Opinion & Analysis
Fantasy Cheat Sheet: BMW Championship
In an interesting twist to the typical PGA Tour rotation, the FedEx Cup playoffs continue this week at the BMW Championship, but much farther west than normal.
Long held in the Midwest, mostly at Cog Hill outside Chicago, the venue this year falls to Cherry Hills Country Club, in the south suburbs of Denver. While we won’t get to see golf balls bouncing off bighorn sheep and huge Rocky Mountain boulders because of the lower plains locale, it will be an eventful opportunity to drive the ball in high altitude.
After wins by Hunter Mahan at The Barclays and Chris Kirk at the Deutsche Bank Championship, it’s a chance for another improbable outcome as the Tour winds its way to Atlanta for the final FedEx Cup showdown for the Top 30 at the Tour Championship. Cherry Hills is a par-71 setup with a length of 7,466 yards, putting it on the upper tier of long courses used on Tour, but the higher elevation of 5,300 feet above sea level helps it play much shorter. You have to go all the way back to 1985 for the last PGA Tour event at Cherry Hills, when the PGA Championship was held there. At least one player in the field has played the course, Phil Mickelson, who won the 1990 U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills in the same year he won an NCAA individual title.
That was a long time ago and 24 years has changed his game into a major champion and back into someone struggling to find the right touch from week to week. It’s a different feeling for Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama, who are coming into their prime and played the 2012 U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills. Additionally, Cameron Tringale and Morgan Hoffman have experience in Colorado, having played the 2009 Palmer Cup on the venue.
The top 70 in the field don’t need any added incentive to play well, but inclusion in the top 30 means playing all four majors next year. Now it’s time to see what this course means for fantasy purposes with only two weeks left in the season. It’s the second-to-last edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.
RISK
Hopefully you have two starts left from everyone in the field, but if not, you’re probably only out of one or two people, like I am with Rory McIlroy. I only have one start left from Adam Scott and Zach Johnson too. If I were to strategize among those, I’d save Scott for the finale and use ZJ this week, given he’s been getting progressively better and peaked this time of year last season by winning the BMW at Conway Farms.
But it also makes sense just to fire away and pick the best left from the top 30, especially since the odds would only increase that your opponent would pick the same way. Think of this week as Saturday moving day. If you’re behind, as I am after watching the current leader go from 250 points back six weeks ago to ahead by 40, then you need to make a push and find someone like a Chris Kirk who won’t be in many lineups and can net huge bonus points.
But golf is also the hardest fantasy sport to predict. You can look at trends and course history, but still anyone can turn it on for four days. That’s why the Deutsche Bank was littered at the top with Kirk, Billy Horschel, Geoff Ogilvy and others. McIlroy may be the best and had a great tournament, but everyone else has equal shot of winning a tournament. And now, for this week’s risks.
Ryan Moore
Definitely some risk to Moore this week, who seems to have slowed since a run of T5, T7, T12 and T8 preceding the PGA Championship where he finished tied for 40th. A missed cut at The Barclays and a 73rd finish at TPC Boston likely has him outside Tom Watson’s Ryder Cup picks. It may be Moore felt the pressure to perform and faded and will now have to live with disappointment, or he’ll come out possessed and show Watson why he should have been included. This is conjecture since at the time of writing this, we’re still five hours away from the public declaration of U.S. selections.
Zach Johnson
I mentioned last week that Johnson was trending back up after a lull in the middle part of his year. After a T16 at TPC Boston, it’s much safer to roll with Johnson this week, especially since his troubles with distance will be helped this week by elevation. On a tight course, Johnson’s precision will be key. He ranks eighth in driving accuracy and 17th in the new Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green category. His putting is usually a matter of feel and he seems to be getting that touch back for scoring.
Bubba Watson
Huge upside for Bubba this week, who can take aim at the green on the drivable par-4 1st, which measures at 346 yards. I wonder if he won’t hit one 400 yards with the altitude. That will be a huge advantage on several long par-5s, one which tops out at 633 yards. If he can take advantage of scoring opportunities there, it will be him ahead of the field on the more precise holes. Watson is almost always a risk though, given that you just don’t know if he’ll try to get too creative, which can lead to bogeys. He finished TPC Boston solid with rounds of 69-67, putting him at T29. I’m hoping he rises to the top here.
Hideki Matsuyama
As mentioned, Matsuyama has experience at Cherry Hills, and while Spieth has far less risk attached to him, the youngster from Japan has similar upside with a bit more stealth for fantasy purposes. An opening-round 73 and a final-round 74 at TPC Boston derailed his middle rounds of 69-68. Matsuyama finished T57, but he’s taken big steps this year in learning how to win and make the cut each week. With four rounds to play with, he’ll throw at least two low scores into the mix and ideally more with a statistical makeup that ranks fifth in SG: T-G.
