Opinion & Analysis
The 24 players who can win The 2018 Masters
Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players that are most likely to win the Green Jacket based on criteria that has strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 players. Last year, I had Sergio Garcia as one of my 20 players that could win the Masters. Despite Sergio’s lack of success at Augusta, he came away with the Green Jacket.
Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores. This year the projected Critical Holes are Nos. 3, 13, 14 and 15.
Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Filtered Out: Amateurs and First-Time Attendees
- Wesley Bryan
- Austin Cook
- Harry Ellis (a)
- Tony Finau
- Dylan Frittelli
- Doug Ghim (a)
- Patton Kizzire
- Satoshin Kodaira
- Haotong Li
- Yuxin Lin (a)
- Yusaku Miyazato
- Joaquin Niemann (a)
- Matt Parziale (a)
- Doc Redman (a)
- Xander Schauffele
- Shubhankar Sharma
These first-time invitees are a little less battle tested on the big stage than the previous years’ first time invitees, although Finau, Schauffele and Li show some real promise in the future at Augusta. I also filtered out 11 past champions that I do not believe can compete at Augusta National anymore.
Filtered Out: Improbable Past Champions
- Angel Cabrera
- Fred Couples
- Trevor Immelman
- Bernhard Langer
- Sandy Lyle
- Larry Mize
- Mark O’Meara
- Jose Maria Olazabal
- Vijay Singh
- Mike Weir
- Ian Woosnam
The Zach Johnson Debate
Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always get pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par-5s more like par-4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.
When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par-5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par-5’s, his strength. The temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-70s this year. Unless that changes by 30+ degrees and the wind gusts double, I don’t see Johnson having a very good chance to win the event. Along with Johnson, I would also eliminate these shorter hitters:
Filtered-Out: Short Hitters
- Adam Hadwin
- Brian Harman
- Kevin Kisner
- Matt Kuchar
- Ryan Moore
- Pat Perez
- Ted Potter, Jr.
- Chez Reavie
- Webb Simpson
- Kyle Stanley
- Si Woo Kim
A part of the game that is just as critical as distance is the trajectory height a player can create. Last year, I filtered out nine players for hitting the ball too low. Four of the nine missed the cut. One of the picks, Paul Casey, finished T6. His instructor, Peter Kostis, recommended that I not just look solely at the Apex Height metric, but also look at carry distance when it comes to the trajectory the player puts on the ball. I have done that for this year’s Masters picks and have eliminated four players.
Filtered Out: Low-Ball Hitters
- Jason Dufner
- Branden Grace
- Russell Henley
- Ian Poulter
Since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters that have previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s filter them out as well.
Filtered Out: Never Made the Cut at Augusta
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Alex Noren
- Jhonattan Vegas
I will also filter out the players that missed the cut at the Houston Open. Missing the cut the week prior to an event greatly reduces the likelihood of the player winning, finishing in the top-10, finishing in the top-25 and even making the cut regardless of the event.
Filtered Out: Missed the Cut in Houston
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello
- Yuta Ikeda
- Martin Kaymer
Lastly, I have filtered out the weak performers from the “Red Zone,” approach shots from 175-225 yards. While Augusta is known for its greens, the winners are determined mostly by the quality of their approach shots throughout the event. In fact, nine of the last 10 champions have hit at least 49 Greens in Regulation during the week.
The key shots where the most strokes are gained/lost at Augusta National are from the Red Zone. Last year, I had 17 players filtered out for poor Red Zone play. Outside of Kevin Chappell (T7), almost all of those players performed poorly.
Filtered Out: Weak from 175-225 Yards
- Kiradech Aphibarnrat
- Patrick Cantlay
- Jason Day
- Ross Fisher
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Billy Horschel
- Dustin Johnson
- Francesco Molinari
- Charl Schwartzel
- Brendan Steele
- Bernd Wiesberger
- Danny Willett
Perhaps the biggest surprise here is Dustin Johnson. He currently ranks 176th from the Red Zone despite historically being an excellent Red Zone performer. At his current rate, he would like need to dominate Augusta off the tee with his prodigious length and putt very well to win the Green Jacket. But the numbers don’t like a player’s odds of being able to do that on such an approach shot oriented course.
