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Opinion & Analysis

Fantasy Preview: 2018 Valspar Championship

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After a thrilling four days in Mexico, it’s back to the United States this week for the Valspar Championship. This year’s edition will play host to its strongest field yet, with Jordan Spieth, Rory Mcilroy, Tiger Woods, and Sergio Garcia just some of the big names who are ready to tackle the tricky test that Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) always provides.

Copperhead is a Par 71 that plays over 7,300 yards, with tight tree lined fairways and greens that are difficult to hit. Despite its length, it’s a second shot golf course, so strong iron play is imperative this week. Short game skills are always important around here too, as is par 3 and par-5 performance. There are five long par 3s on this course which always play extremely difficult, and four par 5s which should offer players some respite. Last year, Adam Hadwin claimed his maiden win on the PGA Tour here, posting 14-under par to defeat Patrick Cantlay by one stroke.

Selected Tournament Odds (via Bet365)

  • Jordan Spieth 17/2
  • Rory Mcilroy 14/1
  • Sergio Garcia 16/1
  • Justin Rose 18/1
  • Henrik Stenson 18/1
  • Paul Casey 25/1
  • Tony Finau 28/1

To qualify my statement that this is a second shot golf course, Frank Nobilo of Golf Channel has stated that he would be shocked if Tiger Woods hit driver more than twice each day this week. At Copperhead, getting the ball in play in the correct part of the fairway in order to attack the pins will be the strategy players have in mind. This will encourage any Tiger backers too, as the driver has been the one club stifling him this year. But with Bay Hill and Augusta to come next for Woods, I’m going to sit tight this week and see if he can build on what was a very encouraging display at the Honda Classic.

Instead, I’m happy to take a piece of Henrik Stenson (18/1, DK Price $10,200) who is making his first start of 2018 on the PGA Tour. But rust shouldn’t be a problem for the Swede, who has played three events so far on the European Tour, where he recorded two Top-10 finishes. With solid showings there, he now arrives at a course that he loves. In his last three visits to Copperhead, his worst finish is 11th. In these three visits he has a Strokes Gained Total of plus 28.67, and the only real surprise is that he hasn’t won here yet.

Stenson matches up well to all the necessary categories this week. In this field over his last 24 rounds he sits fifth in Strokes Gained Approaching the Green, fourth in Strokes Gained Putting, 13th in Strokes Gained Short Game and third in Strokes Gained Total.  Henrik’s Par-3 performance is also very impressive. Over his last 24 rounds, the Swede ranks eighth in Strokes Gained Total on Par 3s, and 13th in Strokes Gained on Par 3s in the 200-225 yard range.  As well as this, he is also number one for Strokes Gained on Par 5s at Copperhead.

Stenson has four Top 10 finishes in his last seven starts worldwide, including a win at the Wyndham Championship. With his game in good form, and coming to a track that he has played so well in the past it’s certainly a surprise to me that he is a top price of 22/1 here this week and one that I’m more than happy to take.

Looking a little down the board, it’s difficult to ignore the course form of both Ryan Moore and Kevin Na (45/1, DK Price $8,000). With both players around the same price it’s surprising that their DraftKings number is so different, and I feel the latter offers better value. Prior to last years missed cut here, Kevin had finishes of 22-10-2 at Copperhead. Last years missed cut doesn’t overly concern me either, as 2017 was a poor year by his standards and his second-place finish at the Genesis Open on his last start shows he’s back to playing some of his best golf again.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Na has enjoyed success at Copperhead. His lack of length off the tee isn’t a major issue here, and his accurate iron play combined with his world class short game have made it a happy hunting ground for the Las Vegas resident. The short game skills of Na seem to be in top form currently too. Over his past 12 rounds, Na sits 3rd in Strokes Gained Around the Green, 2nd in Strokes Gained Short Game and 10th in Strokes Gained Putting. Along with his brilliant touch around the greens, Na’s iron play is often overlooked. In this field he ranks 10th for Strokes Gained Approaching the Green over his last 24 rounds. At 45/1 and a DraftKings salary of $8,000 in particular, I feel he is being undervalued this week.

Where I feel Na is being undervalued in terms of his DraftKings price, Matt Kuchar (60/1, DK Price $8,200) is being overpriced in his betting odds. This maybe down to his performance last week in Mexico, where he performed poorly. But taking a closer look at his performance his demise last week can be put down to a shocking four days on the inconsistent Poa greens where Kuchar lost a whopping 7.4 strokes to the field. Coming back to a track he enjoys I certainly don’t expect to see a repeat of that this week.

Kuchar will be glad to be returning to Copperhead, where he has had four Top 15 finishes in his last seven starts. Over the past three years, Kuchar has lead the field in Strokes Gained Short Game and sits fifth for Strokes Gained Total. For his high standards he’ll be a little disappointed with his recent form, but he does have a top-five finish to his name this year at Phoenix and he has not missed a cut in almost 12 months. Returning to a course where he regularly plays well at, I feel his number this week is a little too high.

Finally, I couldn’t resist taking a punt on Si-Woo Kim (200/1, DK Price $7,200). The Korean is one of the most unpredictable players on Tour. But with two wins and one playoff loss on the PGA Tour over the last two years, he’s one that I am never afraid to back at a massive price. He has no form to speak of at Copperhead, with one missed cut from one start. But just like at TPC Sawgrass, the tight, tactical test could be one that suits the Korean’s game.

Kim has a Top 10 finish to his name this season that came at the Tournament of Champions, and for his last five events he has a positive strokes gained statistic in every main category except putting. He’s dropped over 12.5 strokes on the greens over his last six rounds, which is about as bad as it gets. But he’s the type of player who can pop at anytime, and at 200/1 it’s no harm in hoping it’s this week.If he does find his way into contention, at least we know that he’s not afraid to win.

Recommended Plays:

  • Henrik Stenson 18/1, DK Price $10,200
  • Kevin Na 45/1, DK Price $8,000
  • Matt Kuchar 60/1, DK Price $8,200
  • Si-Woo Kim 200/1, DK Price $7,200

Gianni is the Managing Editor at GolfWRX. He can be contacted at gianni@golfwrx.com.

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Opinion & Analysis

The 2 primary challenges golf equipment companies face

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As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!

Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.

Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.

One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?

Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.

Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.

Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”

For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…

Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.

Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…

That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.

@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic

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Podcasts

Fore Love of Golf: Introducing a new club concept

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Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!

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Opinion & Analysis

On Scottie Scheffler wondering ‘What’s the point of winning?’

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Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.

 

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“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”

Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.

That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.

As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.

I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.

One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.

The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.

If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.

Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.

As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.

It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.

David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.

In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:

“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”

Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”

Eventually, though, something shifts.

We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.

Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.

Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.

Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.

So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.

I see someone evolving.

He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.

It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.

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