The fantasy golf equivalent of a bad beat is what played out in the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Start Bubba Watson, hold Adam Scott on the bench. Watson, who entered in the best form of his career, proceeded to shoot a horrendous 11-over par 83. Scott, who hadn’t been burning up courses in weeks prior, blisters Bay Hill for a 10-under, course-record 62. Oh, and then Watson withdraws on top of it for . . . allergies. Right. Allergic to [insert in comments below].

This doesn’t mean you or I or anyone else is bad at fantasy golf selections. It just means that’s golf. Hopefully you didn’t get burned too bad by what is tantamount to an aberration. You won’t see too many 21-shot differences from top-tier golfers.

While Scott initially went for the jugular with Tiger out, he also showed how you still need to play your best over four days to win a tournament. He didn’t do it and Matt Every did. Scott missed out becoming No. 1 in the Official World Golf Rankings for the first time in his peaking career, but Every capitalized his first PGA Tour victory.

There are several nuances for this week’s Valero Texas Open, most notably it’s the last chance for many to get into the Masters. Martin Laird won last year for his third Tour win, using a final-round 63 to get past Rory McIlroy and Billy Horschel. Time to break down this year’s fantasy golf selections in this week’s edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

The Valero Texas Open is a great spot to bust out of a slump. That was Martin Laird’s takeaway last year at TPC San Antonio’s AT&T Oaks Course after an 11-month struggle on Tour. With many big names resting up for the Masters in two weeks, don’t be surprised to see someone off the beaten trail make a grab at the spoils. For those of you in Yahoo leagues, this is the last week of the winter segment. If you’re leading, play it conservative (and hopefully you have a large enough lead to do so without fear), but if you’re behind, now’s a good time to play some riskier selections to make up ground. If you fail miserably, that’s OK because you have the whole spring segment to push back towards the overall. Here’s some risky properties who really are just a tier below in terms of consistency.

Charley Hoffman

Hoffman is coming off a T3 last year, which matches up pretty well from last year (and years prior) to this season in terms of when in the year he begins to heat up. He also has a T2 in 2011 and two other T13’s at TPC San Antonio. The UNLV alum makes a living hitting greens and making putts and his driving is effectively average. We all know he can be a low scorer for a round, and when he does, he’s usually a strong bet to be in the top 10.

Justin Leonard

I’m putting a strong emphasis on driving accuracy this week since TPC San Antonio’s AT&T Oaks course puts a premium on hitting narrow fairways or risk clubbing out of stuff you don’t want to get near without a pick axe and weedwacker (see: Na, Kevin). Three-time Valero Texas Open champion Leonard gets a nod for sitting at 22nd in driving accuracy and 23rd in strokes gained putting, even if his his last two outings have been sub-par made cuts. I also like that when he won in back-to-back years of 2000-01, he followed it up six years later with another win. He does have three top-10s this year, so don’t think he can’t contend. Even with a bad tournament, he should finish around 30th. By the numbers, his upside is huge.

Jason Kokrak

Kokrak is coming off the best showing of his season with a solo fourth finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He finished T15 last year, but did miss the cut the year before. While he hasn’t been great off the tee, he’s been much better in hitting greens and making putts, especially to score. He has a lot of incentive to win too, trying to get his first victory and secure a spot in the Masters. Sitting at No. 97 in the OWGR, he’ll need a superb showing to gain enough to get inside the top 50.

Fredrik Jacobson

The best thing for gamers coming out of last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational was Jacobson’s return to form as a premier putter on Tour. It comes as just the right time since the Swede is usually a sure bet to be in the top 20 at the Texas Open. Jacobson has been inside that number his last four trips to San Antonio, including a T5 in 2011 and solo second in 2010, so coming on the heels of T12, T20 and T10 finishes in his last three starts, he’s a strong play this week.

Charles Howell III

Message boards are always clamoring about Howell III and when, if ever, he’ll return to the winner’s circle. It’s been since 2007’s Nissan Open that he did win, and he’s likely in the field to grab a spot in the Masters. For that, he’ll need to improve from No. 73 OWGR to play in his hometown of Augusta. He last played the TPC San Antonio in 2011 and finished solo eighth. Previous to that he played in ’08 and shot 68-67-68-71, which ended up T36. He’s motivated, hits greens with a high frequency, makes birdies and the tournament is wide open for the taking. Nice upside to his selection.

REWARD

In many ways the chalk is scary this week. Other than one two-time winner of this event, the rest are underwhelming in Texas. But clearly they are the best golfers in the field. That level of expertise cannot be avoided in the selection process, but it doesn’t make it a comfortable four days if you’re trying to hold a lead. That said, I trust that their games are in solid enough form to make the cut, which is hugely important because the only way you could get passed is by a stroke of bad luck. Here’s a look at the Rewards, albeit with a touch of hesitation.

