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Opinion & Analysis

Why these 10 PGA Tour stars are underperforming in 2016

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As we approach the U.S. Open and Summer Olympics — where golf will be part of the competition — along with the Ryder Cup this fall, I decided to look at what was going on with some of the more popular players on Tour who are not quite meeting fan expectations. The following rankings are based out of 196 players.

Jordan Spieth

Jordan_Spieth_2016_stats

Spieth has one victory on the PGA Tour this season, and is currently sixth on the Money List. However, his collapse at the Masters, missed cut at The Players Championship and struggle on Sunday at the Byron Nelson has caused some concern from the fans. His driving is generally excellent, but his iron play has dropped off dramatically. He was once one of the top-5 iron players on Tour, and now he’s only a little better than average.

Spieth currently ranks 86th on shots from the fairway/tee box from 75-225 yards, where he was ranked 12th in that category last season.

Justin Rose

Justin_Rose_2016_stats

Rose has recorded eight top-25 finishes in 11 starts, and ranks seventh in adjusted scoring average. He’s having a fine season, but he has not recorded a victory. The biggest issue for him is his putting. From a scoring perspective, he has been unable to make a lot of birdies on the par-4’s (102nd), which is a result of his below-average putting. His Green Zone performance is a little off, but that is not a major culprit, and he has typically been an excellent Green Zone performer. I expect that to improve as time goes along.

If Rose can start making some putts, the numbers project favorably toward him contending in the next three majors.

Henrik Stenson

Henrik_Stenson_2016_stats

Stenson recorded a third-place finish at Bay Hill and a second-place finish at Houston. After that, he finished 24th at the Masters and then missed his past two cuts. Overall, his ball striking has been great, but his short game and putting have hamstrung him.

He has been particularly awful on short game shots from 10-20 yards (191st), which is the most critical area for short game play. His putting from 3-5 feet has been excellent (4th), but he has struggled from outside of that range. He ranks 36th on Birdie Putts from 5-15 feet, while ranking 182nd on par-or-worse putts from 5-15 feet. That is typically a sign of a player that is hitting their putts too firmly. While his ball striking is top notch, at this point, he is not giving himself much of a chance if he misses a green in regulation because his short game and putting are killing him.

Gary Woodland

Gary_Woodland_2016_Stats

Woodland is a bit of a unique case, as he ranks 23rd in adjusted scoring average while ranking 89th in earnings. Typically, those rankings tend to match each other, especially for a player like Woodland who gets to play in large purse events.

What we have seen from Woodland is that he has only missed one cut in 16 events. That means he should have a low total adjusted scoring average, however, he has yet to record a top-10 finish. His best finish was a T13th at the Sony Open, and he has six top-25 finishes in total. So he has been good enough to finish right around 25th in an event, but not able to finish much higher than that.

Here’s a look at Woodland’s Scoring Average rankings by round:

Woodland_stats_2016_2

While most people would think Round 4 scoring average is more important, it’s actually the performance in Rounds 1 and 2 that matter much more in terms of Tour success. Furthermore, Round 4 scoring average typically falls in line with the player’s scoring average in Rounds 1-3 over time.

Woodland has also typically been a great Red Zone performer as well. So while he has not had the big finishes at this current time, the numbers project that he is likely to have some great finishes as we go into the summer. His Red Zone Play is likely to improve, and his performance in Round 4 should start to match his performances in Rounds 1-3.

Phil Mickelson

PhilMickelsonMickelson has had a great season, but the standards for him are so high that he’s expected to have won by now, and to minimize missed cuts. He has missed three of his past four cuts with no victories, but has four top-10 finishes.

His performance metrics have been excellent, but he has struggled to put each piece of the game together at the same time. Earlier in the year, he was driving the ball very well, but his iron play and putting were only above average. His short game play was a little below average. In the last few events, his iron play, short game and putting have been very good, but his driving has regressed. In his last event (The Players Championship), he finished last in driving effectiveness.

This is fairly common for players who are starting to rejuvenate their game like Phil has, however; they struggle to get all of the important pieces of the game to work at the same time. Therefore, the numbers point to Phil having great success and meeting fan expectations, soon.

Keegan Bradley

KeeganBradley

What stands out for Bradley is his struggles moving to the non-anchored putter. While that is certainly a major issue, a player of his length, driving skill and overall ballstriking skill should be performing much better on the Par-5s. Simply put, he can play a Par-5 more like a Par-4 compared to the average player in an event. And even with awful putting, that should translate to ranking far better than 158th in Par-5 Scoring Average.

I have him ranked 157th in Par-5 Aggressiveness. Par-5 Aggressiveness is an algorithm that determines how often the player should be going for par-5s in two shots based on the “Par-5 Go For It” percentages of each par-5 they have played, their distance off the tee, hit fairway percentage, performance from 225-275 yards and short game performance. For Bradley, his projected optimal Par-5 Go For It Percentage is at 68 percent and he has gone for par-5s in two shots only 58.9 percent of the time.

The good news is that this is the best Bradley has ever struck the ball with his irons in his career. Typically, he has been a very good Red Zone player (175-225 yards), but has struggled from the Green Zone (75-125 yards) and the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards). If he can straighten out his putting and get near the average on Tour in Putts Gained, he would be projected to get into contention immediately. But, he may be missing out on those victories if he does not become more aggressive on the Par-5s.