John Senden
Quietly having a very good year, Senden has put up a T22 at The Barclays, followed by a T5 at the Deutsche Bank. He’s just calmly hitting fairways, hitting greens and scrambling when needed. Senden’s not only won this year, but the Aussie has put up five top-10s and rebounded from a rough patch with his recent play. He may not be the most flashy guy, but he’s solid and doesn’t do much wrong. That could be a good thing this week, especially if paired in Yahoo C with a good complement.
REWARD
Owning starts from the chalk can be huge to hold off a challenger. Having McIlroy availability is far more valuable than Webb Simpson. It doesn’t mean you won’t use Simpson, but if picking between the two, you go No. 1 golfer in the world all day, and that doesn’t matter at what position you’re sitting. If you get into an internal discussion over Simpson or Horschel, the argument changes a little bit. So make sure you have chalk slotted somewhere and take calculated risks after that.
Rory McIlroy
McIlroy’s streak is now 1-1-1-22-5 for his last five tournaments. Just keep rolling with him. He’s killing greens in regulation, putting also his approaches close to pin. That’s helped him post low round after low round. I really shouldn’t have to say more.
Jason Day
His thumb injury is now a thing of the past and Day is playing out of his mind right now. With top-10s in The Barclays and at TPC Boston, the Aussie is sitting pretty and trending upward. While he didn’t close strong on Labor Day, Day’s aggressive mentality and competitive streak is a big plus this week as play starts on a short week of rest. The greens are tight this week and Day’s putting has been stellar. He was tops in the category at the Deutsche Bank, sinking 67 of 71 putts from inside 10 feet.
Adam Scott
In many ways, Scott is flying under the radar. But his T16 in Boston continues a great streak of 1st, T4, T9, T5, T8, T15, T15 over his last eight starts. If he doesn’t open with a 73 in Boston, Scott likely finishes within the top five and challenges for a win. Expect him to be on point this week. Scott ranks fourth in SG: T-G.
Sergio Garcia
Rested after taking a week off, Garcia is a must-pick for Yahoo C, which is why he gets listed here. He hasn’t been sterling his last two starts with a T35 at the PGA Championship and a T57 at The Barclays, but prior to that Garcia had three consecutive second-place finishes. Rest and a little tinkering could be just what needed and probably factored into his decision to skip Boston. He’s too good tee to green to have a third sub-par tournament.
Jim Furyk
He’s a machine. Furyk’s swing maturity just allows him to go out and play the course and not think about much else. Even though he finished with a T23 in Boston, it’s one “poor” result in a stretch of fine play. You really could make the case that Furyk’s had the best season Tour of non-winners. He hasn’t missed a cut in 19 starts, earned 16 top-25s in those events and amassed nine top-10s, including three 2nds. He’s in form and knows how to win the FedEx Cup, and that counts for a lot.
RUIN
This is a no-cut event, which should factor into your thinking. Unfortunately, both Brendan Todd and Charley Hoffman missed the cut in Yahoo C last week. That hurt dearly on the weekend when my opponent, who used Todd and Jimmy Walker, picked up a guaranteed advantage. Having a safety net this week is nice if you do plan to shake things up radically. After all, a bad opening round can turn into a winning tournament, just as Kirk did at TPC Boston. So with no cut, you need to look for those guys who are struggling to score at the moment. And since course history is also out for this tournament, it shouldn’t be hard to go back and look at the past several weeks to see just who snuck in the top 70 and who is actually a contender.
Steven Bowditch
Decent sub-par totals in the first two FedEx Cup events for Bowditch, who currently sits at 45th in the standings. The trouble still comes from looking at the overall slate of his yeart, which includes 11 missed cuts. While he won’t have to worry about that this week, nor have his last three tournaments been that bad, he should be outmatched by just about anyone you put him up against in a head-to-head comparison. Go with the chalk first.
Chesson Hadley
Hadley is well on his way to earning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year honors, aided heavily by a win at the Puerto Rico Open. But he’s also had his struggles, missing 10 of 11 cuts not long after that. He got into the playoffs and barely made the cut to finish 70th (74-69-70-78), good enough because of his points total to move on for another week. A T9 at the Deutsche Bank on rounds of 66-73-67-69 flashed his potential, but there’s no way you can trust him this week. At 57th in the standings, he’s likely gone after this week.
