Opinion & Analysis
The 24 players who can win The 2018 Masters
Each year for the Masters, I create a filtering process to help determine the players that are most likely to win the Green Jacket based on criteria that has strongly predicted outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 23 players. Last year, I had Sergio Garcia as one of my 20 players that could win the Masters. Despite Sergio’s lack of success at Augusta, he came away with the Green Jacket.
Before I discuss my picks for this year’s Masters, I want to go over what I call the “critical holes” for Augusta National. The critical holes in any tournament are the ones where the top finishers typically gain the most strokes on the field, as well as where the greatest deviation in scores exist. One of the interesting aspects about critical holes is that they often change over time due to changes in the course conditions, course design or a change in player strategy, which can create a smaller deviation in scores. This year the projected Critical Holes are Nos. 3, 13, 14 and 15.
Moving on to the tournament, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won once by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Filtered Out: Amateurs and First-Time Attendees
- Wesley Bryan
- Austin Cook
- Harry Ellis (a)
- Tony Finau
- Dylan Frittelli
- Doug Ghim (a)
- Patton Kizzire
- Satoshin Kodaira
- Haotong Li
- Yuxin Lin (a)
- Yusaku Miyazato
- Joaquin Niemann (a)
- Matt Parziale (a)
- Doc Redman (a)
- Xander Schauffele
- Shubhankar Sharma
These first-time invitees are a little less battle tested on the big stage than the previous years’ first time invitees, although Finau, Schauffele and Li show some real promise in the future at Augusta. I also filtered out 11 past champions that I do not believe can compete at Augusta National anymore.
Filtered Out: Improbable Past Champions
- Angel Cabrera
- Fred Couples
- Trevor Immelman
- Bernhard Langer
- Sandy Lyle
- Larry Mize
- Mark O’Meara
- Jose Maria Olazabal
- Vijay Singh
- Mike Weir
- Ian Woosnam
The Zach Johnson Debate
Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always get pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par-5s more like par-4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.
When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par-5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par-5’s, his strength. The temperatures are predicted to be in the mid-70s this year. Unless that changes by 30+ degrees and the wind gusts double, I don’t see Johnson having a very good chance to win the event. Along with Johnson, I would also eliminate these shorter hitters:
Filtered-Out: Short Hitters
- Adam Hadwin
- Brian Harman
- Kevin Kisner
- Matt Kuchar
- Ryan Moore
- Pat Perez
- Ted Potter, Jr.
- Chez Reavie
- Webb Simpson
- Kyle Stanley
- Si Woo Kim
A part of the game that is just as critical as distance is the trajectory height a player can create. Last year, I filtered out nine players for hitting the ball too low. Four of the nine missed the cut. One of the picks, Paul Casey, finished T6. His instructor, Peter Kostis, recommended that I not just look solely at the Apex Height metric, but also look at carry distance when it comes to the trajectory the player puts on the ball. I have done that for this year’s Masters picks and have eliminated four players.
Filtered Out: Low-Ball Hitters
- Jason Dufner
- Branden Grace
- Russell Henley
- Ian Poulter
Since the inauguration of the event, there have only been two winners of the Masters that have previously never made the cut: Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 and Gene Sarazen in 1936. Let’s filter them out as well.
Filtered Out: Never Made the Cut at Augusta
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Alex Noren
- Jhonattan Vegas
I will also filter out the players that missed the cut at the Houston Open. Missing the cut the week prior to an event greatly reduces the likelihood of the player winning, finishing in the top-10, finishing in the top-25 and even making the cut regardless of the event.
Filtered Out: Missed the Cut in Houston
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello
- Yuta Ikeda
- Martin Kaymer
Lastly, I have filtered out the weak performers from the “Red Zone,” approach shots from 175-225 yards. While Augusta is known for its greens, the winners are determined mostly by the quality of their approach shots throughout the event. In fact, nine of the last 10 champions have hit at least 49 Greens in Regulation during the week.
The key shots where the most strokes are gained/lost at Augusta National are from the Red Zone. Last year, I had 17 players filtered out for poor Red Zone play. Outside of Kevin Chappell (T7), almost all of those players performed poorly.