Hunter Mahan

HunterMahan

The numbers have projected Mahan’s regression for quite some time. He simply has struggled too much from the Red Zone (175-225 yards) for too long to continue to be successful on Tour. Eventually, his driving started to regress, as well as his Yellow Zone play (125-175 yards).

Good Red-Zone performers tend to do a good job at avoiding bogeys and those big numbers that kill a round of golf. Good Yellow-Zone performers tend to make more birdies on the Par-4s, because they are hitting those approach shots closer to the makeable putt range. For a while, Mahan was countering his poor Red-Zone play with great Yellow Zone play. He no longer does that, hence his struggles this season.

It’s funny because most people tend to think that Mahan was never quite an upper echelon player (top-5 in the world) because of his putting and short game. That’s never been the case, though. He has struggled severely with his Red Zone Play, and now his Yellow Zone play and driving are following suit.

Ian Poulter 

IanPoulter

Poulter’s metrics may boost the hopes of U.S. Ryder Cup fans, as he has been a ferocious competitor for the European Ryder Cup team… but I wouldn’t count the chickens before they hatch. He is still a great short-game performer, which is the one area that has produced the best Ryder Cup players over the years. He is also a strong performer from the Red Zone, which is another key area in the Ryder Cup, and his putting is better than average.

Obviously, Poulter’s Yellow- and Green-Zone play has regressed. He typically has been a good Yellow-Zone performer and an inconsistent Green-Zone performer. Therefore, I would not be surprised if he regains his Yellow Zone performance as the season goes along.

His driving has also played a role in his regression. His club speed has slowed down considerably, as he was at 111.95 mph in 2014 and is now at 109.67 mph. A drop in club speed of 2.3 mph is sizable by Tour standards. He also ranks 190th in Hit Fairway Bunker percentage. That helps explain his regression from the Yellow Zone, as he is getting a lot of those shots from the fairway bunkers.

Webb Simpson 

WebbSimpson

Simpson’s ranking in earnings is much lower than his adjusted-scoring-average ranking, due to the fact that he has only played in 10 events this season. And fans of Simpson should be more concerned with his adjusted scoring average than his earnings. Adjusted scoring average will serve as a better predictor for a player’s earnings and FedEx points at the end of the season.

The good news for Simpson is that he is striking the ball quite well, and his Short Game is sharp. However, like Keegan Bradley, he has struggled with the adjustment to the non-anchored putter. Some may say that it gives credence to the ban on anchored putters, but as far as belly putters go, we simply did not have enough data to determine its true effect on putting performance. And one could argue that after a rough season putting in 2015 (where he still used anchor putting in some events), Adam Scott has putted well this season, as he is currently 71st in Putts Gained.

Boo Weekley

BooWeekley

I think most fans of Boo would expect these type of metrics: great ball striking, poor short-game play and poor putting.

This season, Boo has had struggles from the Yellow Zone. He has never been a consistently great performer from 125-150 yards, but he has had some inexplicable struggles from 150-175 yards (175th). This has greatly hurt his ability to make birdies on the Par-4’s (158th) and has hurt his Par-3 Scoring Average (151st).

We are also seeing Boo’s club speed drop substantially. He is currently at 111.6 mph, and was at 113.4 mph last season. He was at 114.9 mph in 2012.

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Ronald Montesano

    May 30, 2016 at 11:40 am

    Was going to say “Family” metric is missing for Hunter Mahan. Has so much money, wife and child and says, why struggle? why majors? why not worry? give him five years of crap play, a new swing coach or two, and he’ll wake up one morning and ask who he once might have was been, then get to work.

  2. Nick

    May 28, 2016 at 6:52 pm

    “I’m not a big believer in stats.” Jezus.

  3. BIG STU

    May 28, 2016 at 4:42 am

    Good article there Rich very informative I do not get into stats that much but that was good reading

  4. Dave

    May 27, 2016 at 8:24 pm

    Who cares stats stats that’s all they are new breed out there ,these boys are done and if Jordan doesn’t get back to having fun and just hit it already …..well

  5. Jochen

    May 27, 2016 at 4:53 pm

    Is there any good article on the website defining all the terms – green zone, adjusted scoring average, driving effectiveness etc.?

  6. steve

    May 27, 2016 at 7:36 am

    Bradley, Poulter, Mahan and Simpson who expected anything from them? These guys stink. Mickelson on the other hand is 2nd in scoring, no matter how you try to spin it. Phil just needs to put 4 good rounds together

  7. Milo

    May 26, 2016 at 3:14 pm

    I’d say that Mickelson this year has been better than the last 5 years.

    • Milo

      May 27, 2016 at 11:52 pm

      Jordan Spieth definitely is gonna have a nice long career. Bryson Dechambeau for me is still undetermined but I’m rooting for him.

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Opinion & Analysis

Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers

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PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.

In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.

Check out the full Q&A below.

Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?

Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.

I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.

Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?

Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.

Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.

Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?

Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.

In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.

Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?

Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.

Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?

Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.

Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.

Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?

Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.

The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.

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Club Junkie

A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast

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In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.

We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.

To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.

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Opinion & Analysis

From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50

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This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?

As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.

I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.

Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.

I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.

It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.

So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.

1. Think About What You Want

Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.

Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.

For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.

You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.

The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.

But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.

None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.

2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work

One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.

You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.

You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.

I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.

Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.

I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.

3. Get Custom Fit

If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.

If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.

Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.

It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.

Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.

I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.

So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.

Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.

Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.

I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.

4. Distance and Strategy Matter

There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.

I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.

Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being

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