Tired of picking ball-strikers? Then you’re in luck because this is the week where packing a driver, a silky swing and a little bit of an attitude will get someone to the top of the leaderboard.

The HP Byron Nelson Championship, played at the Four Seasons Resort and Club Dallas, has been decided on its spacious putting surfaces the last few years, not in hitting fairways in rudimentary and sometimes mundane fashion.

What I love so much about fantasy golf is the way little bits of information gets collectively added week after week, hopefully filed away for future use. Sometimes that info comes from an oversight, such as John Senden performing well on a tight track like TPC Sawgrass. Sometimes it comes from info that’s nearly impossible to get without actually talking to a player, such as the discovery of Martin Kaymer’s natural fade being his internal opposition since he won the 2010 PGA Championship.

Now, Kaymer doesn’t care how a course sets up, he’s got to hit a fade. That obviously worked well for him in last week’s win at The Player’s Championship, but will it this week? Will he remain as confident when the putts aren’t falling or when he begins missing greens in regulation? That’s the true test of an elite golfer.

One who does seem to contain a steely demeanor necessary for longstanding success is the PGA Tour’s resident boy-next-door, Jordan Spieth.

Spieth, a 20-year-old former University of Texas star, returns to his native state determined to get the second career win that’s been eluding him lately.

The Dallas area will host this week and next week’s tournaments, so expect to see many in the field this week play again next. Remember to store this week’s tournament information in an easily accessible spot, since there’s a good chance it will come in handy next week.

For now, we’re breaking down the fantasy prospects of several golfers in this week’s HP Byron Nelson Championship edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

History at this tournament suggests we’ll see a first-time winner, but the names that have won here in recent years are very recognizable names for their contention at or winning of major tournaments. Jason Day (2010), Keegan Bradley (’11), Jason Dufner (’12) and Sang-moon Bae (’13) all netted their first million-dollar paycheck here. We won’t know until down the road what will become of a potentially new first-time winner, but it may be we already have some solid info to suggest a bright future. Here’s a look at five golfers who are somewhat risky in the results they could yield.

Paul Casey

With four top-20s this season, Casey continues to trend upward and is a very intriguing Yahoo C pick. His last two tournaments are a T18 at the ultra-tight RBC Heritage, which means he hit fairways and small greens, and a T11 at the Zurich Classic. He had two really strong rounds in each, and if he can be consistent with the putter the other two days, he could be a sneaky pick for a top-10 finish this week. The only wariness may come from the fact he hasn’t played the Four Seasons before, but he has played next week’s Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial, and he finished solo fifth and T13 in back-to-back years in 2009-10. Keep an eye on him, if not for this week when I’m using him, but also for next.

Charl Schwartzel

There will be a lot of people sitting on Schwartzel this week, but I’m not absolutely convinced this will be a week where he can do enough to contend. He did everything right last year to finish solo third in his debut, but this year has seen him struggle with his approach shots. By the numbers, he sets up to play well since he comes in nearly identical to what he did in the first half of last year. He’s the truest definition of a risk this week because he could either hold that mold or break out of it.

Brandt Snedeker

Definitely off the radar entering this week, Snedeker has a small history at this event, but he does have a good resume for next week. He last played the Byron Nelson in his rookie year of 2007, posting two rounds in the 60s to finish T60. At The Player’s, Snedeker shot middle rounds of 69 and 67 but book-ended rounds of 75 and 76. I’m optimistic this is a week where he gets his putter going again and plays with confidence. He has the killer instinct, he just needs to get that swagger back.

Martin Kaymer

One tournament win isn’t enough to convince me that Kaymer should be a regular fantasy selection. There will be a lot of people putting him on their roster a week late, which is something I won’t be doing. Odds are extremely high he won’t back it up, which is somewhat of a freebie in Yahoo B. Use that to your advantage and instead take someone like Graham DeLaet, who is looking for win No. 1. Kaymer did finish T5 in his debut last year with four rounds in the 60s, but I’m going to gamble we see a letdown over no letup.

John Senden

The only reason Senden winds up here and not a Ruin is his recent run of fine play the last three weeks. He posted a T8 at The Masters and then put up a T29 in New Orleans and a T26 at The Player’s, where he was in contention until a final-round 77. That’s the Aussie’s upside, but Senden’s downside is missed cuts in his last three tries following a solo seventh in 2009. His recent form may be a better indicator for this week (a la Justin Rose and Rory Sabbatini in recent weeks) but with just two spots for Yahoo C, lots of better options exist.

REWARD

From a strategy standpoint, this is a week where I’m willing to be a little bit less cautious. I’m a firm believer in slow and steady wins the race, and I don’t care about compiling a big weekly point total at the expense of perhaps dropping a lead or the momentum I have. I hope you’re in a similar position of being able to manage your aggressiveness. I have my share of safe picks, but this is a week where I want to potentially separate myself from my competitors and draw temptingly close to the top of Yahoo’s overall leaderboard. The five below offer my biggest chance for reward.

Ryan Palmer

Yahoo Group C will always hold the largest amount of golfers in the field, so it could offer the most varying selections, yet it always seems there are just a handful of worthy picks. This week, Texas native Palmer is one of those obvious picks. He has two second-place finishes this year and a recent T7, which pairs nicely with making the cut the past three years and posting a playoff loss in 2011 and a T9 the next year. The Texas native is 16th in GIR this year and will drive the ball long enough and straight enough (eighth in total driving) to provide short approach shots.

