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Why Dustin Johnson’s victory doesn’t really change anything yet

Published

10 years ago

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For the first time since August — or maybe since his last victory? — Dustin Johnson is a feel-good story.

The 30-year-old captured the WGC-Cadillac Championship on Sunday for his ninth career PGA Tour win, his best victory to date (in his words).

The stories wrote themselves: A new perspective on life helped Johnson stave off his competition and reach for the Doral crown. The things he thought were important don’t matter much anymore with his son, Tatum, now in tow. And the American knew his game was good, but realized there was something missing to make him great.

All of these spoke convincingly to a better Dustin Johnson, the person. He has better priorities, he’s more mature and his dedication level has skyrocketed.

It would be easy to surmise that with this big win and his newfound peace, Johnson is ready to reach a new level and finally start fulfilling the immense outside potential placed on him. And that progression has already jibbed with some writers‘ thoughts.

But it is a trap. We have no new evidence that Johnson will take that long-awaited next step.

Yes, the American’s victory at Doral is impressive, and one of his best regardless of the heightened context his return from a six-month absence brings.

We’re looking for proof, though, that Johnson is set to perform at a higher level than ever before, and his play thus far in 2015, including this win, only resembles his professional record from the past.

The victory this week wasn’t his first WGC, as Johnson picked up his first department at the WGC-HSBC Champions 16 months ago in China. And the location outside the U.S. did not mean a weaker-than-usual WGC field. Some other names who finished among the top-20 for the week included Ian Poulter, Sergio Garcia, Rory McIlroy, Martin Kaymer, Bubba Watson, Keegan Bradley, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Louis Oosthuizen and Jordan Spieth.

Johnson has also captured two wins in FedEx Cup events during his career, triumphs at least in the same ballpark as a WGC win, and maybe even on par in certain contexts.

This week’s victory is familiar, then. And his other high finishes in the early season (a T4 at Pebble Beach and a runner-up playoff loss at Riviera) also hold the stench of the old routine.

As I’ve noted before, despite his previous off-course unpredictably, Johnson is exceedingly consistent in showing up week to week. The 30-year-old’s made cut rate from 2009-2014 was a robust 82 percent, and his average top-10s and top-25s per year came to 6.7 and 10.2 in that span, both quite respectable for a player on the verge of elite status.

The high finishes haven’t particularly eluded Johnson like they did for say, pre-2014 Bubba Watson, which makes this recent set an indicator of past habits rather than future greatness.

Still, for Johnson to take this next step, he needs to increase those win and top-10 totals, producing the multiple-victory, double-digit top-10 campaigns that are par for the course for the game’s best players. Johnson’s early performance in 2015 has him on pace to do so. A win this early makes another one this season appear likely, and his three top-10s, actually three top-fives, in five starts sets him on a track for somewhere around a dozen top-10s for the season based on his rough average of 20 starts per year.

So we have some proof of a future rise in performance!…Or not really.

Five events is a small sample size that can easily evaporate in the context of a larger season. Just last year, Johnson was actually far hotter than he has been in the first months of 2015. In his first six events of the 2013-2014 wraparound, these were Johnson’s results: 1st, T-6th, T-2nd, 2nd, T-33rd and T-4th.

That would be four top-fives and five top-10s in six events, an insanely hot stretch that obliterates what the 30-year-old has accomplished on course in 2015 so far.

How did that season turn out?

Johnson finished the campaign with seven top-10s and 10 top-25s, nudging as closely as possible to his career averages (he did play only 17 events, but that’s only slightly below his norm).

The reports of Johnson’s new-found work ethic off the course is impressive, 60-plus straight days of workouts that have led to 12 pounds lost overall while gaining 10 in muscle.

Greater effort doesn’t ensure better results, though. And there’s no guarantee yet that the more dedicated Johnson is a long-term mainstay rather than a passing fad.

These first months of 2015 have proven that Johnson’s game won’t dip after an extended absence. But I have yet to see any sign that a new, higher-caliber Johnson has emerged (professionally).

Until he wins multiple big events in a season or maintains a hot streak for more than a few months, there are no signs that Johnson will rise from his quasi-elite status into one of the world’s few best.

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Kevin's fascination with the game goes back as long as he can remember. He has written about the sport on the junior, college and professional levels and hopes to cover its proceedings in some capacity for as long as possible. His main area of expertise is the PGA Tour, which is his primary focus for GolfWRX. Kevin is currently a student at Northwestern University, but he will be out into the workforce soon enough. You can find his golf tidbits and other sports-related babble on Twitter @KevinCasey19. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: September 2014

26 Comments

26 Comments

  1. Hmmmmmm

    Mar 19, 2015 at 8:49 am

    i think there should be an article about his habit that he got into crap with. Now he is off the Charlie he has had a big W. The real reason for his layoff.

    Reply Report comment

  2. Deez

    Mar 15, 2015 at 11:47 pm

    This article is pathetic. It’s hard to succeed on any level. Life and personal obstacles get in the way which make achievement challenging and rewarding. For one to put negativity into his victory is sad. Who is the editor who allowed this article to be published? #buschleague

    Reply Report comment

  3. Wow.

    Mar 15, 2015 at 11:43 am

    Wow, you guys seem angry. I can’t say that I am familiar with this writer’s pieces, but this article, to me, seems to be a ‘Whoa, hold your horses, media’, counterpiece that is backed up by facts.

    I, personally, found it informative. It starts off acknowledging Dustin’s recent achievement (WGC-Cadillac win) and then proceeds to confirm that Dustin Johnson is highly talented and has a routine history of achievement, but that he hasn’t taken the next level ‘step’, required to join the ranks of elite golfers. It doesn’t assert that D.J. won’t take the next step, just that, as of the time of the article, it hasn’t happened quite yet…

    I’m not seeing where all the hate is coming from, except possible bias from other previous pieces that Kevin Casey may have written that pissed you guys off.