That leaves us with 24 players that can win the Masters. Their Vegas Odds, which are subject to change, are in parentheses. My personal top-10 picks are just below.
The 24 players who can win the 2018 Masters
- Paul Casey (22/1)
- Kevin Chappell (100/1)
- Bryson DeChambeau (66/1)
- Rickie Fowler (18/1)
- Sergio Garcia (28/1)
- Charley Hoffman (80/1)
- Mark Leishman (66/1)
- Hideki Matsuyama (25/1)
- Rory McIlroy (9/1)
- Phil Mickelson (16/1)
- Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
- Thomas Pieters (66/1)
- Jon Rahm (18/1)
- Patrick Reed (40/1)
- Justin Rose (20/1)
- Adam Scott (33/1)
- Cameron Smith (150/1)
- Jordan Spieth (10/1)
- Henrik Stenson (40/1)
- Justin Thomas (10/1)
- Jimmy Walker (150/1)
- Bubba Watson (14/1)
- Gary Woodland (150/1)
- Tiger Woods (11/1)
My Personal Top-10 Picks
- Paul Casey (22/1)
- Rory McIlroy (9/1)
- Phil Mickelson (16/1)
- Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
- Jon Rahm (18/1)
- Patrick Reed (40/1)
- Justin Rose (20/1)
- Jordan Spieth (10/1)
- Justin Thomas (10/1)
- Bubba Watson (14/1)
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
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DrRob1963
Apr 12, 2018 at 8:34 am
You should add a “Can’t Putt” catagory
Grant
Apr 11, 2018 at 1:39 pm
Hey Rich,
Nice job on this! Wondering if you do this for the other majors as well?
Tal
Apr 9, 2018 at 3:21 am
Great job on this! You picked the winner again.
Woody
Apr 8, 2018 at 9:50 pm
Hey man, I give you props. You had Reed in your top 10..expert proved right.
Eddie Von Eric
Apr 4, 2018 at 10:58 am
Richies expert analysis is equivalent to that big deuce I dropped this morning in the IHOP bathroom.
Kris
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:10 pm
Great article. Fun to read.
Jack Nicholas
Apr 3, 2018 at 2:05 pm
RG, mathematical probabilities are scary, huh. You should sharpen your pin and just stick away and leave the real analysis to the brainier ones of the species. Go bet some of your benjamins on Woosnam, Mize et al and see how far you get.
kevin
Apr 3, 2018 at 1:08 pm
every stat i see has DJ in top 20 relative to approach shots within 175-200yds.
https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.337.html
Rich Hunt
Apr 3, 2018 at 6:26 pm
But, he’s also 207th from 200-225 yards:
https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02358.html
J
Apr 3, 2018 at 11:57 am
Any of the field you see that can place top 10 or 20 outside of your top 24 to win?
Richie Hunt
Apr 4, 2018 at 10:18 am
I could see Dustin winning. If he can get his Red Zone play back to its old self, it can happen. Otherwise, he has to drive the ball ridiculously well and putt well to make up for it. It can happen, just a tall task. Kuchar is playing well right now and if the conditions start to favor him he could do something. Russell Henley is currently ranked #1 from the Red Zone. If the conditions work out for him, he could contend.
Cliff Hartman
Apr 3, 2018 at 10:15 am
I don’t see where you have accounted for Daniel Berger???
Charles Aspinal
Apr 3, 2018 at 1:04 pm
You beat me to it; I have same question.
Dan
Apr 3, 2018 at 7:15 am
Cameron Smith is a first timer right? He’s on the list of 24 though. Correct me if I’m wrong.
Rich Hunt
Apr 3, 2018 at 8:39 am
No, Smith played in 2016 and finished t-55th.
