I miss Steve Stricker.

And while I’m antsy for the grizzled veteran to bring his polished game to the PGA Tour in whatever limited schedule he plays, that would just be one more accomplished name in this week’s Northern Trust Open field.

Folks, this one is a doozy, not only for actual competition which will be fierce, but also in the fantasy golf world where many rosters will differ this week thanks to the sheer volume of talent.

In evaluation of pristine Riviera Country Club, one thing is certain: This is a thinking man’s golf course. That means placing a premium on iron play, capitalizing on scoring opportunities and gaging a golfer’s mental fortitude during the selection process. That doesn’t necessarily add up to the prerequisite of major championship-winning stuff, but it definitely doesn’t exclude it. There are a lot of excellent golfers this week even without Stricker, Tiger or Phil. Sifting through the field and picking winners and losers is as challenging as being on Justin Bieber’s public relations team. It’s not ideal, but we’ve got to do it anyway. Welcome to Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

The key to judging when to pull the trigger on a risky selection assessing what you stand to gain with someone in versus what you stand to lose. Last week, I made mention of Charlie Wi being a risk and really an all-or-nothing choice because of a successful course history. As time wound down towards the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am, I found myself wondering why I’d roster a guy and use him for just Monterrey. So at the last minute, I pulled Wi in favor of Brendon Todd and paired him in Yahoo Group C with Jimmy Walker. Turns out, it was a solid move. The risk of keeping Wi outweighed the cost of removing him for someone with bigger potential upside four the four days. And since Walker won, well it was a good week to say the least.

Justin Rose

As a U.S. Open champion, Rose’s upside is big. You can’t diminish winning under tough course conditions and its mentally-draining grind. Rose has a T9 in 2011 to his credit here, but he is making his first start of the year on American soil and hasn’t played for two months due to tendinitis. He may be several weeks off from really challenging, but he has the makeup you’re looking for to be in the top 10. He finished fifth back in November in the WGC-HSBC Champions, and Rose’s last two starts at the NTO are T13 (’12) and T9 (’11).

Matt Kuchar 

Kuchar has yet to get over the hump and win his first major, which really comes down to weekend troubles. But he’s as consistent a golfer as you’ll find and does have a win, albeit in the non-sanctioned Franklin Templeton Shootout, to boast of this season. He hasn’t played since Hawaii, but all six of his starts this year on Tour are top 10’s. He’s all but a lock to roll with in Yahoo leagues even though he’s never finished inside the top 10 at the NTO and has mostly been outside the top 20.

Jordan Spieth

I don’t doubt Spieth could win this, not for a second. But he’s probably been used quite a few times already this season. So check your starts because guys like Rose or Kuchar likely have nine or 10 still available and it could just be the week to use one of them instead since the drop off isn’t severe, if completely non-existent. But I get the desire to use the second-year phenom who’s coming of a T4 finish at Pebble Beach. But with a record of having played this as an amateur in 2012 and missing the cut, I’m likely to save a start for later in the year.

Bill Haas

Yet another who has probably been used several times already, Haas has had enormous success at the Northern Trust Open, including a win in 2012, but he’s also missed the cut a twice. Will he win again? If the bet is Haas or the field, you take the field. But you can’t discount how he’s 6 for 6 this year in cuts made with two top-10 finishes. He also followed up his win with a T3 result last year where he held the lead late before fading. With a T12 in 2011, the former FedEx Cup champion is mentally strong, just not the flashy choice.

J.B. Holmes

Little test. Print out the top 20 names from the last seven years at this tournament, guess whose name will jump out at you? Holmes has been tried on Riviera time and time again and come through. He’s extremely intriguing, but this is a lot like the Wi argument. Is he good enough to use in lieu of Charl Schwartzel, Louis Oosthuizen or Harris English? That is a Yahoo group C dilemma, especially since Walker (see below) is also in that group. Ouch. Maybe one safe pick, one flyer is an option, but I’m leaning towards a safe pick and a proven South African with a Green Jacket. Holmes is 3 for 3 in return from multiple surgeries last year, which allows you to throw out last year’s MC. Before that: ’12, T8; ’11, T12; ’09, T6; ’08, T7. That track record is hard to ignore, especially in some fantasy money or FedEx Cup points games where you could be splitting hairs with a lesser-tiered golfer.

REWARD

This isn’t one of those weeks where the top five just jump out at you. In fact, the ones I’ve selected have flaws, it just helps that everyone else will also be unwilling to avoid rostering them for fear they’ll dominate the Pacific Palisades’ course. Rightfully so since this grouping has the two hottest golfers going these days and another three with championship pedigrees.

Jimmy Walker

Three wins in eight starts, that’s Tiger-esque. But that is exactly what Walker has done this year to get his only three PGA Tour victories. I say only like it’s easy. In reality, it’s quite difficult, which is why once you win, you know how to win. Walker isn’t walking out on Riviera hoping to play well— which is a course he’s played supremely well on in the past— he’s expecting to win. That was what Zach Johnson was doing a month ago. That’s what Tiger and Phil have done for over a decade. You can’t put it past Walker now, especially at this venue. He was T16 last year and T4 the two years before that.

Graham DeLaet

It’s only a matter of “when” for DeLaet. He’s as confident as anyone on the course, and that mental aspect will be important this week as he attempts conquering the NTO to secure his first Tour win. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if it comes on the confluence of his previous upward-trending play, where he’s been the runner-up his last two tournaments at the Farmers Insurance Open and the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Before that was three top-10’s. He’s made the cut in both starts at the NTO.