Zach Johnson

One no-brainer this week is Johnson. I’d go so far as to say he should be on every roster this week regardless of being ahead or behind. He won in ’08 and ’09, is third on Tour in driving accuracy, 10th in GIR and ninth in scoring average. His meticulous approach to navigating a course should serve him well here. He also has yet to miss a cut this season in racking up a couple wins and two other top-10s.

Matt Kuchar 

Kuchar usually starts the year strong and then cools during the Florida swing. Other than an opening-round 74 last year, he finished strong enough for a T22. The year before, a T13. Statistically speaking, he’s been average in 2014, but he has excelled on par-5’s, which is where Laird performed so well last year en route to a win. He’s too good not to compete, plus Yahoo group A is soft this week.

Jordan Spieth

A Texas native, albeit to the north, Spieth missed the cut last year in his rookie-season debut. I don’t expect that again, not with the way he gains strokes putting. If he hits fairways, he’ll be tough to beat. A T20 at the Valspar Championship was a promising sign of returning to killer form week in and week out. Love his confidence every time he tees off.

Jim Furyk

Another where a top-20 at the Valspar Championship was a positive turn, Furyk sets up as a strong play across all leagues for his general consistency. He finished tied for third last year here, which likely speaks to his accuracy off the tee. He’s 25th this season in that category, and while he was in better form last year, he’s still more than capable of being that same golfer again this week.

Phil Mickelson

Who better to bust out of a slump than Phil? Normally, he sets himself up for the Masters with a strong showing at the Shell Houston Open, which is next week. I thought about putting him in as a Risk because he’s been so off this year and I think a lot of gamers will shy away this week and play him next. But he’s no doubt been practicing hard since Doral to be ready for the year’s first major. His issue over the last few years is focus, and if he’s adding a Tour stop to his schedule like he is this week, you can believe he’s focused on playing well. The only issue, as always, is will he spray it around with the driver and put a number up that ruins his tournament?

RUIN

No, Billy Horschel hasn’t made the previous two lists because he’s being slotted as Ruin. Call him a wildcard or sleeper (he’s ninth in driving accuracy), if you must. I think the Ruin picks are very interesting this week because they could slide by under your radar quite easily and wind up in your lineup by mistake.

Jimmy Walker

While he tied for third in 2010, has three recent wins and sits at No. 1 in the FedEx Cup standings, he is second to last in driving accuracy on Tour. His scoring average is nice, but desert courses can make you pay for your driving mistakes. His total driving is a little better, but not by much. He’s excelled once he’s on the green, but those little nuances could be the difference in a field like this. He was T31 last year and MC’d in ’11 and ’12. His best finish is a T19 in ’08 when the tournament was being played at the end of the year. For what you’re expecting, I think you can do better.

Ernie Els

Another bad example of driving accuracy, Els was also in the group tied with Walker in ’10. Coming off a T52 and MC, Els is playing TPC San Antonio for the first time since that T3, which is his only time ever playing the course. I like that he’s 21st in strokes gained putting, but he’s been just as bad at hitting greens as he is with fairways. That is not a good combination this week.

Aaron Baddeley

The last member of 2010’s threesome of T3 finishers, Baddeley is still struggling to regain a measure of consistency following a horrendous 2013 season. He closed his API with a round of 77, dropping him to T35. He missed the cut at the Valspar. While his past history shows other results here as T15, T26 and solo fifth, he’s played the course sporadically and is lacking in confidence this time. Again, his strokes gained putting is great at fourth, but his driving accuracy and GIR is at the very bottom of Tour pros.

Nicolas Colsaerts

After making the European Ryder Cup team, Colsaerts is beginning to look more and more like a flash in the pan. Yet another who can’t hit the fairway off the tee in regularity, he has just one top-20 this season and is coming off two bad tournaments heading into a course he’s never played. He did not do well at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, if you’re trying to compare topography.

Brooks Koepka 

Koepka sits 75th in the OWGR. He’s also on his last of seven sponsor’s exemptions while trying to gain Special Temporary Membership (STM) on Tour. In order to do so, he’ll need to finish solo 32nd or better at the Valero Texas Open. Statistically speaking, he’s not doing bad at all, but he’s under a lot of pressure to perform. Too much of a gamble in this scenario.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the Valero Texas Open, discus fantasy selections or get amped about the upcoming Masters. Good luck!

This week’s picks

Yahoo!

Group A: M. Kuchar (S), P. Mickelson

Group B: J. Furyk (S), F. Jacobson (S), Z. Johnson, J. Spieth

Group C: C. Hoffman (S), J. Senden)

(Last week: 133 points; Winter segment: 1,819; Rank: 3,100 – 96th percentile)

PGATour.com

Z. Johnson, M. Kuchar, J. Furyk, F. Jacobson

(Last week: 208 points; Season: 3,271; Rank: 4,482)

Golf Channel

Group 1: Z. Johnson

Group 2: C. Hoffman

Group 3: J. Leonard

Group 4: B. Curtis

(Last week: $61,651; Season: $6,921,780; Mulligan: $28,666; Rank: 6,212 of 33,381)