Opinion & Analysis

2017 U.S. Open: Odds, Picks, and Prop Bets

Published

9 years ago

Jun 13, 2017

The year’s second major has arrived as the world’s best players head to Wisconsin for the U.S. Open. It will certainly be a week of excitement (and plenty of complaining about the rough). The field is as strong as we’ll see all year; 58 of the world’s top-60 players are teeing it up this week including Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth, as well as 14 amateurs.

The storylines at Erin Hills are endless, but most headlines will surround Johnson’s first major start of 2017 (and first as a father of two) and the potential absence of Phil Mickelson. Johnson looks to become the first back-to-back U.S. Open winner since Curtis Strange in 1989, while Mickelson is in search of his first U.S. Open victory. But, as I’m sure you’ve heard, Mickelson plans to attend his daughter’s graduation in San Diego on Thursday and will need a lengthy weather delay to make his tee time.

Tournament Record: 268 by Rory McIlroy in 2011
18-Hole Record: 63 shared by Johnny Miller (1973), Tom Weiskopf (1980), Jack Nicklaus (1980), and Vijay Singh (2003).

The Course

Erin Hills will play host to the U.S. Open for the first time this year, but the course is no stranger to holding prestigious events. It was the site of the 2008 U.S. Women’s Public Links and 2011 U.S. Amateur. The par-72 course will be the second-longest track in tournament history, just a few yards behind Chambers Bay, playing at 7,693 yards. It features treacherous rough and fescue, which players have already criticized, and difficult bunkers.

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The tee ball will be a major factor this week. Luckily the fairways are relatively generous for a U.S. Open, but any miss will be severely penalized; if the players are lucky enough to find their ball in the fescue, the best they can hope for is to take their medicine and punch out.

The opening and closing holes, both par 5s, are the ones to watch this week. No. 1 plays at just over 600 yards, but it can be reached by much of the field and is a real scoring chance. Depending on the wind, anything worse than birdie could be giving a shot back to the field. No. 18, on the other hand, is a rarity on the PGA Tour; a true three-shot hole. At 663 yards, it’s out of reach for even the longest hitters. I wouldn’t be shocked, however, to see some ill-advised attempts to get there in two; especially for players right on the cut line or those in need of an eagle late on Sunday.

Odds

Dustin Johnson is the 2017 U.S. Open favorite.

Past champs in the field

Ernie Els +30000
Jim Furyk +25000
Angel Cabrera +40000
Lucas Glover +15000
Graeme McDowell +15000
Rory McIlroy +1200
Webb Simpson +17500
Justin Rose +2200
Martin Kaymer +6600
Jordan Spieth +1200
Dustin Johnson +750

Favorites

Dustin Johnson +750
Jordan Spieth +1200
Rory McIlroy +1200
Jason Day +1200
John Rahm +2000
Rickie Fowler +2000
Justin Rose +2200
Sergio Garcia +2200
Hideki Matsuyama +2800

Picks

The Memorial Tournament Presented By Nationwide - Final Round

2015 U.S. Open Champion Jordan Spieth is my pick to win.

My Pick – It’s hard to do, but I’m not taking DJ this week. His MC at Memorial put a little scare into me, and I have a bad feeling he’s going to slump for a few weeks. With that said, I’m going with 2015 U.S. Open Champion Jordan Spieth (+1200). Spieth usually gets into some trouble off the tee, but the generous fairways should bail him out on a few occasions and his putter has been much better over his last few starts. If he can sink a few putts early on, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get hot. On top of that, Spieth has one more advantage over the field; he competed in the 2011 U.S. Amateur at Erin Hills.

Value Pick – I’m going with Justin Rose this week at +2200. Generally, I’d go deeper down the odds list for this pick, but I don’t think Rose is getting the respect he deserves with these odds. Rose is a former U.S. Open Champion, so we know he can handle the pressure and he’s played great golf this season, most notably reaching a playoff at the Masters. The biggest knock against him is that he hasn’t won in a couple years, but that just tells me that he’s due for a W.