Filtered Out: Weak from 175-225 Yards
- Kiradech Aphibarnrat
- Patrick Cantlay
- Jason Day
- Ross Fisher
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Billy Horschel
- Dustin Johnson
- Francesco Molinari
- Charl Schwartzel
- Brendan Steele
- Bernd Wiesberger
- Danny Willett
Perhaps the biggest surprise here is Dustin Johnson. He currently ranks 176th from the Red Zone despite historically being an excellent Red Zone performer. At his current rate, he would like need to dominate Augusta off the tee with his prodigious length and putt very well to win the Green Jacket. But the numbers don’t like a player’s odds of being able to do that on such an approach shot oriented course.
That leaves us with 24 players that can win the Masters. Their Vegas Odds, which are subject to change, are in parentheses. My personal top-10 picks are just below.
The 24 players who can win the 2018 Masters
- Paul Casey (22/1)
- Kevin Chappell (100/1)
- Bryson DeChambeau (66/1)
- Rickie Fowler (18/1)
- Sergio Garcia (28/1)
- Charley Hoffman (80/1)
- Mark Leishman (66/1)
- Hideki Matsuyama (25/1)
- Rory McIlroy (9/1)
- Phil Mickelson (16/1)
- Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
- Thomas Pieters (66/1)
- Jon Rahm (18/1)
- Patrick Reed (40/1)
- Justin Rose (20/1)
- Adam Scott (33/1)
- Cameron Smith (150/1)
- Jordan Spieth (10/1)
- Henrik Stenson (40/1)
- Justin Thomas (10/1)
- Jimmy Walker (150/1)
- Bubba Watson (14/1)
- Gary Woodland (150/1)
- Tiger Woods (11/1)
My Personal Top-10 Picks
- Paul Casey (22/1)
- Rory McIlroy (9/1)
- Phil Mickelson (16/1)
- Louis Oosthuizen (50/1)
- Jon Rahm (18/1)
- Patrick Reed (40/1)
- Justin Rose (20/1)
- Jordan Spieth (10/1)
- Justin Thomas (10/1)
- Bubba Watson (14/1)
As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.
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DrRob1963
Apr 12, 2018 at 8:34 am
You should add a “Can’t Putt” catagory
Grant
Apr 11, 2018 at 1:39 pm
Hey Rich,
Nice job on this! Wondering if you do this for the other majors as well?
Tal
Apr 9, 2018 at 3:21 am
Great job on this! You picked the winner again.
Woody
Apr 8, 2018 at 9:50 pm
Hey man, I give you props. You had Reed in your top 10..expert proved right.
Eddie Von Eric
Apr 4, 2018 at 10:58 am
Richies expert analysis is equivalent to that big deuce I dropped this morning in the IHOP bathroom.
Kris
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:10 pm
Great article. Fun to read.
Jack Nicholas
Apr 3, 2018 at 2:05 pm
RG, mathematical probabilities are scary, huh. You should sharpen your pin and just stick away and leave the real analysis to the brainier ones of the species. Go bet some of your benjamins on Woosnam, Mize et al and see how far you get.
kevin
Apr 3, 2018 at 1:08 pm
every stat i see has DJ in top 20 relative to approach shots within 175-200yds.
https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.337.html
Rich Hunt
Apr 3, 2018 at 6:26 pm
But, he’s also 207th from 200-225 yards:
https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02358.html
J
Apr 3, 2018 at 11:57 am
Any of the field you see that can place top 10 or 20 outside of your top 24 to win?
Richie Hunt
Apr 4, 2018 at 10:18 am
I could see Dustin winning. If he can get his Red Zone play back to its old self, it can happen. Otherwise, he has to drive the ball ridiculously well and putt well to make up for it. It can happen, just a tall task. Kuchar is playing well right now and if the conditions start to favor him he could do something. Russell Henley is currently ranked #1 from the Red Zone. If the conditions work out for him, he could contend.
Cliff Hartman
Apr 3, 2018 at 10:15 am
I don’t see where you have accounted for Daniel Berger???
Charles Aspinal
Apr 3, 2018 at 1:04 pm
You beat me to it; I have same question.
