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Opinion & Analysis

An analysis of junior golf events, and how to build your summer schedule

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Much has been written about junior golf and scheduling. I wanted to go beyond the speculation and carefully examine the data; what does it take to win at the AJGA level? How hard are the golf courses? What are other juniors doing? What is the best advice for building a junior schedule? If you’re interested in these answers, then read on!

To help the junior golfer, their families and instructors, I took the time to crunch numbers behind the AJGA. Here’s what I found when examining the numbers for 2017:

Junior All Stars

For Junior All-stars we found the average winning per round score for boys was 69.97 and the average 10th place score per round was 72.95. The average yardage for these events was 6599 and the average course rating was 73.35. The average grad year of a winner was 2019. This means to win; the average boy had a tournament handicap of approximately +3.

For Junior All-stars for girls, we found the average winning score per round to be 71.1 and the average score per round for 10th place was 74.9. Girls on averaged played courses which were 5751 yards long with a course rating of 71.95. These means to win; the average girl would need a handicap of about scratch in tournaments. The average graduation year of a winner was 2020.5.

AJGA Previews

For Preview tournaments, we found that the boy winners averaged 72.81 per round. The 10th place boy averaged 76.6 per round. The average course was 6484 long with a course rating of 71.77.

For girls we found that the winners averaged 75.6 per round. The 10th place girl averaged 83.11 per round from an average yardage of 5610 with a course rating of 73.08.

AJGA Open Events

The average winning score per round was 69.46. The average 10th place score per round was 72.75 on an average length of 6849 and slope of 71.9. For girls the average winning score per round was 69.36. The average 10th place score per round was 74.34. The average course was 5769 yards with a slope of 70.7.

Note on Junior Girls Golf

In my previous article titled, “In-depth analysis of the early signing period for NCAA Division 1 Women’s Golf,” I note that the scoring differential of the players within the top 40 in the class was -4.01 compared to 9.26 which is the overall average for Division 1 Golf. The data collected here demonstrates these differences; winners at AJGA previews are scoring approximately 8 shots better than the person finishing 10th. While at AJGA Open events the number is closer to 5. This numbers highlight the crop of young talents women who are developing in junior women’s golf.

Rounds Under Par

  • In total there were 1698 rounds under par by boys in 2017
  • In total there were 454 rounds under par by girls in 2017

Please note that when these numbers are compared at random to years since 2003, and then adjusted for the number of events, it demonstrates that junior golf has not really gotten much better over the past 15 years. Instead it is about the same.

Major Takeaways from analysis of AJGA Events

  1. Remember that tournaments are not the only way to test your game; use random practice (and maybe even some responsible gambling) at your local course to simulate tournament conditions and learn to win
  2. Play a reasonable distance day to day: so many young people are playing golf at their home golf course from “the tips.” Our data suggests that 15-year-old boys should be practicing from about 6500 yards, while 15-year-old girls should be playing 5800 yards. 16-18-year-old boys should be practicing from about 6800 yards while 16-18-year-old girls should be practicing from about 6000 yards.
  3. Learn to Break Par: to win at Junior Golf, it is likely going to take the ability to break par (or come very close). Boy golfers serious about playing Division I golf must likely have home course handicaps in the range of +3 or better. This is also the case for girls who want to compete at the highest level of women’s golf. If you play at an extremely difficult course, don’t be afraid to play very short until you are able to shoot in the mid 60’s. Like any skill, breaking par takes time and practice.

I also took time to examine the schedules of 20 junior golfers. I looked at two groups; players ranked between 1-10 in Junior Golf Scoreboard and players ranked 500-510. When looking at the top 10 players in Junior Golf Scoreboard, they played an average of 6.3 events per year/18 total rounds compared to an average of 15 events/30 total rounds for players with an average rank of 505. This data is somewhat misleading because the best juniors are playing a schedule which include major amateur tournaments which are not recorded on Junior Golf Scoreboard and further analysis suggests that they are playing a total tournament schedule of about 15 events per year.

The gap in junior golf between the best players and everyone else is closing; the top 10 players in Junior Golf Score Board accumulated 10 wins, whereas the players ranked 500-510 had 8. Both are breaking par a considerable amount of time and have net scoring differentials at or below 0, making them approximately 72.5 averages or better in tournament golf. The differences to not are the best players are breaking par more often (50 percent of the time compared to 23 percent) and shooting in the 80’s far less (2/188 rounds compared to 30/308 rounds). However, the best players are also making specific schedule; only 20 percent of the top 10 junior golfers played an event in December or January (both played in South Florida), compared to 70 percent of players ranked between 500-510 who often played in worst climates during colder months which often result in poor scores.

The best players play a schedule where they have proper time to prepare for events and rarely play leading up to events. A typical schedule would include an event in February (typically an AJGA Invitational), an event in April (Sage Valley) and then no golf until mid-June or July when the players have had time to finish school and properly prepare for summer golf.

Taking time off is an important distinction in the scheduling of the very best players; they allow themselves time for not only rest but also for digestion of the skills and to build new skills. Too many junior golfers and their families have been taken by skillful marketing that suggests playing tournaments is very important for the scholarship process when the data and feedback from coaches suggest otherwise.

Based on the data collected and my own personal experience, here is some advice for junior golfers and their families trying to build a schedule:

  1. The schedule should have between 8-15 tournaments. It is not important to travel far and if money is tight, put money towards a membership at a course rather than events.
  2. For people north of the Mason-Dixon Line, apply the 2-month Rule; don’t play your first summer tournament until your home course has been open and playable for 2 months and you have played at least 20 rounds.
  3. Quality > Quantity. Choose a schedule which will allow you to not only properly prepare but compete during a time without distractions like major tests.
  4. Use high school golf to build competitive experience. Contrary to myth, almost all the best juniors play high school golf.
  5. Avoid tournaments in December and January; not only is the weather statistically the worst, but new NCAA rules do not allow coaches to recruit off campus during December.

B.M. Ryan, an entrepreneur and scientist, is a passionate golfer who loves his local muni. Armed with a keen interest in the game, a large network of friends in the industry, Brendan works to find and produce unique content for GolfWRX.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Dr Rodrigo Estonilo

    Jan 28, 2022 at 8:37 pm

    Thanks much for excellent advice per timing, prescriptions (timepreferences vs mustschedules) on tours! Very intelligent perspectives on golf performance!

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Opinion & Analysis

Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers

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PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.

In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.

Check out the full Q&A below.

Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?

Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.

I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.

Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?

Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.

Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.

Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?

Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.

In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.

Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?

Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.

Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?

Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.

Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.

Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?

Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.

The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.

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Club Junkie

A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast

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In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.

We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.

To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.

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Opinion & Analysis

From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50

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This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?

As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.

I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.

Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.

I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.

It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.

So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.

1. Think About What You Want

Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.

Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.

For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.

You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.

The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.

But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.

None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.

2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work

One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.

You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.

You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.

I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.

Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.

I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.

3. Get Custom Fit

If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.

If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.

Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.

It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.

Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.

I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.

So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.

Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.

Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.

I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.

4. Distance and Strategy Matter

There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.

I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.

Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being

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