Long Shot – Thomas Pieters at +4000 is my long shot pick this week. This will be Pieters’ first start at a U.S. Open, but he proved his lack of experience is anything but an issue with a great performance at the Masters. He’s one of a few players who’s both long off the tee and a great putter (he averages 309.3 yards off the tee and ranks No. 11 in putt per round on the European Tour).

Props

Dustin Johnson & Jordan Spieth (+450) vs. the Field (-750): I’ll take these odds all day. Spieth is my pick to win, and DJ is the odds-on favorite. This is the U.S. Open, so anybody can win, but I’ll take my chances on this one.

Wire-to-Wire winner – Yes (+500): I’m going with “yes” here. It doesn’t happen often, but I have a feeling someone is going to get hot out of the gate and stick with it all four days. The wider fairways give some leeway off the tee, so the nerves of leading a major might be a little more subdued than a typical U.S. Open.

Top Spaniard – Sergio Garcia (+125): The trendy pick for this is Jon Rahm at +120, and Rahm definitely has the game to do it, but I’m going with experience and recent form. Garcia just won the Masters, and he has three top-5s in the U.S. Open. It’s tough to pick against that.

TV Times

June 15 (Round 1)

11:00 AM-6:00 PM* (FS1)
6:00-9:00 PM (FOX)

June 16 (Round 2)

11:00 AM-6:00 PM (FS1)
6:00-9:00 PM (FOX)

June 17 (Round 3)

11:00 AM-8:00 PM (FOX)
5:00-8:00 PM (FOX Deportes)

June 18 (Round 4)

11:00 AM-8:30 PM (FOX)
5:00-8:30 PM (FOX Deportes)

*Local Time: Central Daylight Time (CDT)

Opinion & Analysis

5 Things We Learned: Thursday at the PGA Championship

Published

2 weeks ago

May 15, 2026

Ronald Montesano

Aronimink is not a storied club, but when Donald Ross himself proclaimed it to be as good as he can design and build, one had to take notice. Jay Sigel was the pre-eminent male amateur golfer from the mid-1970s to the mid-1990s. He might have called any number of Philadelphia clubs home, but he chose Aronimink. It served him well. Gary Player won a PGA Championship here in 1962, and was followed by the 1993 winner … nobody. Aronimink gave that event away to Inverness, for reasons of which it is certainly not proud. So be it. We had to wait sixty-four years for the PGA to return to Newtown Square, but here we are. Aronimink has been neo-restored by Gil Hanse and team, to return Ross features with an eye toward defense against the dark arts, errrr, high-tech equipment.

Day one saw Rory McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau dig big holes, to the tune of plus-four and plus-six, respectively. Since the first-round lead will be minus-three at worst, many shots will need to be made up for the power couple to reach contention. By nightfall, seven golfers held the day-one lead at three-under par 67. Shots and sticks caught our attention, and we are proud to present Five Things We Learned on Tech Thursday at the 2026 PGA Championship. Thanks to InsideTourGolfer, Today’s Golfer, and GolfWRX for initial equipment research.

First, meet Min Woo Lee

Min Woo Lee, aka Dr. Chipinski, has once again thrust himself into the conversation of Can he, will he, when will he? Lee has so much talent, wins not nearly as often as we believe that he should, and has no major near-misses (much less titles) on his wiki. The young Aussie is getting older and wiser, but is he able to avoid the scarring that holds the older and wiser back from breaking through? Philadelphia offers another opportunity. Min Woo signed for five birdies and two bogeys on day one, and grabbed a share of the opening-day lead at Aronimink. Winners transcend history and the moment, and Lee will need that sort of ascent to lift the Wannamaker on Sunday.

Second, meet Aldrich Potgeiter

The young South African golfer can rip driver with the best of them. Aronimink tips out at nearly 7400 yards, but beyond the fairway bunkers that ensnare only the mortals, Potgeiter can take his chances with wedge from the rough. On Thursday, he spent plenty of time in the spinach. Like Popeye, he used his muscles to gouge and thrash and dig his way out. Six birdies against three bogeys on the card brought AP in a three deep.