Dan
Apr 3, 2018 at 7:15 am
Cameron Smith is a first timer right? He’s on the list of 24 though. Correct me if I’m wrong.
Rich Hunt
Apr 3, 2018 at 8:39 am
No, Smith played in 2016 and finished t-55th.
Undershooter30
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:26 pm
Reed doesn’t hit it high enough to win. He has the right to left ball flight but his shot height is very low.
Richie Hunt
Apr 8, 2018 at 7:02 pm
You were saying? 🙂
Trevor Heathers
Apr 2, 2018 at 9:37 pm
LOL that picture of Rich is from 20 years ago! Check out his video on Bebettergolf. He’s fat too.
Liam Pierce
Apr 3, 2018 at 3:05 pm
I know its hilarious. Guy is such an egomaniac that he has to post a picture of when he was young.
Liz Murray
Apr 2, 2018 at 8:22 pm
Love your predictions every year! My question is do you think Matsuyama‘s recent injury will affect his playing this weekend?
Rich Hunt
Apr 3, 2018 at 8:43 am
Thank you.
Tough to say as it’s difficult to predict if the injury and his game heals in time or not. That’s why I put him in the top-24, but not in the top-10.
Michaele11111
Apr 2, 2018 at 5:34 pm
Pretty lame stuff. Very full of holes.
Joel
Apr 2, 2018 at 9:45 pm
Boo, this comment. Just, booooooo.
This is a fun article every year.
nyguy
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:46 pm
The #1 Player in the world doesn’t have a chance?? lol ridiculous.
Jack Nicholas
Apr 3, 2018 at 1:11 pm
Number 1 never wins The Masters. Hasn’t ever happened so it’s mathematically less likely.
Kris
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:01 pm
Yes. He was disqualified because of his 200-225 accuracy this year. Lmao.
Robert
Apr 2, 2018 at 3:32 pm
Rich please elaborate as to how is Jason Day weak from 175 yards when he is T33 according to pgatour.com?
Richie Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 3:58 pm
I am not sure what metrics you are looking at. For instance, just take a look at his play from 175-200 yards from the fairway where he ranks 199th: https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.337.html
Generally, Day’s largest weakness in his game over the years has been from 150-200 yards. He uses his driving, short game play and great putting to overcome that. But that is a tall task to do at Augusta.
kevin
Apr 2, 2018 at 3:12 pm
Really enjoy this column. ignore the haters! Thanks Rich
Zac
Apr 2, 2018 at 1:24 pm
Since when is Kyle Stanley a short hitter?!?!
Nate
Apr 2, 2018 at 1:52 pm
never. dude’s a beast
Richie Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:01 pm
Kyle ranks 140th in driving distance and 114th in club speed. He altered his swing a few years ago to drop his club speed from 117 mph to about 112 mph. Still strikes it great, but the numbers indicate that unless the wind picks up, winning at Augusta isn’t likely. In fact, it’s supposed to rain at ANGC which would only favor the longer hitters.
Kris
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:04 pm
Rain helps the shorter players. See Johnson Z. And Weir M.
Makes the greens easier to hold. Which is a way bigger advantage than distance.
Richie Hunt
Apr 4, 2018 at 10:12 am
Zach didn’t have rain. He had record low temperatures and high wind gusts. Even the bombers had trouble going for the par-5’s in two shots when Zach won.
Generally on Tour, rain helps the bombers. But since there is no rough to really speak of at ANGC, I can see it helping shorter hitters a little. The time that Weir won, Weir was one of the very best in the world from inside 200 yards, so it wasn’t like he couldn’t play.
Matt
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:53 pm
My sediments exactly!
kevin
Apr 3, 2018 at 1:00 pm
He’s 140th in driving distance in 2018.
c’mon people…these stats aren’t that hard to look up.
Megabill
Apr 2, 2018 at 1:22 pm
How can you filter based on 175-225 performance? Doesn’t 100 to 175 have more influence on the winner?
Does the 175-225 stat really influence who becomes champion?
Also many filtered by that stat hit it so far that they rarely have to hit in from that distance.
