Opinion & Analysis
Want to go lower? The stats say you need an earlier tee time
Recently, I was researching data for some of my PGA Tour clients on tee times (late vs. early) and scoring average. Is there a correlation, I wondered. I assumed there was, and knew that the results would be applicable to golfers of all handicap levels. Everyone could use these findings to help them refine their on-course and practice strategies and improve their scores.
The PGA Tour defines an “early round” as any round where the player tees off in the first half of the set of tee times for that day, and one of the clear results was that a player’s average score is typically better in early rounds than later rounds.
For the last five seasons, the early rounds scoring average has been 0.163 strokes better than the late rounds scoring average. While 0.163 strokes may not seem like much of a difference, it translates to roughly 20 spots on the PGA Tour Money List.
So, why are the late rounds worse than the early rounds? My theory is that it comes down to two different factors.
No. 1: Wind
The wind tends to pick up around noon and is usually at its lowest speed at the break of dawn. Here’s a chart showing the measured wind speeds in Orlando, Fla., on March 21st of this year. I picked this date arbitrarily to illustrate what the typical wind speeds look like during the day.
Last year I did some statistical research on Tour players and wind. What I found was that once the wind speed reached greater than 12 mph, the scores started to rise noticeably. The chart above shows that the wind increased to more than 12 mph around 11 a.m., but actually became consistently more than 12 mph around 2 p.m.
I also did research on players who became more or less effective when the wind picked up. When the wind speeds rise, I found that score averages also rise regardless of the player, but I wanted to check out the players who were the least affected by the wind and the players that were most affected by the wind and see what they had in common.
Some of the best wind players include:
- Stuart Appleby
- Brian Harman
- Chris Kirk
- Matt Jones
Some of the worst wind players include:
- John Daly
- Keegan Bradley
- Bill Haas
- Hunter Mahan
While there were some very good wind players who grew up in windy areas like Texas, Scotland or Australia, there were also plenty of poor wind players from those areas as well. That tells me that growing up in a windy area does not guarantee that a golfer will be effective in the wind. There were main areas of the game that the good wind players had in common, however, which were good play from 75-to-125 yards and with short game shots around the green.
My conclusions to those findings is that the wind makes it more difficult for golfers to find the green in regulation, and therefore golfers need to be able to get up and down with more regularity. It is certainly worth noting that big winds can take bad shots, specifically bad tee shots, and push them farther offline. That creates more third or fourth shots from 75-to-125 yards.
No. 2: Putting
There is the theory that it is more difficult to make putts later in the day because of the spike marks and foot imprints.
I did not know if that theory had any merit, so I started looking at the scoring averages of individual players in the early and late rounds over the years. I was most interested in the players who saw the largest regression from the early round scoring average to the late round scoring average and vice versa.
What I found was that the players who had the largest regression in the early rounds usually tend to struggle in three areas of the game:
- Approach shots from 175-to-225 yards
- Shots from 250-to-275 yards (most likely 3-wood play)
- Par-4 Scoring Average
This indicates that golfers who tee off in the morning are playing the course on an even playing field because on Tour, shots from 175-to-225 yards have the largest correlation to success of any individual part of the game. And par-4 scoring averages correlates much more strongly to success on Tour than par-3 or par-5 scoring average. I am not sure what the shots from 250-to-275 yards indicate at this time.
The players with the largest regression in the late rounds, however, tend to struggle in these four very opposite parts of the game:
- Putting from 3-to-10 feet
- 3-Putt Percentage
- Strokes Gained – Putting
- Shots from 100-to-125 yards
The approach shots from 100-to-125 yards goes along with the research I have done on the better wind players on Tour. And the putting from 3-to-10 feet and 3-putt percentage indicates that the theory that you will make less putts in the afternoon does have some merit to it.