Third, meet Martin Kaymer

Not a major event takes place without a where’s he been throwback moment. We know that Martin Kaymer left the PGA and DP World tours for LIV golf, but the two-time (US Open and PGA) major winner has a lifetime exemption into at least one major event, and he seizes the opportunity each May. Kaymer joined the six-seven brigade with four birdies and a solitary bogey on day one. Kaymer was never a long hitter, and the years are kind to no golfer. The German champion will need to uncork every bottle of guile and strategy in his cabinet to remain in contention. For today, though, he occupies a rung on the ladder of Tour Tech.

Fourth, meet Scottie Scheffler

Let’s see, he’s the defending champion at the PGA, and he found his way back to the top tier with five birdies against two bogeys. To be a favorite and then play up to that stature and expectation is quite difficult. Just ask Rory, Bryson, and some of the other pre-tournament heartthrobs. Scheffler’s game is complete, and to knock him off the OWGR #1 pedestal, one needs to defeat him at the majors. Aronimink is the sort of course that fits Scheffler’s game. Better yet, it unfits the game of many of his challengers. Don’t expect Scheffler to go away anytime soon. Come Sunday, he’ll be around.

Fifth, meet Stephan Jaeger

Clocking in for the unheralded players shift are Ryo Hisatsune and Stephan Jaeger. Hisatsune logged seven birdies on day one, but gave most of them back with four bogeys. Still, he’s tied at the top for a time. Jaeger pitched five birdies against two bogeys, including a run of three consecutive, from holes four through six. Odds are that one of the two will hang around through 36 holes. Odds also suggest that both will be gone by Saturday evening. Still, the PGA Championship has historically been the major most likely to be won by an under-known. Both Hisatsune and Jaeger feature on that list, so good luck, lads!

Club Junkie

Club Junkie’s Titleist GTS driver fitting results!

Published

2 weeks ago

May 14, 2026

Brian Knudson

On this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, I head to the Titleist Performance Institute for a full driver fitting with the new Titleist GTS lineup. We dive into the fitting process, talk about what made the biggest difference in performance, and break down how the different GTS heads and shaft combinations compare on the launch monitor. If you are thinking about a new driver setup for this season, there is a lot to take away from this one.

I also get into Brooks Koepka and the gear setup he brought to the PGA Championship, including the putters that caught my eye during the week. There are some interesting equipment trends showing up at the highest level right now and we break down what stands out.

To wrap things up, I talk about reshafting a few wedges, what I learned during the process, and swapping an adaptor onto a new shaft for another build project in the shop. A gear packed episode from start to finish for anyone who loves golf equipment and club building.

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Club Junkie

Club Junkie WITB, week 16: New Titleist GTS woods!

Published

2 weeks ago

May 14, 2026

Brian Knudson

Excited for this week’s WITB as we get to add the new Titleist GTS woods to the bag! I was fit at Titleist’s TPI facility in Oceanside California a few weeks ago and my new clubs just showed up. I am also adding a cool set of irons that I built last year some wild custom wedges into a new golf bag. Speaking of the bag I have a new Ghost Anyday Black Ops stand bag that I will be using on my Motocaddy Remote M7 electric cart.

Driver: Titleist GTS3 (11 degrees @ 10.25)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Red 6s

3-wood: Titleist GT1 3Tour (14.5 degrees)
Shaft: Graphite Design Tour AD CQ-7s

5-wood: Titleist GTS (18 degrees)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Red 7s

9-wood: Titleist GT1 (24 degress)
Shaft: Fujikura Ventus Red 7s

Irons: Bettinardi CB24 (5-PW)
Shafts: KBS C-Taper Lite 110 stiff

Wedge: TaylorMade MG5 (50-09 SB)
Shaft: Mitsubishi MMT 125 Stiff

Wedge: TaylorMade MG5 (56-12 SB)
Shaft: Mitsubishi MMT 125 Stiff

Wedge: TaylorMade MG5 (60-08 LB)
Shaft: Mitsubishi MMT 125 Stiff

Putter: Dan Carraher ZT Proto

Ball: Callaway Chrome Tour

Bag: Ghost Anyday Black Ops Stand Bag