Richie Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:03 pm
Shots from 100-175 yards do not have more ‘influence’ on the winner. And Tour players on average hit more shots per round from 150-200 yards than they do from 75-150 yards. It’s also not all about the frequency of shots. But it’s about the deviation in results. Combine those two at ANGC and that’s why you see players that perform well from there on top of the leaderboard.
brad
Apr 2, 2018 at 1:17 pm
Xander Schauffele will make the cut, and Daniel Berger will be in the mix.
Dan
Apr 2, 2018 at 12:06 pm
Not a perfect system because none is but would anyone seriously take the rest of the field over Richies 24?
I’d say DJ and Jason Day are tough ones but his list looks pretty good…. Fleetwood, Carera Bello, Noren maybe?
List looks good to me
Ryan Schmidlin
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:58 am
Where is Daniel Berger on this list????
Max
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:52 am
I mean, if you look at last year’s results, many of the guys you filtered out finished in the top 10 and were probably a lucky bounce/bad break away from being in contention. Let’s also not forget guys like Bernhard Langer and Soren Kjeldsen were in contention a few years ago.
I like the analysis, though, and the winner is more likely to be on your list than not.
Tal
Apr 2, 2018 at 6:49 pm
He’s not trying to predict the top 10, he’s trying to predict a single winner as as you say, they’re most likely on that list. I believe Rich has shortlisted the winner for the last 2 years, if I’m not mistaken.
Rich Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:01 pm
I’ve shortlisted the winner every year that I’ve done this going back to 2013.
juststeve
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:35 am
Very bold to rule out Dustin Johnson. Lets see if you’re right.
Kris
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:07 pm
Not really bold, actually. If he doesn’t win the tournament Rich is right.
Courtney (not female)
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:32 am
What a backwards way of thinking, thoughts on Tiger getting to tee it up?
dat
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:26 am
A fair assessment, but you forgot about whoever wins the par 3 contest automatically being out of the running based on past data.
Tim Braun
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:21 am
Jason Day would be the one that I would question not being on your list. With his driving ability and his top putting that outweighs the approach shot debate. I’m not saying he is going to win, but Gary Woodland or Cameron Smith??? Certainly we can make a substitution.
Robert
Apr 2, 2018 at 3:25 pm
I just checked pgatour.com and JD is T33 in approaches from 175-200. So I’d like to know how in the world is that weak?
Richie Hunt
Apr 2, 2018 at 4:05 pm
I do not know where you are getting that metric from. He’s 199th from 175-200 yards from the fairway:
https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.337.html
And he’s 168th from 200-225 yards from fairway:
https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.02358.html
Kobie Pieterse
Apr 3, 2018 at 9:35 am
Rich, not sure where you get your data from, I just checked again now, Jason Day was ranked T33 last week and T41 this week for 175-200 (https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.327.html)
Travis R
Apr 3, 2018 at 11:46 am
Your stat is only GIR, Richie’s takes into account proximity to the hole from that distance and score. So apparently Jason is hitting the green often from that distance, he just isnt getting it particularly close or making the birdie putt.
Ray Bennett
Apr 2, 2018 at 6:15 pm
Cam is currently the best Aussie in the field (on form), great chance in this field.
Mikec
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:21 am
No filter is perfect, but this system seems to be a very logical way to get down to a set of names to wager — from there it is old fashioned gut and handicapping based on form etc — but I like the approach of thinning the field
Oscar
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:20 am
what about Daniel Berger?
RG
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:03 am
You filtered out a guy (Danny Willett) whose already shown he can win. This shows the inherent problem in your prediction filter. Oh, and statistically speaking any of those players CAN win the Master’s and I reject the null hypothesis that you present.
Al Czervik
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:36 am
He is talking about the 2018 Masters. Dude is 296th in the world.
Al Czervik
Apr 2, 2018 at 11:41 am
The real problem is that his Improbable Past Champions filter didn’t catch him. I would be far more shocked if Willett made a run than say Cabrera or even Langer.
Josh
Apr 2, 2018 at 5:19 pm
I made a lot of money on Danny Willett two years ago, but I wouldn’t bet one red cent that he’ll ever win another Masters. Dude was a fluke who only won cause Jordan blew it. For the record I also had a stake in Spieth so it was a good weekend.