Dustin Johnson

Johnson showed glimpses last week of future success, which is great since a lot of people will be overlooking him this week in Yahoo B. With only two par-5s to take advantage of this week, Johnson’s length off the tee will prove to be a lovely advantage when attacking pins on Four Seasons undulating greens. Don’t forget the ridiculous season D.J. was having (win, 18th, T11, T2, solo second, T33, T4) up until a withdrawal at the Shell Houston Open. He finished T20 in his last start here in 2011 and T7 and T4 the two years before. In a place where the wind can blow, Johnson has proven to be brilliant under those conditions.

Keegan Bradley

When Bradley opened last year’s tournament with an incredulous round of 60, it appeared he’d all but run away with the tournament. But you have to be consistent over four rounds and Bae was, not Bradley, though he still finished solo second. That he has that result along with his previous win describes an affinity for Four Seasons. He also has a T24 from 2012 and gets off to a quick start.

Marc Leishman

Coming off a T23 at TPC Sawgrass, in which Leishman closed with a 67, I’m pulling the trigger on using him at a venue where’s proven himself each time out. He doesn’t have the run of success he had last year when he entered with three top-10s and came away with a T12, but he was T3 in 2012 without any of that either. That’s a good sign that he likes the venue. Leishman also has a T12 in ’10 and a T8 in ’09. I’m going to pair him with the hot Rory Sabbatini, who won in 2009, in Yahoo A and let others use a Matt Kuchar start.

Jordan Spieth

At this point, all doubts about Spieth should be gone. All of them. There’s no question about his closing ability. You can’t question that at his age. You can, for example, do so with Lee Westwood or Kuchar. He’s already played this venue four times in his youth and is hungry to win in his hometown. Spieth tied for 68th last year with rounds of 69-68-73-75.

RUIN

Course setup is one of those hard-to-decipher characteristics when it comes to fantasy golf, because you just don’t know how a course suits a player until he says whether it does or doesn’t. All there is to go on is what he’s shown through the years. Sometimes a bad track can halt a good streak of play and sometimes the track gets someone going who had seen undesirable courses in his last few starts. Here’s a look at five who I don’t like this week.

Brian Davis

Davis is coming off a T11 at The Player’s Championship, which was easily his best result of the season. But it’s too early to say whether that’s the start of something good or if it was an aberration. He missed the cut last year, was T56 in 2012, missed the cut in ’11 and ’10, which all came after his solo second of ’09. That second-place result came after four weeks of very good play, including two preceding T5s. Since he doesn’t have that this season, I’m not buying his contention this week. I’m looking to a sorry GIR percentage and a barely average strokes gained putting. I’ll hold off for now on the Englishman.

Boo Weekley

Weekley has missed the cut in three of his past five starts and the ones he’s made (RBC Heritage, Zurich Classic) he should have performed well at but did not. He’s a ball-striker and this is not a ball-striker course. The laid back Weekley missed the cut last year and finished T63 the season before in his only two starts. Hits fairways and GIR at some of the highest rates on Tour, but he’s also near dead last in putting, and this isn’t the week to skimp on good putters.

Louis Oosthuizen

After missing the cut at The Player’s Championship, Oosthuizen has now missed the cut in three of his past four starts and still only has two rounds in the 60s the season. He withdrew during last year’s tournament and missed the cut the year before. That doesn’t exactly lend itself to confidence entering this week, nor should his woeful putting statistics. Too many choices in Yahoo C to even consider and across all games, he’s one to be avoided.

Ken Duke

This has not been Duke’s year for low-scoring rounds. He’s now missed the cut three times in his past five starts and those two made cuts resulted in T48 and T75 finishes. He missed the cut last year in the Byron Nelson, which is important to note since the last two seasons he has not been in the form he was during 2012 when he finished T7 at Four Seasons and put up five other top-10s. Give him a short course and tight tree-lined fairways and he’s a good pick, but that won’t be the case this week on this course.

Patrick Reed

I mentioned a few weeks back it was put up or shut up time for Reed after cockily touting his top-5 mindset but failing to produce in a field where a true top-fiver would have succeeded. Now Reed is rolling into Dallas on the heels of consecutive missed cuts, and he hasn’t exactly beat up this course. Last year, he finished 83rd, getting axed in a secondary cut, and he missed the cut in his debut go-round. If you don’t have humility on Tour, golf courses will eat you up, and Reed has been learning lately he’s a tasty Texas morsel.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to discuss your the HP Byron Nelson Championship, pick apart my selections or sort through fantasy dilemmas you may have. Good luck!

This week’s picks:

Yahoo!

Group A: M. Leishman (S), R. Sabbatini

Group B: J. Spieth (S), K. Bradley (S), G. DeLaet, D. Johnson

Group C: R. Palmer (S), P. Casey

(Last week: 185 points; Spring segment: 922; Spring rank: 1,102; Season points: 2,915; Full Season rank: 559 – 99th percentile)

PGATour.com

J. Spieth, K. Bradley, R. Palmer, M. Kuchar

(Last week: 376 points; Season: 4,949; Rank: 4,075)

Golf Channel

Group 1: J. Spieth

Group 2: G. DeLaet

Group 3: J. Overton

Group 4: B. Gates

(Last week: $400,100; Season: $9,024,850; Mulligan: $86,710; Rank: 9,515 of 39,016)