Undershooter30
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:26 pm
Reed doesn’t hit it high enough to win. He has the right to left ball flight but his shot height is very low.
Richie Hunt
Apr 8, 2018 at 7:02 pm
You were saying? 🙂
Trevor Heathers
Apr 2, 2018 at 9:37 pm
LOL that picture of Rich is from 20 years ago! Check out his video on Bebettergolf. He’s fat too.
Liam Pierce
Apr 3, 2018 at 3:05 pm
I know its hilarious. Guy is such an egomaniac that he has to post a picture of when he was young.
Liz Murray
Apr 2, 2018 at 8:22 pm
Love your predictions every year! My question is do you think Matsuyama‘s recent injury will affect his playing this weekend?
Rich Hunt
Apr 3, 2018 at 8:43 am
Thank you.
Tough to say as it’s difficult to predict if the injury and his game heals in time or not. That’s why I put him in the top-24, but not in the top-10.
Michaele11111
Apr 2, 2018 at 5:34 pm
Pretty lame stuff. Very full of holes.
Joel
Apr 2, 2018 at 9:45 pm
Boo, this comment. Just, booooooo.
This is a fun article every year.
nyguy
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:46 pm
The #1 Player in the world doesn’t have a chance?? lol ridiculous.
Jack Nicholas
Apr 3, 2018 at 1:11 pm
Number 1 never wins The Masters. Hasn’t ever happened so it’s mathematically less likely.
Kris
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:01 pm
Yes. He was disqualified because of his 200-225 accuracy this year. Lmao.
Robert
Apr 2, 2018 at 3:32 pm
Rich please elaborate as to how is Jason Day weak from 175 yards when he is T33 according to pgatour.com?
Richie Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 3:58 pm
I am not sure what metrics you are looking at. For instance, just take a look at his play from 175-200 yards from the fairway where he ranks 199th: https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.337.html
Generally, Day’s largest weakness in his game over the years has been from 150-200 yards. He uses his driving, short game play and great putting to overcome that. But that is a tall task to do at Augusta.
kevin
Apr 2, 2018 at 3:12 pm
Really enjoy this column. ignore the haters! Thanks Rich
Zac
Apr 2, 2018 at 1:24 pm
Since when is Kyle Stanley a short hitter?!?!
Nate
Apr 2, 2018 at 1:52 pm
never. dude’s a beast
Richie Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:01 pm
Kyle ranks 140th in driving distance and 114th in club speed. He altered his swing a few years ago to drop his club speed from 117 mph to about 112 mph. Still strikes it great, but the numbers indicate that unless the wind picks up, winning at Augusta isn’t likely. In fact, it’s supposed to rain at ANGC which would only favor the longer hitters.
Kris
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:04 pm
Rain helps the shorter players. See Johnson Z. And Weir M.
Makes the greens easier to hold. Which is a way bigger advantage than distance.
Richie Hunt
Apr 4, 2018 at 10:12 am
Zach didn’t have rain. He had record low temperatures and high wind gusts. Even the bombers had trouble going for the par-5’s in two shots when Zach won.
Generally on Tour, rain helps the bombers. But since there is no rough to really speak of at ANGC, I can see it helping shorter hitters a little. The time that Weir won, Weir was one of the very best in the world from inside 200 yards, so it wasn’t like he couldn’t play.
Matt
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:53 pm
My sediments exactly!
kevin
Apr 3, 2018 at 1:00 pm
He’s 140th in driving distance in 2018.
c’mon people…these stats aren’t that hard to look up.
Megabill
Apr 2, 2018 at 1:22 pm
How can you filter based on 175-225 performance? Doesn’t 100 to 175 have more influence on the winner?
Does the 175-225 stat really influence who becomes champion?
Also many filtered by that stat hit it so far that they rarely have to hit in from that distance.
