Opinion & Analysis
The 23 players who can win the Masters
Over the past 10 Masters, I have created a filtering process to help determine the players who are most likely to win the green jacket based on criteria that have strongly predictive outcomes at Augusta. I usually get the list down to roughly 20-24 players.
In that time I have correctly shortlisted every champion. In last year’s Masters, right of the 11 players that finished in the top-10 were shortlisted. The closest a non-shortlisted player came to winning was Corey Conners’ T6 finish; seven strokes from the winner Scottie Scheffler.
If you’re watching at home, the “critical holes” that will likely determine the top finishers will be holes No. 8, 11, 13, and 15. With the 13th hole being lengthened this year I do not expect the hole to lose any mathematical importance for the top finishers.
Moving on to the tournament, I will address the elephant in the room with the LIV Tour players. The LIV Tour does not have ShotLink data, so many of the measures we can use to filter out players do not apply. Therefore I have to perform guesswork based on their most recent performances on the PGA Tour as well as how well the player has played on the LIV Tour. I won’t go over each player, but here are the LIV Tour players I have filtered out.
- Abraham Ancer
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Sergio Garcia
- Talor Gooch
- Jason Kokrak
- Phil Mickelson
- Kevin Na
- Joaquin Niemann
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Thomas Pieters
- Patrick Reed
- Charl Schwartzel
- Harold Varner III
- Bubba Watson
Next, I filtered out the amateurs and all first-time professional attendees. The Masters has only been won three times by a first-time attendee: Fuzzy Zoeller was the last to win in 1979. Prior to Zoeller though, it was Horton Smith in the inaugural event in 1934 followed by Gene Sarazen in 1935.
- Sam Bennett (a)
- Ben Carr (a)
- Harrison Crowe (a)
- Mateo Fernandez de Oliveria (a)
- Ryan Fox
- Kazuki Higa (a)
- Tom Kim
- Kurt Kitayama
- Matthew McClean (a)
- Adrian Meronk
- Taylor Moore
- Mito Pereira
- Aldrich Potgieter (a)
- Gordon Sargent (a)
- Adam Svensson
- Sahith Theegala
Out of the first time invitees the data projects Kurt Kitayama as the favorite to finish best.
I also filter out old Masters champions that I do not believe can get into contention anymore.
- Fred Couples
- Bernhard Langer
- Sandy Lyle
- Larry Mize
- Jose Maria Olazabal
- Vijay Singh
- Mike Weir
Recency has a strong predictive value for player performance and missing the cut in the event in the prior week greatly reduces the likelihood of winning the following week compared to players that miss the cut, take a week off, and then play the following week. Therefore I filter out any player(s) that missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open last week.
- Tyrrell Hatton
And let’s filter out those players that have never made the cut at the Masters as outside of Zoeller, Horton Smith and Sarazen mentioned previously.
- Sam Burns
- K.H. Lee
- J.T. Poston
- Cameron Young
A Tradition Unlike Any Other…
Every year I do my Masters picks, it’s always pointed out that I do not pick former Masters Champion Zach Johnson due to his lack of length off the tee. Augusta National greatly favors long-ball hitters. They can play the par 5s more like par 4s, and typically the longer hitters can also hit the ball higher so they can get their long approach shots to hold the green more easily.
When Johnson won the Masters in 2007, the event featured record-low temperatures in the mid-40s and wind gusts of 33 mph. This made it very hard for any player to reach the par 5s in two shots and allowed Johnson to get into a wedge contest on the par 5s, his strength.
The weather report this week is calling for rain on Friday with rain and cooler temperatures on the weekend. While it depends on the course, typically softer conditions favor longer hitters. However, that’s on your standard golf courses with rough and fairways roughly 30 yards wide. On those courses the longer hitters start to hit more fairways and that reduces the standard deviation of hit fairway percentage between the field. Augusta National has very little rough. That means the standard deviation of hit fairway percentage is already low and it still favors the longer hitter because they are leaving themselves with shorter approach shots from the same type of lie.
