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Opinion & Analysis

2017 U.S. Open: Odds, Picks, and Prop Bets

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The year’s second major has arrived as the world’s best players head to Wisconsin for the U.S. Open. It will certainly be a week of excitement (and plenty of complaining about the rough). The field is as strong as we’ll see all year; 58 of the world’s top-60 players are teeing it up this week including Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth, as well as 14 amateurs.

The storylines at Erin Hills are endless, but most headlines will surround Johnson’s first major start of 2017 (and first as a father of two) and the potential absence of Phil Mickelson. Johnson looks to become the first back-to-back U.S. Open winner since Curtis Strange in 1989, while Mickelson is in search of his first U.S. Open victory. But, as I’m sure you’ve heard, Mickelson plans to attend his daughter’s graduation in San Diego on Thursday and will need a lengthy weather delay to make his tee time.

  • Tournament Record: 268 by Rory McIlroy in 2011
  • 18-Hole Record: 63 shared by Johnny Miller (1973), Tom Weiskopf (1980), Jack Nicklaus (1980), and Vijay Singh (2003).

The Course

Erin Hills will play host to the U.S. Open for the first time this year, but the course is no stranger to holding prestigious events. It was the site of the 2008 U.S. Women’s Public Links and 2011 U.S. Amateur. The par-72 course will be the second-longest track in tournament history, just a few yards behind Chambers Bay, playing at 7,693 yards. It features treacherous rough and fescue, which players have already criticized, and difficult bunkers.

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The tee ball will be a major factor this week. Luckily the fairways are relatively generous for a U.S. Open, but any miss will be severely penalized; if the players are lucky enough to find their ball in the fescue, the best they can hope for is to take their medicine and punch out.

The opening and closing holes, both par 5s, are the ones to watch this week. No. 1 plays at just over 600 yards, but it can be reached by much of the field and is a real scoring chance. Depending on the wind, anything worse than birdie could be giving a shot back to the field. No. 18, on the other hand, is a rarity on the PGA Tour; a true three-shot hole. At 663 yards, it’s out of reach for even the longest hitters. I wouldn’t be shocked, however, to see some ill-advised attempts to get there in two; especially for players right on the cut line or those in need of an eagle late on Sunday.

Odds

Dustin Johnson is the 2017 U.S. Open favorite.

Dustin Johnson is the 2017 U.S. Open favorite.

Past champs in the field

  • Ernie Els +30000
  • Jim Furyk +25000
  • Angel Cabrera +40000
  • Lucas Glover +15000
  • Graeme McDowell +15000
  • Rory McIlroy +1200
  • Webb Simpson +17500
  • Justin Rose +2200
  • Martin Kaymer +6600
  • Jordan Spieth +1200
  • Dustin Johnson +750

Favorites

  • Dustin Johnson +750
  • Jordan Spieth +1200
  • Rory McIlroy +1200
  • Jason Day +1200
  • John Rahm +2000
  • Rickie Fowler +2000
  • Justin Rose +2200
  • Sergio Garcia +2200
  • Hideki Matsuyama +2800

Picks

The Memorial Tournament Presented By Nationwide - Final Round

2015 U.S. Open Champion Jordan Spieth is my pick to win.

My Pick – It’s hard to do, but I’m not taking DJ this week. His MC at Memorial put a little scare into me, and I have a bad feeling he’s going to slump for a few weeks. With that said, I’m going with 2015 U.S. Open Champion Jordan Spieth (+1200). Spieth usually gets into some trouble off the tee, but the generous fairways should bail him out on a few occasions and his putter has been much better over his last few starts. If he can sink a few putts early on, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get hot. On top of that, Spieth has one more advantage over the field; he competed in the 2011 U.S. Amateur at Erin Hills.

Value Pick – I’m going with Justin Rose this week at +2200. Generally, I’d go deeper down the odds list for this pick, but I don’t think Rose is getting the respect he deserves with these odds. Rose is a former U.S. Open Champion, so we know he can handle the pressure and he’s played great golf this season, most notably reaching a playoff at the Masters. The biggest knock against him is that he hasn’t won in a couple years, but that just tells me that he’s due for a W.

Long Shot – Thomas Pieters at +4000 is my long shot pick this week. This will be Pieters’ first start at a U.S. Open, but he proved his lack of experience is anything but an issue with a great performance at the Masters. He’s one of a few players who’s both long off the tee and a great putter (he averages 309.3 yards off the tee and ranks No. 11 in putt per round on the European Tour).

Props

Dustin Johnson & Jordan Spieth (+450) vs. the Field (-750): I’ll take these odds all day. Spieth is my pick to win, and DJ is the odds-on favorite. This is the U.S. Open, so anybody can win, but I’ll take my chances on this one.

Wire-to-Wire winner – Yes (+500): I’m going with “yes” here. It doesn’t happen often, but I have a feeling someone is going to get hot out of the gate and stick with it all four days. The wider fairways give some leeway off the tee, so the nerves of leading a major might be a little more subdued than a typical U.S. Open.

Top Spaniard – Sergio Garcia (+125): The trendy pick for this is Jon Rahm at +120, and Rahm definitely has the game to do it, but I’m going with experience and recent form. Garcia just won the Masters, and he has three top-5s in the U.S. Open. It’s tough to pick against that.

TV Times

June 15 (Round 1)

  • 11:00 AM-6:00 PM* (FS1)
  • 6:00-9:00 PM (FOX)

June 16 (Round 2)

  • 11:00 AM-6:00 PM (FS1)
  • 6:00-9:00 PM (FOX)

June 17 (Round 3)

  • 11:00 AM-8:00 PM (FOX)
  • 5:00-8:00 PM (FOX Deportes)

June 18 (Round 4)

  • 11:00 AM-8:30 PM (FOX)
  • 5:00-8:30 PM (FOX Deportes)

*Local Time: Central Daylight Time (CDT)

Twitter @NickRitaccoGolf

6 Comments

6 Comments

  1. rebfan73

    Jun 13, 2017 at 11:29 pm

    You said Deportes

  2. Steve

    Jun 13, 2017 at 1:36 pm

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Spieth misses the cut. Given his propensity to push his drive miles to the right, he could have numerous unplayable shots. I would bet the farm that he is not top 5. And I’m a fan of the guy, but this is not the course for him.
    Justin Thomas is my pick to win, with Adam Scott (if he can figure out how to sink putts) a 2nd choice.

    • Nick Ritacco

      Jun 13, 2017 at 2:50 pm

      I’d be surprised if he MC but it’s the US Open; a few disaster holes are lurking for everyone so it’s possible. Really wide fairways for a US Open though so I think he’ll get away with more misses here than at any other Open venue. Thomas and Scott are both solid choices but didn’t quite make my cut. Love watching JT play but I like Pieters at +4000 more than JT at +3300.

    • Z

      Jun 14, 2017 at 2:55 am

      Dude, the fairways are 75 yards in spots, and most of them they are 50 yards wide. Nobody will have any serious issues off the tee, the course is not designed that way – unless, the wind blows.
      The game is about how they attack the greens and what kind of horrible situations they get into when they miss the greens a little and the ball rolls away into the grass or the gnarly bunkers.

      • Nick Ritacco

        Jun 14, 2017 at 9:22 am

        Agreed, and I’ve heard quite a few reports that say the BIG misses aren’t as bad as just rolling into the fescue – the deeper in to the fescue you get, the thinner it is.

  3. TheCityGame

    Jun 13, 2017 at 10:57 am

    You have DJ listed at +450 and you have DJ & JS (+450) vs the field.

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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