Richie Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:03 pm
Shots from 100-175 yards do not have more ‘influence’ on the winner. And Tour players on average hit more shots per round from 150-200 yards than they do from 75-150 yards. It’s also not all about the frequency of shots. But it’s about the deviation in results. Combine those two at ANGC and that’s why you see players that perform well from there on top of the leaderboard.
brad
Apr 2, 2018 at 1:17 pm
Xander Schauffele will make the cut, and Daniel Berger will be in the mix.
Dan
Apr 2, 2018 at 12:06 pm
Not a perfect system because none is but would anyone seriously take the rest of the field over Richies 24?
I’d say DJ and Jason Day are tough ones but his list looks pretty good…. Fleetwood, Carera Bello, Noren maybe?
List looks good to me
Ryan Schmidlin
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:58 am
Where is Daniel Berger on this list????
Max
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:52 am
I mean, if you look at last year’s results, many of the guys you filtered out finished in the top 10 and were probably a lucky bounce/bad break away from being in contention. Let’s also not forget guys like Bernhard Langer and Soren Kjeldsen were in contention a few years ago.
I like the analysis, though, and the winner is more likely to be on your list than not.
Tal
Apr 2, 2018 at 6:49 pm
He’s not trying to predict the top 10, he’s trying to predict a single winner as as you say, they’re most likely on that list. I believe Rich has shortlisted the winner for the last 2 years, if I’m not mistaken.
Rich Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:01 pm
I’ve shortlisted the winner every year that I’ve done this going back to 2013.
juststeve
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:35 am
Very bold to rule out Dustin Johnson. Lets see if you’re right.
Kris
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:07 pm
Not really bold, actually. If he doesn’t win the tournament Rich is right.
Courtney (not female)
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:32 am
What a backwards way of thinking, thoughts on Tiger getting to tee it up?
dat
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:26 am
A fair assessment, but you forgot about whoever wins the par 3 contest automatically being out of the running based on past data.
Tim Braun
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:21 am
Jason Day would be the one that I would question not being on your list. With his driving ability and his top putting that outweighs the approach shot debate. I’m not saying he is going to win, but Gary Woodland or Cameron Smith??? Certainly we can make a substitution.
Robert
Apr 2, 2018 at 3:25 pm
I just checked pgatour.com and JD is T33 in approaches from 175-200. So I’d like to know how in the world is that weak?
Richie Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:05 pm
I do not know where you are getting that metric from. He’s 199th from 175-200 yards from the fairway:
https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.337.html
And he’s 168th from 200-225 yards from fairway:
https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02358.html
Kobie Pieterse
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:35 am
Rich, not sure where you get your data from, I just checked again now, Jason Day was ranked T33 last week and T41 this week for 175-200 (https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.327.html)
Travis R
Apr 3, 2018 at 11:46 am
Your stat is only GIR, Richie’s takes into account proximity to the hole from that distance and score. So apparently Jason is hitting the green often from that distance, he just isnt getting it particularly close or making the birdie putt.
Ray Bennett
Apr 2, 2018 at 6:15 pm
Cam is currently the best Aussie in the field (on form), great chance in this field.
Mikec
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:21 am
No filter is perfect, but this system seems to be a very logical way to get down to a set of names to wager — from there it is old fashioned gut and handicapping based on form etc — but I like the approach of thinning the field
Oscar
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:20 am
what about Daniel Berger?
RG
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:03 am
You filtered out a guy (Danny Willett) whose already shown he can win. This shows the inherent problem in your prediction filter. Oh, and statistically speaking any of those players CAN win the Master’s and I reject the null hypothesis that you present.
Al Czervik
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:36 am
He is talking about the 2018 Masters. Dude is 296th in the world.
Al Czervik
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:41 am
The real problem is that his Improbable Past Champions filter didn’t catch him. I would be far more shocked if Willett made a run than say Cabrera or even Langer.
Josh
Apr 2, 2018 at 5:19 pm
I made a lot of money on Danny Willett two years ago, but I wouldn’t bet one red cent that he’ll ever win another Masters. Dude was a fluke who only won cause Jordan blew it. For the record I also had a stake in Spieth so it was a good weekend.