderrama, so despite poor course figures, I have no doubt he is ready to go again after a week off.
There will be reason why punters would believe Smith is too short at 14/1 but in a season that has recently thrown up statistical fits in the shape of Adrian Otaegui at Valders, Kurt Kitayama (runner-up to Rory McIlroy at Congaree) and Eddie Pepperell, flying, even without that one big finish, it’s tough to ignore the stats.
I’m no fan of lists, but:
- *1st off-the-tee
- *9th in approaches
- *3rd tee-to-green
- *4th for scrambling
- *9th for birdies
- *5th in bogies
- *2nd par-five performance
and now 17th and first for putting at Valderrama and Dom Pedro.
In a limited field where only ten or so can be seriously considered as winners, Jordan is ready to get close to the world’s top echelon and into the majors, his best of those being 9th at the 2017 US PGA, two weeks after his win in Germany.
The list of winners here reads very much like a who’s-who of links specialists, and therefore the afore-mentioned Pepperell must have an obvious chance. I just wonder if his lack of length off the tee will put too much pressure on a thus-far excellent iron game, certainly against the likes of the top few, whilst Antoine Rozner was also strongly considered but has performed nothing other than average in this part of the world, and it’s tough to see him saving those crucial pars, the Frenchman’s short stick currently being worthy of being classed x-rated and several leagues below the brilliance of the wins at Qatar and Dubai.
Instead, at ten points bigger, take a chance that this is a going week for Victor Perez.
Rozner’s compatriot has turned into a very hard-to-read player, but in a field of 60-odd, his very best form stands the closest scrutiny.
Perez’ win at the Dunhill Links in 2019 came via beating a notably wind-positive field – Matt Southgate, Tommy Fleetwood, Tom Lewis and Jordan Smith behind – whilst the form of his top placings also stacks up as tremendously relevant this week.
Two shots behind Lee Westwood in Abu Dhabi in 2020, he was joined in second place by 2019 Nedbank champion Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Louis Oosthuizen, the latter with a host of top-10 finishes at the Gary Player, whilst two-time champion Garcia joined 2012 champ Martin Kaymer in 8th.
Later that season, his runner-up finish at Wentworth behind two-time Dunhill Links Tyrrell Hatton at Wentworth came courtesy of an outstanding approach game, the result linking nicely with Danny Willett, Alex Noren and Seve, all winners at Virginia Water and in Sun City.
Form since has been sporadic, and his win at the Dutch Open was overdue, but it came via another set of stunning tee-to-green figures (13-plus shots over the field), and he carried that on to the European Open at the huge Green Eagle course.
I’m okay with a closing 23rd at the shortened Czech Masters and third at the Italian Open behind Bob McIntyre and Fitzpatrick, whilst he was inside the top-10 going into Sunday at Le Golf National, a venue that Nedbank winners Retief Goosen, Kaymer, Fleetwood and Noren have won at.
Ignore Portugal – Thomas Bjorn and Noren both missed the cut in their previous outings – as a birdie-fest would not have suited, and concentrate on his seasonal top-10 ranking for approaches and tee-to-green. Ranking 7th for ball-striking over the last three months gives an indication of the strength of his current game and he just fits well on that list of winners and placed players.
It was tough to pick between the last pair with ‘ticks’ in all four of my personal list of ‘attributes required’, so I’ll play both, particularly in the top-20 market, where one winner is a profit, two is a ‘Billy’.
With both Yannik Paul and Marcel Schneider, we are taking two of the hottest ball-strikers on the tour, both inside the top-10 for events over the past 12 weeks.
The first of the named Germans, Paul’s first ‘proper’ event at this level was a top-10 at the rain-effected Joburg Open – previously won by Branden Grace and George Coetzee – whilst his runner-up in Belgium, top-20s at Green Eagle, the Barbasol and Barracuda championships, and book-ends of 68 and 66 in Italy point to a player consistent enough in his form.
In fifth place going into payday in France, he matched that eighth place finish when closing in at the Spanish Open.
The 28-year-old was telegraphing a big one, and after a very respectable 21st at Valderrama, finally came good in Mallorca in what was admittedly a fairly weak contest.
Players can do no more than win, though, and with positive figures throughout the season for all driving aspects, he can again match his figures of top-10 for approach, 13th for tee-to-green and greens-in-reg. He will need to, as the short game needs a touch of work, but having won on the Spanish island off a minus putting figure, he knows what needs working on and that something shouldn’t be needed in huge amounts this week.
Almost four years his elder, Schneider is hitting the ball equally well as anyone on tour.
Flitting between the main tour and the Challenge Tour, the german should not need to step down a level if he carries on what seems a long-term wave of excellent ball-striking.
Long yet accurate off the tee seems a good start for the test this week, whilst 19th for tee-to-green will give him plenty of chances on the greens, especially on the crucial par-fours, for which he ranks third over the last 12 weeks.
We always see these quality iron players as strugglers on the greens, but with the emphasis on keeping dropped shots off the card, his decent scrambling stats will help steady any missed birdie chances.
Form-wise he looks very similar to Smith, and even his compatriot, before their respective victories, and his figures since the Catalunya Championship in May are very impressive.
In 19 outings including Girona, the 32-year-old has posted six top-10s, five top-20 finishes and a pair of top-30s.
In second place going into the last day of the three-round Czech Masters (an event won twice by Thomas Pieters, who surely would have disputed favouritism this week) the immediate seventh place in Crans shows an ability to play the altitude courses, whilst his back record shows top-10 finishes at courses as diverse as Green Eagle and the low-scoring Trophee Hassan at Golf du Palais Royal.
Averaging around plus-six for tee-to-green in his last five starts, and off an excellent closing top-10 in Portugal, a result despite, not because of, his flat stick, Scheider can cement his place inside the top-50 and an invitation to Dubai.
Recommended Bets:
Jordan Smith WIN
Victor Perez WIN/TOP-5
Yannik Paul Top-10
Yannik Paul Top-20
Marcel Schneider Top-10
Marcel Schneider Top-20
Opinion & Analysis
The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Podcasts
Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Opinion & Analysis
On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.