One of the other things my research has shown is that the golfers who rank the best in Strokes Gained – Putting tend to gain the most strokes on the more difficult greens like Pebble Beach and Riviera. Therefore, it does not surprise me that players who rank poorly in Strokes Gained – Putting would struggle more in the afternoon because the green conditions are more difficult.
Here’s some bullet points of what I think the average player can learn from my study:
- You’re likely to shoot lower scores early in the morning, so do not be afraid to be aggressive in going after some flags and hitting driver instead of laying up.
- If you have an afternoon tee time, check to see what the wind speed is like. If it is more than 12 mph, you may want to put a little extra time on hitting wedge shots and short game shots around the green before you tee off.
- If you have an afternoon tee time, you may want to spend a little more time on the practice green to better help adjust to the worsened green conditions.
As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.
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Cecilia
Aug 30, 2014 at 3:33 pm
HT
leftright
Aug 29, 2014 at 8:40 am
I don’t like to dew sweep and want no part of the golf course early. I also cannot get loose when I play early, especially if it’s cold. I’ll keep my mid-day tee times. Only play early if you have to.
Speaking of statisticians, I work with a guy who is a Bio-Statistics PhD and he wrote a couple of baseball books. He is really into baseball and knows a lot about the players and obviously their stats. His book says Tony Gwynn (recently died of cancer) was the best hitter when he gathered all his data and crunched it. I’m not trying to start a debate but I thought Rich might chime in on this if he is familiar with Dr Schell.
Scooter McGavin
Aug 29, 2014 at 7:12 am
I like how my questions get ignored or not published, when I ask about the margin of error with these numbers. Probably because the .163 strokes difference between early and late rounds lies within the margin of error, which means there is literally no story here. As a “statistician” the author would know this, and was obviously trying to create a story from nothing.
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DT
Aug 27, 2014 at 11:53 am
What % of amateurs actually hit the range before there round at all, never mind before an early round? Thousands of rounds of data and the best difference is just over 2 tenths of a stroke.
The margin is so slim for the PGA tour, that’s after a proper warm up and stretch. Amateurs are lose by the third or fourth hole, move often then not starting with bogeys, doubles or worse.
Rich
Aug 27, 2014 at 8:37 am
Really? So we’re talking about a quarter of a shot at worst right? Over analyse much! Keep reading your articles to see if one might be worth it but still haven’t found one. Hit the ball, walk, find it, hit it again. It’s that simple.
John
Aug 27, 2014 at 1:03 am
Ok, it’s time a senior weighed in here. I’m 58, single digit capper in pretty decent shape. I swim and hike. However, the difference in my creaky body between 7am and 10am is significant. These days the later in the day I play, the better I play. My body just feels better with a few hours to oil up.
MHendon
Aug 28, 2014 at 4:37 pm
Same here johnny boy.
MHendon
Aug 27, 2014 at 12:51 am
Yeah I’m sure early is better for most people but not me. It’s hard to play well when you’re still asleep. lol
larrybud
Aug 26, 2014 at 2:22 pm
A couple of things were left out:
1) Greens are probably more receptive on average in the morning before the heat of the day starts to bake them out
2) If these stats include Sunday rounds, the pressure of a later tee time probably has some influence.
It’d be interesting to see stats just for thursday and friday.
GermanBallHunter
Aug 26, 2014 at 10:42 am
The reason why I play better in the morning compared to later in the afternoon is simply because my mind is fresh and less distructed from the day. In the morning I weak up and am totally focused on my game. I head with my coffee straight to the range, hit some balls and I am ready to tee off.
Late tee times usually means that I was working or did my weekend shoppings before.
Captain Oblivious
Aug 26, 2014 at 9:45 am
From Dave Pelz:
“What is the lumpy doughnut?
