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Why these 10 PGA Tour stars are underperforming in 2016

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As we approach the U.S. Open and Summer Olympics — where golf will be part of the competition — along with the Ryder Cup this fall, I decided to look at what was going on with some of the more popular players on Tour who are not quite meeting fan expectations. The following rankings are based out of 196 players.

Jordan Spieth

Jordan_Spieth_2016_stats

Spieth has one victory on the PGA Tour this season, and is currently sixth on the Money List. However, his collapse at the Masters, missed cut at The Players Championship and struggle on Sunday at the Byron Nelson has caused some concern from the fans. His driving is generally excellent, but his iron play has dropped off dramatically. He was once one of the top-5 iron players on Tour, and now he’s only a little better than average.

Spieth currently ranks 86th on shots from the fairway/tee box from 75-225 yards, where he was ranked 12th in that category last season.

Justin Rose

Justin_Rose_2016_stats

Rose has recorded eight top-25 finishes in 11 starts, and ranks seventh in adjusted scoring average. He’s having a fine season, but he has not recorded a victory. The biggest issue for him is his putting. From a scoring perspective, he has been unable to make a lot of birdies on the par-4’s (102nd), which is a result of his below-average putting. His Green Zone performance is a little off, but that is not a major culprit, and he has typically been an excellent Green Zone performer. I expect that to improve as time goes along.

If Rose can start making some putts, the numbers project favorably toward him contending in the next three majors.

Henrik Stenson

Henrik_Stenson_2016_stats

Stenson recorded a third-place finish at Bay Hill and a second-place finish at Houston. After that, he finished 24th at the Masters and then missed his past two cuts. Overall, his ball striking has been great, but his short game and putting have hamstrung him.

He has been particularly awful on short game shots from 10-20 yards (191st), which is the most critical area for short game play. His putting from 3-5 feet has been excellent (4th), but he has struggled from outside of that range. He ranks 36th on Birdie Putts from 5-15 feet, while ranking 182nd on par-or-worse putts from 5-15 feet. That is typically a sign of a player that is hitting their putts too firmly. While his ball striking is top notch, at this point, he is not giving himself much of a chance if he misses a green in regulation because his short game and putting are killing him.

Gary Woodland

Gary_Woodland_2016_Stats

Woodland is a bit of a unique case, as he ranks 23rd in adjusted scoring average while ranking 89th in earnings. Typically, those rankings tend to match each other, especially for a player like Woodland who gets to play in large purse events.

What we have seen from Woodland is that he has only missed one cut in 16 events. That means he should have a low total adjusted scoring average, however, he has yet to record a top-10 finish. His best finish was a T13th at the Sony Open, and he has six top-25 finishes in total. So he has been good enough to finish right around 25th in an event, but not able to finish much higher than that.

Here’s a look at Woodland’s Scoring Average rankings by round:

Woodland_stats_2016_2

While most people would think Round 4 scoring average is more important, it’s actually the performance in Rounds 1 and 2 that matter much more in terms of Tour success. Furthermore, Round 4 scoring average typically falls in line with the player’s scoring average in Rounds 1-3 over time.

Woodland has also typically been a great Red Zone performer as well. So while he has not had the big finishes at this current time, the numbers project that he is likely to have some great finishes as we go into the summer. His Red Zone Play is likely to improve, and his performance in Round 4 should start to match his performances in Rounds 1-3.

Phil Mickelson

PhilMickelsonMickelson has had a great season, but the standards for him are so high that he’s expected to have won by now, and to minimize missed cuts. He has missed three of his past four cuts with no victories, but has four top-10 finishes.

His performance metrics have been excellent, but he has struggled to put each piece of the game together at the same time. Earlier in the year, he was driving the ball very well, but his iron play and putting were only above average. His short game play was a little below average. In the last few events, his iron play, short game and putting have been very good, but his driving has regressed. In his last event (The Players Championship), he finished last in driving effectiveness.

This is fairly common for players who are starting to rejuvenate their game like Phil has, however; they struggle to get all of the important pieces of the game to work at the same time. Therefore, the numbers point to Phil having great success and meeting fan expectations, soon.

Keegan Bradley

KeeganBradley

What stands out for Bradley is his struggles moving to the non-anchored putter. While that is certainly a major issue, a player of his length, driving skill and overall ballstriking skill should be performing much better on the Par-5s. Simply put, he can play a Par-5 more like a Par-4 compared to the average player in an event. And even with awful putting, that should translate to ranking far better than 158th in Par-5 Scoring Average.

I have him ranked 157th in Par-5 Aggressiveness. Par-5 Aggressiveness is an algorithm that determines how often the player should be going for par-5s in two shots based on the “Par-5 Go For It” percentages of each par-5 they have played, their distance off the tee, hit fairway percentage, performance from 225-275 yards and short game performance. For Bradley, his projected optimal Par-5 Go For It Percentage is at 68 percent and he has gone for par-5s in two shots only 58.9 percent of the time.

