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Opinion & Analysis

The 23 players who can win the Masters

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Over the past 10 Masters, I have created a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predictive outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 20-24 players.

In that time I have correctly shortlisted every champion. In last year’s Masters, right of the 11 players that finished in the top-10 were shortlisted. The closest a non-shortlisted player came to winning was Corey Conners’ T6 finish; seven strokes from the winner Scottie Scheffler.

If you’re watching at home, the “critical holes” that will likely determine the top finishers will be holes No. 8, 11, 13, and 15. With the 13th hole being lengthened this year I do not expect the hole to lose any mathematical importance for the top finishers.

Moving on to the tournament, I will address the elephant in the room with the LIV Tour players. The LIV Tour does not have ShotLink data, so many of the measures we can use to filter out players do not apply. Therefore I have to perform guesswork based on their most recent performances on the PGA Tour as well as how well the player has played on the LIV Tour. I won’t go over each player, but here are the LIV Tour players I have filtered out.

  • Abraham Ancer
  • Bryson DeChambeau
  • Sergio Garcia
  • Talor Gooch
  • Jason Kokrak
  • Phil Mickelson
  • Kevin Na
  • Joaquin Niemann
  • Louis Oosthuizen
  • Thomas Pieters
  • Patrick Reed
  • Charl Schwartzel
  • Harold Varner III
  • Bubba Watson

Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934 followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935.

  • Sam Bennett (a)
  • Ben Carr (a)
  • Harrison Crowe (a)
  • Mateo Fernandez de Oliveria (a)
  • Ryan Fox
  • Kazuki Higa (a)
  • Tom Kim
  • Kurt Kitayama
  • Matthew McClean (a)
  • Adrian Meronk
  • Taylor Moore
  • Mito Pereira
  • Aldrich Potgieter (a)
  • Gordon Sargent (a)
  • Adam Svensson
  • Sahith Theegala

Out of the first time invitees the data projects Kurt Kitayama as the favorite to finish best.

I also filter out old Masters champions that I do not believe can get into contention anymore.

  • Fred Couples
  • Bernhard Langer
  • Sandy Lyle
  • Larry Mize
  • Jose Maria Olazabal
  • Vijay Singh
  • Mike Weir

Recency has a strong predictive value for player performance and missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players that miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week. Therefore I filter out any player(s) that missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.

  • Tyrrell Hatton

And let’s filter out those players that have never made the cut at the Masters as outside of Zoeller, Horton Smith and Sarazen mentioned previously.

  • Sam Burns
  • K.H. Lee
  • J.T. Poston
  • Cameron Young

A Tradition Unlike Any Other…

Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par 5s more like par 4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.

When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par 5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par 5s, his strength.

The weather report this week is calling for rain on Friday with rain and cooler temperatures on the weekend. While it depends on the course, typically softer conditions favor longer hitters. However, that’s on your standard golf courses with rough and fairways roughly 30 yards wide. On those courses the longer hitters start to hit more fairways and that reduces the standard deviation of hit fairway percentage between the field. Augusta National has very little rough. That means the standard deviation of hit fairway percentage is already low and it still favors the longer hitter because they are leaving themselves with shorter approach shots from the same type of lie.

The key hole will likely be the par-5 13th. It was has been a critical hole on the course every year that I have posted this column. Now it has lengthened by 37 yards. If the weather conditions prevent the hole from being reachable in two shots, that will favor the shorter and more accurate ballstrikers that are adept from 75-125 yard like Zach Johnson back in 2007.

Having said all of that, I will stick with the filters I have used due to the the weather forecast not calling for a lot of wind and at this point it’s impossible to predict how the par-5 13th hole will play.

So I will rule out the golfers that are hitting the ball too short to win.

  • Russell Henley
  • Tom Hoge
  • Billy Horschel
  • Zach Johnson
  • Chris Kirk
  • Kevin Kisner
  • Francesco Molinari
  • Collin Morikawa
  • Sepp Straka

Out of this group, the data likes Tom Hoge the best. He currently ranks 4th in Red Zone (175-225 yards) play and 31st form the Green Zone (75-125 yards) and is one of the best 3-wood performers on Tour. Morikawa isn’t quite as sharp as he has been the in the past as he ranks 43rd from the Red Zone and 88th from Green Zone. But if he regains his old form these weather conditions may play nicely in his favor.

Last year I created a new formula to better determine ball height. As I’ve written in each Masters picks post, low ball hitters tend to not fare well at Augusta. Last year I had nine players filtered out for low trajectory and the best finisher was Corey Conners at T6. Danny Willett also finished T12, but the other seven low ball filtered players didn’t do much.

  • Brian Harman
  • Max Homa
  • Seamus Power
  • Alex Noren
  • Si Woo Kim

The big shocker is Homa, the fifth ranked player in the world. Typically has has been a high ball hitter, but this season he has dramatically lowered his ball flight. The weather conditions may help particularly if the greens soften and hold better.. Currently he ranks sixth in Red Zone play and first in Green Zone play, so I am not exactly confident in filtering him from winning.

