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Opinion & Analysis

Who are the favorites to win the FedEx Cup at East Lake?

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We have one event left in the 2013-2014 PGA Tour season, and the eighth FedEx Cup champion will be crowned by week’s end.

Twenty-nine players (Dustin Johnson isn’t competing) will vie for the FedEx Cup crown at East Lake, but who should we install as the few favorites to accomplish the feat?

Well, back in its earliest iterations, the FedEx Cup Playoffs heavily favored those at the top of the standings going into the last event.

A points reset prior to the Tour Championship was implemented in 2009, and it’s done the job of allowing players from farther back to capture the grand prize. While the 2009, 2012 and 2013 FedEx Cup champions were all in the top-five before East Lake, winner Jim Furyk was a measly 11th with one event to play in 2010. And Bill Haas jumped from 25th to 1st in the standings with his defining win in the 2012 finale.

This is to say that installing favorites just by copying and pasting the current top-five in the standings is probably unwise. A higher initial place definitely helps, but with the points reset, performance at East Lake becomes monumentally important.

Combining that with other factors, we’ve discovered the five most likely candidates for the 2014 Playoffs crown (current FedEx Cup standing in parentheses):

Billy Horschel (2)

BillyHorschel

Apologies here to FedEx Cup leader Chris Kirk (who really is a much better player than people think), but among the top in the standings, I like Horschel’s chances at the crown more.

Why?

The East Lake course itself isn’t much of a factor in this case. In recent times, the most important components to success on the layout have been great driving and short game play (around the green). Of the eight winners and runners-up since 2010, six of them have been extraordinary players off the tee. And from East Lake’s FedEx Cup inception in 2007, every single winner possessed a well-above average to elite short game, until Henrik Stenson last year.

Horschel is a fantastic driver of the golf ball, but remains one of the game’s most putrid short game artists. Kirk has never gotten much from his driving, but he’s historically owned a fabulous short game.

So it comes down to a different factor: recent form. Yes, Kirk won two weeks ago at the Deutsche Bank Championship, but followed it up with a T36 at the BMW Championship. After his stellar opening months of 2013-2014, Kirk’s season has been rather stagnant, with the win at TPC Boston more of an outlier than anything.

Horschel has struggled mightily this season, but his win at Cherry Hills appears less fluky, as he was potentially a mishit six-iron away from winning the week before.

The last time Horschel was playing this well, he went on a four-week tear, placing top-10 in all events and producing a victory and two other near wins.

Yes a shallow past history, but there is precedent and I think it manifests itself this week. Horschel’s great play should continue, and a high finish might be enough to get him the crown.

Rory McIlroy (4)

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OK, well duh on this one. McIlroy is easily the game’s best player right now, which means that he’s most likely to dominate a field in any given week.

Really the only reason I wouldn’t pick McIlroy would be every other factor conspiring against him.

And that is not the case.

He’s actually an OK short game player, and we don’t have to tell you just how good he is with the big dog in his hands. East Lake, then, actually profiles pretty well for him.

Yes, McIlroy is not in his summer form, but that level of golf was ridiculous. Even in his reduced fall state, McIlroy is just fine. Six of his last 11 rounds have been in the 60s and if it wasn’t for an awful opening day at the Barclays, he would have all top-10 finishes in the 2014 Playoffs.

Really there are a lot of good signs for McIlroy, and add that to his current standing and immense talent, there’s no way a favorites list omits him.

Jim Furyk (7)

JimFuryk

Whatever his Sunday struggles—and zero victories in his last seven 54-hole leads is something to behold—the 44-year-old continues to match his game with some of the best.

Lost in all of the hoopla over Furyk’s final-round foibles is the fact that the ageless American has produced an extraordinary 2014. In 20 events, Furyk has top-tenned in half of them, garnered three runner-up finishes and raked in more than $5 million.

He’s possibly been the best golfer on the planet without a win this year.

Ah yes, the specter of his victory drought, winless since 2010, looms large. Furyk can mathematically win the FedEx Cup with a Tour Championship runner-up; a second-place showing pushes him to 2,700 points, just 60 short of Haas’ total in 2011.

But, more than likely, that won’t be enough. Furyk will have to win.

Despite his proclivity for the silver medal of late, the 44-year-old can be victorious at East Lake. For one, he has done it before, in 2010 when he captured the FedEx Cup crown as well. His results at the Tour Championship since have been rather middling, but the course sets up nicely for his excellent driving and premier short-game play.

Yeah, yeah, I get it 0-for-7 of late. Streaks like this can be broken at any time though, especially from a player who’s historically been a decent closer aside from this relatively small sample in his decades-long career. (And bad luck is a factor too. As Jason Sobel notes, four of these seven failures occurred even with a sub-70 final round. You can’t blame Furyk for running into buzzsaws like Tim Clark.)