(Fig – pages 33,35) The lumpy doughnut is the congregation of footprints within a radius of 6 feet from the hole. The last 12 inches is almost footprint free and form the doughnut’s hole. This creates a volcanic like entrance ramp that can have significant impact on a ball’s line relative to its speed. The average 500+ footprints a foursome makes in the green take up to 2 hours to spring back up to normal shape. Fresh footprints are to the golf ball like a curb is to a pedestrian crossing the street… in other words, your ball can “trip” on its way to the hole. ”
It amazes me how well the final groups do on the pro tours. They area at quite a disadvantage, IMO.
Nigel
Aug 26, 2014 at 9:29 am
As someone who almost exclusively plays pre-8am rounds, I feel that there is a serious third factor: pace of play. I realize that it is possible to have a reasonable pace of play later in the day, but nothing gets me in a good groove like knowing that there is no one (or very few people) in front of me, and that I can play at my own (relatively quick) pace. I usually play my best golf when I can get around in 3.5 hours or less.
Dave C
Aug 26, 2014 at 1:23 pm
TOTALLY AGREE! At least a point for us amateurs.
Nick
Aug 26, 2014 at 8:59 am
While I will say that greens are better when freshly mowed and not chewed up by spikes, the truth is the scoring average is better in earlier tee times because the players are better, not just the conditions. Players that tee off early usually have regular tee times and therefore are regular players, as opposed to say a guy playing his first round in 6 months. That guy usually isn’t in the 7:05 group. Not saying you won’t find lots of good sticks later, but I think, the averages favor the early birds. I bet the statistical significance of the scoring average would evaporate if controlled for handicap of player.
Captain Oblivious
Aug 26, 2014 at 9:57 am
How can you say “the statistical significance of the scoring average would disappear” when his study was conducted with the very best golfers on the planet?
I rarely play early morning because I prefer to walk the course. However, when I do, I notice a favorable difference partly due to less wind, but mainly to the better condition of the greens. In the afternoon I have to deal with far more unrepaired ball marks, (which are much more easily repaired immediately than 2 hours later by me), many more scuff marks where some people cannot find the energy to pick up their feet when they walk and many, many more footprints.
Early
Aug 26, 2014 at 12:43 am
“you may want to put a little extra time on hitting wedge shots and short game shots around the green before you tee off.”
How about practicing to hit worm-burner bullets à la Lee Trevino so that it gets under the wind and rolls for miles, and also thinking about may be replacing the high-launching clubs with lower launching ones?
“struggle more in the afternoon because the green conditions are more difficult.”
How about the fact that pressure also has a lot to do with it, and not just green conditions?
I don’t see anybody looking at the stats of the guys at the bottom 1/3 of the leaderboard on the 2nd day, as they are about to get cut and go home. Telling me they don’t count? The stats are skewed if you don’t count them in
Richie Hunt
Aug 26, 2014 at 9:11 am
On Thursday and Friday, everybody gets an early or late tee time on Tour regardless of score. So, if you tee off late on Thursday and take the lead after that day, you have an early tee time on Friday regardless of your position.
I actually checked the late vs. early tee times for round 1 vs. round 2 vs. round 3 vs. round 4 and the stats were nearly identical. So for the sake of brevity, I just used the total early vs. late round data.
Scooter McGavin
Aug 26, 2014 at 11:39 pm
What is the margin of error for late vs early round averages?
Early
Aug 26, 2014 at 12:38 am
Please lets not compare the Tour stats to our, menial, public-course type stats, hmmmm? Because they don’t relate.
Richie Hunt
Aug 26, 2014 at 9:13 am
So, are you saying that the green conditions do not get worse and the wind will not pick up later in the day?
Driving range closed
Aug 26, 2014 at 9:23 am
No, the difference being that public courses don’t usually have the driving range open an hour before the first tee time !
paul
Aug 25, 2014 at 11:42 pm
For me the difference can be several strokes. I love playing at 6am and being done before its hot out. Greens are slowed down and putting is much easier. I suck on fast greens cause I am to aggressive putting.
