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Opinion & Analysis

Fantasy Preview: 2018 Valspar Championship

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After a thrilling four days in Mexico, it’s back to the United States this week for the Valspar Championship. This year’s edition will play host to its strongest field yet, with Jordan Spieth, Rory Mcilroy, Tiger Woods, and Sergio Garcia just some of the big names who are ready to tackle the tricky test that Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) always provides.

Copperhead is a Par 71 that plays over 7,300 yards, with tight tree lined fairways and greens that are difficult to hit. Despite its length, it’s a second shot golf course, so strong iron play is imperative this week. Short game skills are always important around here too, as is par 3 and par-5 performance. There are five long par 3s on this course which always play extremely difficult, and four par 5s which should offer players some respite. Last year, Adam Hadwin claimed his maiden win on the PGA Tour here, posting 14-under par to defeat Patrick Cantlay by one stroke.

Selected Tournament Odds (via Bet365)

  • Jordan Spieth 17/2
  • Rory Mcilroy 14/1
  • Sergio Garcia 16/1
  • Justin Rose 18/1
  • Henrik Stenson 18/1
  • Paul Casey 25/1
  • Tony Finau 28/1

To qualify my statement that this is a second shot golf course, Frank Nobilo of Golf Channel has stated that he would be shocked if Tiger Woods hit driver more than twice each day this week. At Copperhead, getting the ball in play in the correct part of the fairway in order to attack the pins will be the strategy players have in mind. This will encourage any Tiger backers too, as the driver has been the one club stifling him this year. But with Bay Hill and Augusta to come next for Woods, I’m going to sit tight this week and see if he can build on what was a very encouraging display at the Honda Classic.

Instead, I’m happy to take a piece of Henrik Stenson (18/1, DK Price $10,200) who is making his first start of 2018 on the PGA Tour. But rust shouldn’t be a problem for the Swede, who has played three events so far on the European Tour, where he recorded two Top-10 finishes. With solid showings there, he now arrives at a course that he loves. In his last three visits to Copperhead, his worst finish is 11th. In these three visits he has a Strokes Gained Total of plus 28.67, and the only real surprise is that he hasn’t won here yet.

Stenson matches up well to all the necessary categories this week. In this field over his last 24 rounds he sits fifth in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green, fourth in Strokes Gained Putting, 13th in Strokes Gained Short Game and third in Strokes Gained Total.  Henrik’s Par-3 performance is also very impressive. Over his last 24 rounds, the Swede ranks eighth in Strokes Gained Total on Par 3s, and 13th in Strokes Gained on Par 3s in the 200-225 yard range.  As well as this, he is also number one for Strokes Gained on Par 5s at Copperhead.

Stenson has four Top 10 finishes in his last seven starts worldwide, including a win at the Wyndham Championship. With his game in good form, and coming to a track that he has played so well in the past it’s certainly a surprise to me that he is a top price of 22/1 here this week and one that I’m more than happy to take.

Looking a little down the board, it’s difficult to ignore the course form of both Ryan Moore and Kevin Na (45/1, DK Price $8,000). With both players around the same price it’s surprising that their DraftKings number is so different, and I feel the latter offers better value. Prior to last years missed cut here, Kevin had finishes of 22-10-2 at Copperhead. Last years missed cut doesn’t overly concern me either, as 2017 was a poor year by his standards and his second-place finish at the Genesis Open on his last start shows he’s back to playing some of his best golf again.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Na has enjoyed success at Copperhead. His lack of length off the tee isn’t a major issue here, and his accurate iron play combined with his world class short game have made it a happy hunting ground for the Las Vegas resident. The short game skills of Na seem to be in top form currently too. Over his past 12 rounds, Na sits 3rd in Strokes Gained Around the Green, 2nd in Strokes Gained Short Game and 10th in Strokes Gained Putting. Along with his brilliant touch around the greens, Na’s iron play is often overlooked. In this field he ranks 10th for Strokes Gained Approaching the Green over his last 24 rounds. At 45/1 and a DraftKings salary of $8,000 in particular, I feel he is being undervalued this week.

Where I feel Na is being undervalued in terms of his DraftKings price, Matt Kuchar (60/1, DK Price $8,200) is being overpriced in his betting odds. This maybe down to his performance last week in Mexico, where he performed poorly. But taking a closer look at his performance his demise last week can be put down to a shocking four days on the inconsistent Poa greens where Kuchar lost a whopping 7.4 strokes to the field. Coming back to a track he enjoys I certainly don’t expect to see a repeat of that this week.

Kuchar will be glad to be returning to Copperhead, where he has had four Top 15 finishes in his last seven starts. Over the past three years, Kuchar has lead the field in Strokes Gained Short Game and sits fifth for Strokes Gained Total. For his high standards he’ll be a little disappointed with his recent form, but he does have a top-five finish to his name this year at Phoenix and he has not missed a cut in almost 12 months. Returning to a course where he regularly plays well at, I feel his number this week is a little too high.

Finally, I couldn’t resist taking a punt on Si-Woo Kim (200/1, DK Price $7,200). The Korean is one of the most unpredictable players on Tour. But with two wins and one playoff loss on the PGA Tour over the last two years, he’s one that I am never afraid to back at a massive price. He has no form to speak of at Copperhead, with one missed cut from one start. But just like at TPC Sawgrass, the tight, tactical test could be one that suits the Korean’s game.

Kim has a Top 10 finish to his name this season that came at the Tournament of Champions, and for his last five events he has a positive strokes gained statistic in every main category except putting. He’s dropped over 12.5 strokes on the greens over his last six rounds, which is about as bad as it gets. But he’s the type of player who can pop at anytime, and at 200/1 it’s no harm in hoping it’s this week.If he does find his way into contention, at least we know that he’s not afraid to win.

Recommended Plays:

  • Henrik Stenson 18/1, DK Price $10,200
  • Kevin Na 45/1, DK Price $8,000
  • Matt Kuchar 60/1, DK Price $8,200
  • Si-Woo Kim 200/1, DK Price $7,200

Gianni is the Managing Editor at GolfWRX. He can be contacted at gianni@golfwrx.com

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Opinion & Analysis

Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers

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PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.

In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.

Check out the full Q&A below.

Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?

Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.

I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.

Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?

Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.

Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.

Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?

Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.

In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.

Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?

Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.

Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?

Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.

Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.

Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?

Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.

The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.

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Club Junkie

A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast

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In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.

We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.

To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.

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Opinion & Analysis

From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50

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This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?

As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.

I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.

Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.

I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.

It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.

So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.

1. Think About What You Want

Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.

Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.

For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.

You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.

The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.

But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.

None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.

2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work

One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.

You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.

You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.

I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.

Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.

I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.

3. Get Custom Fit

If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.

If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.

Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.

It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.

Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.

I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.

So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.

Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.

Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.

I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.

4. Distance and Strategy Matter

There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.

I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.

Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being

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