Furyk has silently been a force this year. Expect him to contend this week, and if he’s close on Sunday, there’s no guarantee that he wilts.

Matt Kuchar (8)

MattKuchar

You can only use logic so much in a sport that seems to pride itself in enraging prognosticators. That’s where Matt Kuchar steps in.

Really there isn’t that much pointing to Kuch as FedEx Cup Champion by Sunday evening. His all-around game allows him to contend almost anywhere but is not especially adept for East Lake. His record at the course backs that up—a single top-10 in four starts. And his form has been extremely stagnant following his whirlwind opening four months of 2014.

The forecast from the important factors is not sunny for Kuchar.

Sometimes though, that doesn’t matter, as Haas proved in 2011. Kuchar tends not to go too long without a high-level performance (whether that be a win or a close call), and we’re now almost five months removed from his last one of those.

He’s due, then.

Kuchar has also started to make it a habit of winning important events that aren’t majors. Maybe the Tour Championship is the next one on that list, with the FedEx Cup winner’s haul to boot.

Call it a hunch, or outright conjecture, whatever. The 2014 finale might signal the further rise of Kuuuuuuuch.

Sergio Garcia (13)

SergioGarcia

You can look at Garcia’s 2014 in two ways.

In one sense, he’s played arguably some of the best golf of his career. The Spaniard is second in the PGA Tour’s Strokes Gained: Total category, and the 34-year-old has put that insane form toward five TOP-THREES and nine top-tens in 15 PGA Tour starts.

And when you add his half-dozen totals from the European Tour, you can tack on two more top-threes, including a victory.

On the other hand, nobody (not even Jim Furyk) has extracted less from his play than Garcia. Every player in the top-seven of Strokes Gained: Total has at least one PGA Tour win this season—except Garcia. You thought Jim Furyk’s three runner-ups in 2014 were tough to swallow? Including his European Tour data, Garcia has four, and two more third place finishes to add to the pile.

Even more sadly, Garcia played well enough to win the Open Championship and the World Golf Championship at Firestone only to run into Rory McIlroy’s world-beater persona.

OK, this is starting to sound like a woe-is-me tale Garcia was famous for in the past. I do have a point.

Garcia’s form has been consistently phenomenal in 2014. His first two Playoff performances were underwhelming, but he got back on track with a T4 at Cherry Hills.

A poor showing at East Lake seems improbable at this point. A putrid result there would mean three such performances in four starts, which is extremely out of character for 2014 Sergio Garcia.

We can pretty confidently predict that Garcia will be in the thick of it on Sunday. With the Spaniard’s numerous close calls less a series of choke jobs and more the work of luck and circumstance, the law of averages suggests that Garcia’s next foray near the top of the leaderboard will net him a victory.

And with a win at the Tour Championship, Garcia might need a little help, but he would have a great shot at the FedEx Cup Trophy.

Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Golfraven

    Sep 9, 2014 at 4:13 pm

    The winner takes it all (on last day). No wonder Rory is not too bothered winning recent events and chooses to practice his putting during last weekend’s rounds – four putting etc. I bet someone gave him this challenge to make a mickey out of short distance putts to gaine some confidence for the finals. You nailed it Rory and good luck.
    May the odds be ever in your favor!

  2. NZTYN8

    Sep 9, 2014 at 2:49 pm

    No Fowler love?

    • Christosterone

      Sep 9, 2014 at 3:47 pm

      Fowler has a good year going but he is not a great closer.
      He’s not even a good closer.
      Very fine working pro golfer but 1 win is hard to put any stock in.

      • Rich

        Sep 10, 2014 at 7:11 am

        And Furyk and Kuchar are? Kuchar may have one this season but should have one at least 2 others and Furyk hasn’t won since 2010 and also should have at least one win this year and they got a mention. And Sergio hasn’t exactly run away with his opportunities this year either. I think NZTYN8 makes a good point.

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Opinion & Analysis

Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers

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PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.

In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.

Check out the full Q&A below.

Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?

Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.

I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.

Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?

Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.

Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.

Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?

Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.

In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.

Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?

Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.

Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?

Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.

Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.

Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?

Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.

The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.

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Club Junkie

A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast

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In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.

We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.

To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.

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Opinion & Analysis

From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50

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This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?

As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.

I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.

Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.

I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.

It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.

So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.

1. Think About What You Want

Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.

Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.

For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.

You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.

The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.

But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.

None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.

2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work

One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.

You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.

You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.

I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.

Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.

I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.

3. Get Custom Fit

If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.

If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.

Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.

It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.

Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.

I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.

So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.

Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.

Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.

I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.

4. Distance and Strategy Matter

There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.

I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.

Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being

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