    Reply Report comment

  4. Cwolf

    Mar 14, 2015 at 6:35 pm

    The negativity on here is pathetic.
    Great win for DJ. He is an amazing talent and I am happy to see him back and be successful so soon.

    Reply Report comment

  5. kevin

    Mar 13, 2015 at 5:52 pm

    Had a chance to meet DJ prior to his Wednesday practice round and he was great with fans, especially my 5 month old daughter making her first PGA event visit.

    As golf fans, should we not celebrate the fact that the start to this season has produced great moments by a few up and coming stars (Koepka) and a resurgence of those having had layoffs (Johnson)? Prior to stating Johnson’s win means nothing, shouldn’t we understand what he is trying to accomplish? If his goal is to earn a living and provide for his family – goal accomplished. If his goal is to move up the world ranking points – goal accomplished. If his goal is to win a high profile tournament against the world’s best – goal accomplished. If he failed to meet the expectations of the writer, would we assume DJ cared?

    I’m fairly sure any of us would trade our reality to the one facing Johnson and I’m sure on that given Sunday, every other player in the field (Adam Scott, Luke Donald, Phil, etc)…. would have traded their reality for Johnson’s too. In my opinion, that would make the win fairly meaningful.

    Reply Report comment

  6. Nick

    Mar 13, 2015 at 3:15 pm

    this win changes a lot, it shows dusty can win without blow, bright future ahead for the true next star of american golf!

    Reply Report comment

  7. Kyle

    Mar 12, 2015 at 7:44 pm

    I really gotta say, I’m disappointed with all the general negativity that is developing on this site. Who are you to attempt to discredit a victory from a PGA pro? No matter who it is.. Who cares if it “doesn’t change anything yet”. Its still a victory at a WGC.

    Reply Report comment

    • Skip

      Mar 12, 2015 at 9:39 pm

      yeah, what kind of article is this. Give the man credit for some hard work and showing responsiblililty.

      Reply Report comment

  8. Progolfer

    Mar 12, 2015 at 5:37 pm

    You’re right, it doesn’t change anything– not even the media from leaving him alone.

    Reply Report comment

  9. 8thehardway

    Mar 12, 2015 at 4:21 pm

    Dustin’s victory changes things that matter. It gives family and friends more reason to admire him, fans more reasons to cheer, competitors more reason to worry and strengthens relationships with sponsors, securing his family’s future. Wish I could do that in six months.

    Reply Report comment

  10. Mlecuni

    Mar 12, 2015 at 2:25 pm

    Why when i saw the title of this article i knew immediatly who was the writer ?
    No way, the autor is a golf fan and this is not his first attempt, anyone remember the article “Why disliking Rickie Fowler as a person needs to stop” ?.
    Please next time you have no inspiration, at least put your article in the buzzroll.

    This website deserves better articles !

    Reply Report comment

  11. Michael

    Mar 12, 2015 at 1:29 pm

    Hey bud, finish your degree before you start pretending that you’re an expert on anything.

    Reply Report comment

  12. Ant Lockyer

    Mar 12, 2015 at 12:21 pm

    This article is beyond shank, missed the ball completely.

    Reply Report comment

  13. Mike

    Mar 12, 2015 at 9:53 am

    As it appears, this author will never give DJ the respect for his game that he deserves unless he wins every tournament he enters. And by the facts that were given in regard to his cuts made and high finishes you actually made MORE of a case for him being an elite player, so in return this article appears contradictory.

    Reply Report comment

  14. TR1PTIK

    Mar 12, 2015 at 9:35 am

    Have to agree with everyone else who’s commented thus far. For anyone to come off a 6-month leave of absence and play the way Dustin has is impressive. All we hear from Tiger is, “I just need more reps” and whatever other BS story he wants to sell. Not to make it sound like I hate Tiger or something because I’d really love nothing more than to see him win again, but the excuses he comes up with for poor play are ridiculous! Anyway, DJ has done a great job since his return to the tour and I’d like to see any other pro do the same. The only one that stood a chance was Tiger in his prime, but that Tiger is long gone now…

    Reply Report comment

  15. Greg V

    Mar 12, 2015 at 9:12 am

    unpredictability.

    Reply Report comment

  16. Hellstorm

    Mar 11, 2015 at 10:12 pm

    I’d like to be that inconsistent. The one thing that is consistent is how terrible this article is throughout. Last year, 7 top 10’s…..that’s pretty elite. That is an entire career for most guys. What he has done this year is elite and most guys would like to have that over a career. Do you even follow golf?

    Reply Report comment

    • Dave

      Mar 14, 2015 at 9:41 pm

      According to his bio, for as long as he can remember.

      Reply Report comment

  17. TinCup

    Mar 11, 2015 at 9:25 pm

    Article reads like one giant troll…no class…why can’t DJ just be a great player who we respect for a recent win. No need to place the hopes and dreams of the world’s former Tiger fans on every up-and-comer out there. Feels like you are trying to create a story where there isn’t one.

    Reply Report comment

  18. RadioActive

    Mar 11, 2015 at 1:34 pm

    Snark much?

    Reply Report comment

  19. Cap

    Mar 11, 2015 at 11:40 am

    “This week’s victory is familiar, then. And his other high finishes in the early season (a T4 at Pebble Beach and a runner-up playoff loss at Riviera) also hold the stench of the old routine.”

    Are you reading this stuff back to yourself? What kind of start were you looking for after a six month layoff?

    The only stench I smell is from rotten premise of this article.

    Reply Report comment

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