Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson? That’s your winner at this week’s Farmers Insurance Open at prestigious Torrey Pines Golf Course outside San Diego.

Well, at least history says one of those two will win since they’ve combined for 11 wins during the past 20 years at the venue, including Eldrick’s 2008 win at the U.S. Open on Torrey Pines’ South Course. If you’re in a one-and-done league it’s a conundrum, but luckily most of you have a fantasy golf team with multiple slots! So go ahead and mark those guys down in permanent ink while we break down the other nuances of the onward trek that is the PGA Tour’s West Coast swing. It’s Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

Many Tour pros will be making their first starts of the year, along with the inclusion of many names entering on sponsor’s exemptions. The field is strong and how some translate their play over from hiatus or, in some eyes, obscurity of trans-Atlantic events like last week’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. There, Mickelson collected a seven-figure appearance fee and tested a new driver. While a win is important, many other golfers will still be tinkering leading up to next week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open, which Mickelson won last year, and the Accenture Match Play Championships in four weeks.

Bubba Watson

Tee box. Pink PING driver. Bombs away. That is the 2012 Masters champion’s formula for success and it has served him well on this lengthy course. This is the site of his second Tour win, which came in 2011 when he put together three rounds in the 60’s. You really don’t need to hang more than two to put yourself in the top 10 and Watson has done that well. He’s also put a T4 and T7 in his resume for this tournament and has solid rounds this season to suggest his Masters hangover is over and he’s ready put himself back among the elite talk. The issue is just focus for four straight days. It’s easy to have it at the Masters, harder to carry it week to week early in the year.

Rickie Fowler

In Fowler’s brief career, he’s posted a fifth-place finish followed by T20, T13 and T6 results. With all that said, he has just one win in his Tour career. And that’s the trouble with Rickie — you’re not picking him to win as much as post one or two low rounds. But do you trust him enough to start him on a tournament’s first two days? If there were a place to get off the schnide and nab another trophy, this would be the spot.

Jordan Spieth

Last year, Spieth made his Tour debut at Torrey Pines by cashing in on a sponsor’s exemption. However, he failed to cash in on the course, missing the cut in shooting 72 and 73. But that was a long time ago and Spieth has proven there is very little in his game to worry you. If there is trepidation, it is his coming off a MC two weeks ago at the birdie-friendly Sony Open in advance of a venue where he must drive efficiently to navigate the longest Tour course.

Lee Westwood

Westwood hasn’t played the Farmers since 2004 and this is the earliest he’s ever played a tournament on the PGA Tour. But the Englishman, whose tee-to-green accuracy has improved much in recent years, also played the 2008 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines and finished alone in third, just a shot back of Woods and Rocco Mediate to enter the playoff. And were it not for that final-round 73, we could very well be talking about Westy as a major champion. But we’re not and he’s a risky pick because of his propensity to mess up on the final day. He’s not going to miss a cut with his solid iron play, so if you’re looking for someone off the radar, this could be a sly pick.

Jason Day

Another making his Tour debut, Day appears to be a guy hammering away at getting his first major. He’s also a golfer with a knack for getting low, though many times it comes on the final day and boosts his finish. He’s made the cut all three times he’s played the tournament, but has just two rounds in the 60’s. However, a player entering his prime, fresh off a win in Australia at the World Cup of Golf in November in the midst of family tragedy has the moxie and skills to string it all together in one week.

REWARD

I’ve already outlined there’s 1A and 1B when it comes to this week. If you’re in a Yahoo league, you will find the majority of your “sure things” are in Group A. As such, some people just won’t pick the big names, preferring to wait a week for the world’s best golfer to get a few rounds under his Nike belt before he graces their lineup. Don’t be stupid. Someone took this same approach last year and probably missed out on a 100 points for over-thinking strategy. If you want to gain ground or build a lead, don’t do it at the expense of expelling your A-listers. This is not the week to toss caution to the coastal wind.

Tiger Woods

No player has won more at one golf course than Tiger has won at Torrey Pines. He first won in 1999, setting a course record of 22-under par, which has yet to be equaled. Then Woods won again in 2003 before running off four consecutive wins from ’05-08. And finally he picked up his first of five wins last year with a bristling 14-under round and four-stroke victory that screamed “I’m back!” Don’t get cute and try to save starts, ride the horse for the course. (I will repeat the previous sentence prior to Bay Hill and Firestone.)