The key hole will likely be the par-5 13th. It was has been a critical hole on the course every year that I have posted this column. Now it has lengthened by 37 yards. If the weather conditions prevent the hole from being reachable in two shots, that will favor the shorter and more accurate ballstrikers that are adept from 75-125 yard like Zach Johnson back in 2007.
Having said all of that, I will stick with the filters I have used due to the the weather forecast not calling for a lot of wind and at this point it’s impossible to predict how the par-5 13th hole will play.
So I will rule out the golfers that are hitting the ball too short to win.
- Russell Henley
- Tom Hoge
- Billy Horschel
- Zach Johnson
- Chris Kirk
- Kevin Kisner
- Francesco Molinari
- Collin Morikawa
- Sepp Straka
Out of this group, the data likes Tom Hoge the best. He currently ranks 4th in Red Zone (175-225 yards) play and 31st form the Green Zone (75-125 yards) and is one of the best 3-wood performers on Tour. Morikawa isn’t quite as sharp as he has been the in the past as he ranks 43rd from the Red Zone and 88th from Green Zone. But if he regains his old form these weather conditions may play nicely in his favor.
Last year I created a new formula to better determine ball height. As I’ve written in each Masters picks post, low ball hitters tend to not fare well at Augusta. Last year I had nine players filtered out for low trajectory and the best finisher was Corey Conners at T6. Danny Willett also finished T12, but the other seven low ball filtered players didn’t do much.
- Brian Harman
- Max Homa
- Seamus Power
- Alex Noren
- Si Woo Kim
The big shocker is Homa, the fifth ranked player in the world. Typically has has been a high ball hitter, but this season he has dramatically lowered his ball flight. The weather conditions may help particularly if the greens soften and hold better.. Currently he ranks sixth in Red Zone play and first in Green Zone play, so I am not exactly confident in filtering him from winning.
Last season I had 14 players filtered out for poor Red Zone play. 8 of the 14 players either missed the cut or withdrew from the tournament. Rory McIlroy finished 2nd, but needed a final round 64 to do so. Other than that, Charl Schwartzel finished t-10th and the rest either missed the cut or didn’t do much of anything.
So, let’s filter out those players.
- Cameron Champ
- Harris English
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Mackenzie Hughes
- Min-Woo Lee
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Adam Scott
- Jordan Spieth
- Danny Willett
That leaves 23 players that can win the Masters:
- Keegan Bradley (150/1)
- Patrick Cantlay (20/1)
- Corey Conners (40/1)
- Jason Day (25/1)
- Tony Finau (25/1)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (50/1)
- Viktor Hovland (40/1)
- Sungjae Im (40/1)
- Dustin Johnson (25/1)
- Brooks Koepka (33/1)
- Shane Lowry (66/1)
- Rory McIlroy (7/1)
- Keith Mitchell (125/1)
- Jon Rahm (10/1)
- Justin Rose (66/1)
- Xander Schauffele (25/1)
- Scottie Scheffler (7/1)
- Cameron Smith (25/1)
- Scott Stallings (500/1)
- Justin Thomas (22/1)
- Gary Woodland (250/1)
- Tiger Woods (80/1)
- Will Zalatoris (33/1)
My top-10 picks are as follows:
- Rory McIlroy (7/1)
- Scottie Scheffler (7/1)
- Jon Rahm (10/1)
- Tony Finau (25/1)
- Dustin Johnson (25/1)
- Brooks Koepka (33/1)
- Corey Conners (40/1)
- Shane Lowry (66/1)
- Keith Mitchell (125/1)
- Keegan Bradley (150/1)
Opinion & Analysis
Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers
PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.
In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.
Check out the full Q&A below.
Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?
Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.
I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.
Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?
Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.
Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.
Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?
Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.
In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.
Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?
Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.
Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?
Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.
Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.
Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?
Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.
The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.
Club Junkie
A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast
In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.
We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.
To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.
Opinion & Analysis
From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50
This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?