Last season I had 14 players filtered out for poor Red Zone play. 8 of the 14 players either missed the cut or withdrew from the tournament. Rory McIlroy finished 2nd, but needed a final round 64 to do so. Other than that, Charl Schwartzel finished t-10th and the rest either missed the cut or didn’t do much of anything.

So, let’s filter out those players.

  • Cameron Champ
  • Harris English
  • Tommy Fleetwood
  • Mackenzie Hughes
  • Min-Woo Lee
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Adam Scott
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Danny Willett

That leaves 23 players that can win the Masters:

  • Keegan Bradley (150/1)
  • Patrick Cantlay (20/1)
  • Corey Conners (40/1)
  • Jason Day (25/1)
  • Tony Finau (25/1)
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (50/1)
  • Viktor Hovland (40/1)
  • Sungjae Im (40/1)
  • Dustin Johnson (25/1)
  • Brooks Koepka (33/1)
  • Shane Lowry (66/1)
  • Rory McIlroy (7/1)
  • Keith Mitchell (125/1)
  • Jon Rahm (10/1)
  • Justin Rose (66/1)
  • Xander Schauffele (25/1)
  • Scottie Scheffler (7/1)
  • Cameron Smith (25/1)
  • Scott Stallings (500/1)
  • Justin Thomas (22/1)
  • Gary Woodland (250/1)
  • Tiger Woods (80/1)
  • Will Zalatoris (33/1)

My top-10 picks are as follows:

  • Rory McIlroy (7/1)
  • Scottie Scheffler (7/1)
  • Jon Rahm (10/1)
  • Tony Finau (25/1)
  • Dustin Johnson (25/1)
  • Brooks Koepka (33/1)
  • Corey Conners (40/1)
  • Shane Lowry (66/1)
  • Keith Mitchell (125/1)
  • Keegan Bradley (150/1)

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2018 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack. GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014 Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

11 Comments

11 Comments

  1. Pingback: Is this the real reason behind Bryson DeChambeau’s total loss of form? – GolfWRX

  2. jamho3

    Apr 7, 2023 at 9:54 pm

    @Rich I may not LOVE your cowboys, but this and your rule of 12 vid are spectacular. #respect

  3. NMBob

    Apr 5, 2023 at 10:44 am

    Would not have just dropped Livs Reed, a green jacket holder, or Kokrak who finished T14 last year.

    • Rich Hunt

      Apr 5, 2023 at 11:32 am

      Unfortunately without any data it’s a guessing game. However, Reed has lost a ton of distance since his win and has been hitting the ball considerably lower. Kokrak hasn’t been playing well. That could be due to something like putting which isn’t as important at Augusta as people think as many past Masters champions were putting poorly the year they won.

  4. Boaty McBoatface

    Apr 5, 2023 at 10:34 am

    PReed has been consistently playing solid all year, without fail. He just keeps making boatloads of birdies, so you’re wrong to leave him out. And he’s a past champion, and he plays mostly a draw, and he can control his ball flight really well, which is what you need at Augusta.

  5. JJM1112

    Apr 5, 2023 at 10:31 am

    I look forward to this article each year, love the rationale. Curious where the green zone/red zone data is from. Looking at PGATour.com, Morikawa is 8th from 175-200 yards and 9th from 200-225. Not sure how that gets him to 43rd in red zone in the article but seems to be better than that to me.

    • Rich Hunt

      Apr 5, 2023 at 11:34 am

      1. Red Zone play includes proximity to the cup.
      2. It also includes shots from the rough
      3. It’s also adjusted for schedule

  6. Masters ?

    Apr 5, 2023 at 9:45 am

    How do you not have Xander filtered out for hitting it too low? Look at his “tournament only” performance for apex height. He’s significantly low ball flight lower than the rest of the field. Not a single one of the designated events was he anything less than in the red and lower.

    • Rich Hunt

      Apr 5, 2023 at 11:40 am

      His Max Height with the driver is adjusted for schedule (players hit it higher or lower on average depending on the course) is at 119th, just high enough. While Tour pros tend to hit all of their clubs the same height, I also went on Tracker2 and looked at Trackman data for Max Height on par-3’s and Xander ranks 100th out of 208 golfers. The other metrics like launch and hang time were enough to have Xander pass thru the filter by a narrow margin.

      • Masters ?

        Apr 6, 2023 at 11:55 am

        Where do you get Tracker2 and Trackman data from? Is there a link to where you view each player?

  7. Masters ?

    Apr 5, 2023 at 9:43 am

    How do you not have Xander filtered out for hitting it too low? Look at his “tournament only” performance for apex height. He’s significantly low ball flight lower than the rest of the field. Not a single one of the designated events was he anything less than in the red and lower.

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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