Phil Mickelson

Lefty has become fairly accustomed to playing bridesmaid to Woods’ bride during the years, but it must sting Mickelson a little to see Tiger win so many on a course that clearly favors Mickelson’s eye. He won in ’93, won two from ’00-01 and has finished runner-up twice, the last coming three years ago when he came in a stroke back of Bubba Watson. His driving does scare me a touch, but it’s a course he loves and can be had even if off his game a little.

Brandt Snedeker

Not only did Snedeker win in 2012 with a 16-under 272 total (and needing a playoff against Kyle Stanley), but he tied for second last year, finished T9 in 2011 and T2 in ’10. With his putting skills and course familiarity, he’s as solid a pick you could go with if you weren’t using Woods or Mickelson.

Nick Watney

The thing about deciding many times whether a golfer is a risk or a reward comes down to the argument over whether course affinity and aptitude outweighs current form. Watney is a guy who loves this tournament. The former champion has a slew of top-10 finishes. While I’m always wary of golfers not on a hot streak since you just never know how their practice has gone, Watney’s success at Torrey Pines is impossible to ignore. He’s the 2009 champion and has T4, T6 and T9 finishes since then.

Bill Haas

The former FedEx Cup champion is really on a roll to start this season, which was accented by his T6 finish last week at the Humana Challenge. Haas shot 23-under and had it not been for Patrick Reed’s ridiculous first 54 holes, we could have seen him fighting for even more money. Now he enters a tournament that has seen him finish tied for ninth last year, T4 the year before, with another top-10 and three top-20’s to his credit over the years. With Zach Johnson resting and Reed’s withdrawal because of a rib injury, Haas may very well carry in the title of hottest golfer.

RUIN

With any tournament, prognostication is in the eye of the beholder. There are good names out there to mix in on your fantasy lineup (Keegan Bradley, Hunter Mahan, Ian Poulter, Graham DeLaet), so why you’d ever run a finger down the field of names and stop on… hang on, let me look… Bronson La’Cassie and think “That’s the guy to get me four days of points” is absurd. I just looked up La’Cassie and the Aussie looks like a fun guy to have a drink with, but the Web.com grad has already missed four cuts in four events this year, so he’s Ruin. Here’s four more.

Max Homa

At the University of California-Berkeley, Homa was an individual NCAA national champion. He made it out of Q-school and made his PGA Tour debut at the Frys.com Open. He made the cut there and the Shriners Open, and this will be his first tournament of 2014. Playing on a sponsor’s exemption, he sounds a little like Spieth last year, just with two tournaments under his belt. Torrey is hard and the field strong. I’d wager he misses his first cut, just like Spieth did, but he could be an equally strong golfer by year’s end.

Tag Ridings

With Patrick Reed’s withdrawal, Ridings slipped in as first alternate. Good for him. He actually finished in the top 20 last year and has made the cut the last four times he’s played Torrey, but as the 489th-ranked golfer in the world with a scoring average of 71, he needed a Monday qualifier just to play the OHL Classic this year and is hardly worth a flyer.

Ben Crane

Crane’s issue is similar to fellow “Golf Boy” Watson’s. They’re good, fun-loving guys, and while that approach can make life more enjoyable, it also hasn’t translated into a consistent winning approach on a Tour where focus and corrective range time is needed to compete. The 2010 Farmers champions, four-time winner Crane hasn’t won since. While his play this year and last week has been solid, he has missed his last two cuts at this event.

J.B. Holmes

I’ve used Holmes in years past probably two to three times during the year. This won’t be one of those weeks. Not only is Holmes returning to Tour action for the first time since breaking his ankle last march, but prior to that missed four of five cuts in his 2013 season. His track record at the Farmers is also bad with MC’s the last two years and too many rounds of over 75 to his credit when he did make the weekend.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the tournament or if you have any fantasy lineup inquiries. Good luck!

This week’s picks:

Yahoo!

A: T. Woods (S), B. Snedeker

B: K. Bradley (S), B. Haas (S), J. Day, H. Mahan

C: N. Watney (S), J. Walker

(Last week: 183 points; Winter segment: 580 points; Rank: 8,620)

PGATour.com

T. Woods, P. Mickelson, B. Haas, B. Snedeker

(Last week: 317 points; Season: 1,346; Rank: 5,464)

Golf Channel

Group 1: T. Woods

Group 2: B. Haas

Group 3: B. Stuard

Group 4: H. Swafford

(Last week: $163,115; Season: $1,396,879; Mulligan: $97,199; Rank: 14,777)

(Editor’s note: This article has been amended to include Max Homa and exclude John Daly, who will be playing the Commercial Bank Qatar Masters after not receiving a sponsor’s exemption into the Farmers.)