As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.
I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.
Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.
I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.
It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.
So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.
1. Think About What You Want
Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.
Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.
For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.
You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.
The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.
But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.
None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.
2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work
One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.
You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.
You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.
I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.
Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.
I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.
3. Get Custom Fit
If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.
If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.
Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.
It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.
Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.
I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.
So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.
Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.
Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.
I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.
4. Distance and Strategy Matter
There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.
I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.
Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being
-
Equipment2 weeks agoJustin Rose WITB 2026 (April): Full WITB breakdown with new McLaren irons
-
Equipment1 week agoWhat’s the story behind Webb Simpson’s custom-stamped irons?
-
Equipment2 weeks agoCadillac Championship Tour Report: Spieth’s sizable changes, McLaren Golf launches, and more
-
Whats in the Bag3 days agoKristoffer Reitan’s winning WITB: 2026 Truist Championship
-
Whats in the Bag1 week agoCameron Young’s winning WITB: 2026 Cadillac Championship
-
Whats in the Bag3 weeks agoNelly Korda WITB 2026 (April)
-
Equipment2 weeks agoJustin Rose on the switch to McLaren Golf, learnings from previous equipment moves
-
Tour Photo Galleries2 weeks agoPhotos from the 2026 Cadillac Championship

Pingback: Is this the real reason behind Bryson DeChambeau’s total loss of form? – GolfWRX
jamho3
Apr 7, 2023 at 9:54 pm
@Rich I may not LOVE your cowboys, but this and your rule of 12 vid are spectacular. #respect
NMBob
Apr 5, 2023 at 10:44 am
Would not have just dropped Livs Reed, a green jacket holder, or Kokrak who finished T14 last year.
Rich Hunt
Apr 5, 2023 at 11:32 am
Unfortunately without any data it’s a guessing game. However, Reed has lost a ton of distance since his win and has been hitting the ball considerably lower. Kokrak hasn’t been playing well. That could be due to something like putting which isn’t as important at Augusta as people think as many past Masters champions were putting poorly the year they won.
Boaty McBoatface
Apr 5, 2023 at 10:34 am
PReed has been consistently playing solid all year, without fail. He just keeps making boatloads of birdies, so you’re wrong to leave him out. And he’s a past champion, and he plays mostly a draw, and he can control his ball flight really well, which is what you need at Augusta.
JJM1112
Apr 5, 2023 at 10:31 am
I look forward to this article each year, love the rationale. Curious where the green zone/red zone data is from. Looking at PGATour.com, Morikawa is 8th from 175-200 yards and 9th from 200-225. Not sure how that gets him to 43rd in red zone in the article but seems to be better than that to me.
Rich Hunt
Apr 5, 2023 at 11:34 am
1. Red Zone play includes proximity to the cup.
2. It also includes shots from the rough
3. It’s also adjusted for schedule
Masters ?
Apr 5, 2023 at 9:45 am
How do you not have Xander filtered out for hitting it too low? Look at his “tournament only” performance for apex height. He’s significantly low ball flight lower than the rest of the field. Not a single one of the designated events was he anything less than in the red and lower.
Rich Hunt
Apr 5, 2023 at 11:40 am
His Max Height with the driver is adjusted for schedule (players hit it higher or lower on average depending on the course) is at 119th, just high enough. While Tour pros tend to hit all of their clubs the same height, I also went on Tracker2 and looked at Trackman data for Max Height on par-3’s and Xander ranks 100th out of 208 golfers. The other metrics like launch and hang time were enough to have Xander pass thru the filter by a narrow margin.
Masters ?
Apr 6, 2023 at 11:55 am
Where do you get Tracker2 and Trackman data from? Is there a link to where you view each player?
Masters ?
Apr 5, 2023 at 9:43 am
How do you not have Xander filtered out for hitting it too low? Look at his “tournament only” performance for apex height. He’s significantly low ball flight lower than the rest of the field. Not a single one of the designated events was he anything less than in the red and lower.