Paul Christianson
Aug 25, 2014 at 10:48 pm
Good stuff. I’d be interested to see the results of just the first two rounds of tournament play. This would allow us to control for more variables and ensure that we are taking a proper sample. Once the cut is made, some more variables come into play that are harder to control for. Is it possible to just measure the 1st and 2nd rounds?
Richie Hunt
Aug 26, 2014 at 9:15 am
I looked at the data for each of the rounds and it’s very similar across the board. So, I just used the total round data for the sake of brevity.
Scooter McGavin
Aug 26, 2014 at 11:40 pm
What is the margin of error for late vs early round averages?
TR1PTIK
Aug 25, 2014 at 10:36 pm
I prefer early tee times when I can get them – 7am if I can, but definitely before 9. I’ve found that I feel more comfortable in the mornings and tend to relax a little more because the temps are cooler, and unless it’s just nasty the scenery and lighting conditions seem to be better in the mornings which helps me stay positive. It’s not that I can’t score well later in the day, but it definitely requires more effort.
Joe Calcio
Aug 25, 2014 at 9:21 pm
Great article and research Rich. Very interesting.
I’d be curious if you looked at whether the results hold up when only looking at Thurs/Fri rounds pre-cut?
Part of me wonders if pressure of trying hold a lead or move up the board on Sat/Sun has any impact. But these are the pros, right? They don’t feel pressure!
Jimmy Jimmy
Aug 27, 2014 at 5:41 pm
I wonder if the difference is even more than just a tenth of a shot. If Saturday and Sunday are included in the figures above, then the leaders (presumably playing better golf cause they’re in the lead) go out at the end of the day while those playing more poorly go out earlier. The guys that aren’t playing as good are being given a boost, resulting in better scores than the leaders.
Martin
Aug 25, 2014 at 8:59 pm
It’s not better for me, I live in the north and am not a good enough putter to putt on greens covered in dew for 7 holes the 2 holes while it burns off and then a third speed when they are dry.
I can count on one hand the number of really great rounds I have played before 9:00 AM.
My preference is the crack of 10:00.
Kristian
Aug 25, 2014 at 7:15 pm
For me, early tee times often have me playing slightly worse than daytime rounds purely for the fact that I get to short-warmup jitters. During the day, I’m awake, fed, and feeling energized. In the morning, I usually feel a bit tired, I’ve not always eaten a full meal, and I don’t always have time to really warm up. That difference usually results in me standing over the ball on the first few holes with an iron or a wedge in my hand having a n inner dialogue with myself about not making a mis-hit.
Happyday_J
Aug 25, 2014 at 8:17 pm
Adam Scott had a similar problem and took the advice from a veteran tour player, always wake up 3 hours before your tee time.
I do the same, and if it is a tournament, I will work out and go for a run before hand. That way, my blood has been pumping, I’ve loosened up from my sleep and when I get the range an hour before, I am ready to start warming up and preparing for the round of golf. Allowing to be in attacking mode the first few holes and not be cautious b.c I am not awake.
Can make for early 4 am wake up calls, but hey, my motto, we all have plenty of time to sleep when we are dead, dont waste time while we are alive ;).
Early
Aug 26, 2014 at 12:36 am
HappydayJ:
Yeah? Have you ever played the first tee time of the morning on a public course? The driving range ain’t open, man. it’s usually still dark as you tee the ball up. So how do you expect to “warm up”???
Happyday_J
Aug 26, 2014 at 12:28 pm
I have hit balls in the dark on numerous occasions, a warm up is a warm up, get the motion of the swing down, loosen up and make solid contact. Believe it or not, based on how you hit it, you can get a good idea where its going, shape and trajectory.
Happyday_J
Aug 26, 2014 at 12:29 pm
Sorry, missed the point of the range not being open, in that case, I have a couple spare balls in the bag that are hit-aways, and go to the range and hit them. There is always a way.
Scooter McGavin
Aug 25, 2014 at 5:20 pm
For the Late vs. Early round averages, what is the margin of error?