Dustin Johnson

I’m not sure I’d want to play a pro-am with my future father-in-law, especially if he was a celebrity as is the case with Johnson and his relationship to former hockey great Wayne Gretzky. That is a lot of pressure to play well. But Johnson proved he could navigate any discomfort and still play exceptional. Pebble Beach yielded yet another fine tournament from Johnson, who finished tied for second. In fact, every start this year has put him in contention and he posted a win in his first Tour start of the season. At Riviera, Johnson seems to do well in even-numbered years, so you’re in luck. In 2010, he was T3, then MC’d the next year. In 2012, he ended T4, then missed the cut the next year. That trend bodes well for 2014.

Hunter Mahan

Steady as can be, both of Mahan’s February starts have tallied fourth and sixth-place finishes. Can he grab a signature win early in this season? Signs point to yes as his iron play is always steady and he finished T8 last year. Mahan lost the Accenture Match Play Championships last year to Kuchar, which will be played next week, so this right about the time when he first strikes. Riviera requires precision on its par-4’s, and Mahan’s best strength this season lies in strokes-gained putting. That could be enough to create separation for a win.

Webb Simpson

Don’t sleep on the former U.S. Open champion. He navigated a brutally tough Olympic Club golf course in 2012 for his first major, which shows his make-up. With five top-10s this season and a T6 result last year, the Wake Forest product is hopeful to snap the winless streak he’s had since that successful June 20 day over a year and half ago. Simpson finished T15 in his only other start here, while he leads the Tour in birdie average and scoring average and ranks third in all-around. He’s a strong bet to finish in the top 10.

RUIN

In such a deep field of talent, I’m not going take the easy way out and say “Don’t take former two-time champion Mike Weir,” although, seriously, don’t. I hope you know that well enough by now. Rather, I’d like to approach where you could slip up and make a mistake simply because the name is enticing enough to warrant a pick, even the final result resembles something like a T40 versus a missed cut.

Lee Westwood

What’s the opposite of mental fortitude? That would be Westwood playing the back nine of a major. The Englishman just puts too much pressure on himself to win, and as a result makes himself worse in the process. If I’m looking for a guy who can navigate four days of treacherous golf over a series of tough par-4s, I can do much better than Westwood. Is there upside? Potentially. But doesn’t it feel like you’re trying to hit a homerun by hitting a moving baseball in total darkness? I don’t want to ever have to try to get lucky in that fashion, especially just to be Mr. I-Told-You-So. He missed the cut at the WMPO, which is significant because he didn’t miss a cut at all last year. What did Phoenix require? Focus in front of large throngs of screaming people. Westwood finished T21 last year, shooting lower the first two days to avoid a missed cut but proceeding to go over-par on the weekend. It’s a familiar trend.

Chris Kirk

For much of this new season, Kirk has been a great selection, especially in light of his win at the McGladrey Classic. I think I’ve used him two or three times already and it has worked out. But Riviera hasn’t been kind to Kirk and with so many good golfers, someone equally good but less seasoned will miss the cut. I fear it’s Kirk, but also wouldn’t be surprised to be wrong. He was T33 last year and the previous two times missed the cut. Maybe his game has just gotten that much better to where he will play well, but I’m not using this week to find out firsthand. It’s wait-and-see for me.

Will Mackenzie 

This is sort of a rebuttal to other rankings out there that believe Mackenzie’s game is strong enough to be considered for selection. Over Jason Dufner? Holmes, Oosthuizen, English or Schwartzel? Rickie Fowler? Bubba Watson? For some inexplicable reason he’s listed ahead of those guys, despite one made cut in five tries. Hell, Aaron Baddeley won this tourney once (2011), has played well here and seems to have shaken the horrible season he had last year. Mackenzie has been in the top 15 in five of the seven cuts he’s made this year. But he also missed the NTO cut from 2009-11 and had to spend 2012-13 on the Web.com Tour. I’m not hitching my ride to Mackenzie’s horse.

Rory Sabbatini

There’s always someone looking to catch lightning in a bottle and buck conventional wisdom. I thought we’d covered this already. Stop! Yes, Sabbatini’s resume says 2006 Nissan Open champion, the previous namesake of this tournament. His gravestone will probably say it too. And yes he has a T9 and T6 to his credit in the years following, but how can you ignore the T76 and three MC’s he has since then? Mix in four missed cuts this year and you may as well begin digging six feet down into the cold earth.

Padraig Harrington 

The three-time major champion from Ireland looked solid last week at Pebble Beach following a missed cut at the WMPO. He is by definition a grinder, which fits well when scoring is tough. But he played very poorly last year and missed the cut at the NTO. But he has more than a few MC’s since then and sub-par finishes when he does make one.

As always, you can find me on Twitter @bricmiller if you want to talk about the tournament or if you have any fantasy lineup inquiries. Good luck!

This week’s picks:

Yahoo!

A: M. Kuchar (S), R. Moore

B: H. Mahan (S), D. Johnson (S), B. Haas, G. DeLaet

C: J. Walker (S), C. Schwartzel

(Last week: 226 points; Winter segment: 1,088 points; Rank: 837)

PGATour.com

J. Walker, G. DeLaet, W. Simpson, M. Kuchar

(Last week: 471 points; Season: 2,380; Rank: 3,972)

Golf Channel

Group 1: M. Kuchar

Group 2: G. DeLaet

Group 3: J. Kokrak

Group 4: A. Baddeley

(Last week: $697,400; Season: $3,135,639; Mulligan: $63,115; Rank: 11,421)