The good news is that this is the best Bradley has ever struck the ball with his irons in his career. Typically, he has been a very good Red Zone player (175-225 yards), but has struggled from the Green Zone (75-125 yards) and the Yellow Zone (125-175 yards). If he can straighten out his putting and get near the average on Tour in Putts Gained, he would be projected to get into contention immediately. But, he may be missing out on those victories if he does not become more aggressive on the Par-5s.

Hunter Mahan

HunterMahan

The numbers have projected Mahan’s regression for quite some time. He simply has struggled too much from the Red Zone (175-225 yards) for too long to continue to be successful on Tour. Eventually, his driving started to regress, as well as his Yellow Zone play (125-175 yards).

Good Red-Zone performers tend to do a good job at avoiding bogeys and those big numbers that kill a round of golf. Good Yellow-Zone performers tend to make more birdies on the Par-4s, because they are hitting those approach shots closer to the makeable putt range. For a while, Mahan was countering his poor Red-Zone play with great Yellow Zone play. He no longer does that, hence his struggles this season.

It’s funny because most people tend to think that Mahan was never quite an upper echelon player (top-5 in the world) because of his putting and short game. That’s never been the case, though. He has struggled severely with his Red Zone Play, and now his Yellow Zone play and driving are following suit.

Ian Poulter 

IanPoulter

Poulter’s metrics may boost the hopes of U.S. Ryder Cup fans, as he has been a ferocious competitor for the European Ryder Cup team… but I wouldn’t count the chickens before they hatch. He is still a great short-game performer, which is the one area that has produced the best Ryder Cup players over the years. He is also a strong performer from the Red Zone, which is another key area in the Ryder Cup, and his putting is better than average.

Obviously, Poulter’s Yellow- and Green-Zone play has regressed. He typically has been a good Yellow-Zone performer and an inconsistent Green-Zone performer. Therefore, I would not be surprised if he regains his Yellow Zone performance as the season goes along.

His driving has also played a role in his regression. His club speed has slowed down considerably, as he was at 111.95 mph in 2014 and is now at 109.67 mph. A drop in club speed of 2.3 mph is sizable by Tour standards. He also ranks 190th in Hit Fairway Bunker percentage. That helps explain his regression from the Yellow Zone, as he is getting a lot of those shots from the fairway bunkers.

Webb Simpson 

WebbSimpson

Simpson’s ranking in earnings is much lower than his adjusted-scoring-average ranking, due to the fact that he has only played in 10 events this season. And fans of Simpson should be more concerned with his adjusted scoring average than his earnings. Adjusted scoring average will serve as a better predictor for a player’s earnings and FedEx points at the end of the season.

The good news for Simpson is that he is striking the ball quite well, and his Short Game is sharp. However, like Keegan Bradley, he has struggled with the adjustment to the non-anchored putter. Some may say that it gives credence to the ban on anchored putters, but as far as belly putters go, we simply did not have enough data to determine its true effect on putting performance. And one could argue that after a rough season putting in 2015 (where he still used anchor putting in some events), Adam Scott has putted well this season, as he is currently 71st in Putts Gained.

Boo Weekley

BooWeekley

I think most fans of Boo would expect these type of metrics: great ball striking, poor short-game play and poor putting.

This season, Boo has had struggles from the Yellow Zone. He has never been a consistently great performer from 125-150 yards, but he has had some inexplicable struggles from 150-175 yards (175th). This has greatly hurt his ability to make birdies on the Par-4’s (158th) and has hurt his Par-3 Scoring Average (151st).

We are also seeing Boo’s club speed drop substantially. He is currently at 111.6 mph, and was at 113.4 mph last season. He was at 114.9 mph in 2012.

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Ronald Montesano

    May 30, 2016 at 11:40 am

    Was going to say “Family” metric is missing for Hunter Mahan. Has so much money, wife and child and says, why struggle? why majors? why not worry? give him five years of crap play, a new swing coach or two, and he’ll wake up one morning and ask who he once might have was been, then get to work.

  2. Nick

    May 28, 2016 at 6:52 pm

    “I’m not a big believer in stats.” Jezus.

  3. BIG STU

    May 28, 2016 at 4:42 am

    Good article there Rich very informative I do not get into stats that much but that was good reading

  4. Dave

    May 27, 2016 at 8:24 pm

    Who cares stats stats that’s all they are new breed out there ,these boys are done and if Jordan doesn’t get back to having fun and just hit it already …..well

  5. Jochen

    May 27, 2016 at 4:53 pm

    Is there any good article on the website defining all the terms – green zone, adjusted scoring average, driving effectiveness etc.?

  6. steve

    May 27, 2016 at 7:36 am

    Bradley, Poulter, Mahan and Simpson who expected anything from them? These guys stink. Mickelson on the other hand is 2nd in scoring, no matter how you try to spin it. Phil just needs to put 4 good rounds together

  7. Milo

    May 26, 2016 at 3:14 pm

    I’d say that Mickelson this year has been better than the last 5 years.

    • Milo

      May 27, 2016 at 11:52 pm

      Jordan Spieth definitely is gonna have a nice long career. Bryson Dechambeau for me is still undetermined but I’m rooting for him.

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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