Matt Jones
Just slipped into the field at 67th, Jones has been riding the points of a playoff win at the Shell Houston Open for much of the year, which is still his only top-10 of the season. He missed the cut at The Barclays and tied for 78th after just three rounds of play (69-75-79) at the Deutsche Bank due to an MDF. Nothing enticing about him this week.
Stuart Appelby
Appleby surprised everyone by coming in T2 at The Barclays, which catapulted him in FedEx points up the standings. He came back down to earth at TPC Boston, where he missed the cut. He still sits at 26th in standings thanks to that first tournament, but he’s in big danger of having his bubble burst for the Tour Championship. That missed cut is now four in Appelby’s last six starts. Hardly reliable.
Erik Compton
Similar to Appelby, Compton parlayed a T19 at The Barclays into sticking around a few more weeks. He’s in because of a T2 at the U.S. Open, but Compton has little else to brag about this year. A missed cut in Boston is now his fourth in his last five starts. At 62nd in the FedEx Cup standings, he’s done after this week barring a miraculous and unlikely performance.
Thanks for reading. If you’d like to further discuss strategies or selections, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller.
Best of luck!
This week’s picks:
Yahoo!
Group A: H. Stenson (S), B. Watson
Group B: J. Furyk (S), J. Day (S), Z. Johnson, H. Matsuyama
Group C: S. Garcia (S), J. Walker
(Last week: 116 points; Summer segment: 1,599; Summer rank: 30,636; Season points: 5,365; Full Season rank: 4,947 – 94th percentile)
PGATour.com
R. McIlroy, J. Day, J. Furyk, A. Scott
(Last week: 711 points; Season: 10,016; Rank: 3,825)
Golf Channel
Group 1: R. McIlroy
Group 2: J. Furyk
Group 3: R. Moore
Group 4: G. Ogilvy
(Last week: $370,787; Season: $16,211,083; Mulligan: $26,980; Rank: 12,941 of 41,550)
As the editor-in-chief of this website and an observer of the GolfWRX forums and other online golf equipment discourse for over a decade, I’m pretty well attuned to the grunts and grumbles of a significant portion of the golf equipment purchasing spectrum. And before you accuse me of lording above all in some digital ivory tower, I’d like to offer that I worked at golf courses (public and private) for years prior to picking up my pen, so I’m well-versed in the non-degenerate golf equipment consumers out there. I touched (green)grass (retail)!
Complaints about the ills of and related to the OEMs usually follow some version of: Product cycles are too short for real innovation, tour equipment isn’t the same as retail (which is largely not true, by the way), too much is invested in marketing and not enough in R&D, top staffer X hasn’t even put the new driver in play, so it’s obviously not superior to the previous generation, prices are too high, and on and on.
Without digging into the merits of any of these claims, which I believe are mostly red herrings, I’d like to bring into view of our rangefinder what I believe to be the two primary difficulties golf equipment companies face.
One: As Terry Koehler, back when he was the CEO of Ben Hogan, told me at the time of the Ft Worth irons launch, if you can’t regularly hit the golf ball in a coin-sized area in the middle of the face, there’s not a ton that iron technology can do for you. Now, this is less true now with respect to irons than when he said it, and is less and less true by degrees as the clubs get larger (utilities, fairways, hybrids, drivers), but there remains a great deal of golf equipment truth in that statement. Think about it — which is to say, in TL;DR fashion, get lessons from a qualified instructor who will teach you about the fundamentals of repeatable impact and how the golf swing works, not just offer band-aid fixes. If you can’t repeatably deliver the golf club to the golf ball in something resembling the manner it was designed for, how can you expect to be getting the most out of the club — put another way, the maximum value from your investment?
Similarly, game improvement equipment can only improve your game if you game it. In other words, get fit for the clubs you ought to be playing rather than filling the bag with the ones you wish you could hit or used to be able to hit. Of course, don’t do this if you don’t care about performance and just want to hit a forged blade while playing off an 18 handicap. That’s absolutely fine. There were plenty of members in clubs back in the day playing Hogan Apex or Mizuno MP-32 irons who had no business doing so from a ballstriking standpoint, but they enjoyed their look, feel, and complementary qualities to their Gatsby hats and cashmere sweaters. Do what brings you a measure of joy in this maddening game.
Now, the second issue. This is not a plea for non-conforming equipment; rather, it is a statement of fact. USGA/R&A limits on every facet of golf equipment are detrimental to golf equipment manufacturers. Sure, you know this, but do you think about it as it applies to almost every element of equipment? A 500cc driver would be inherently more forgiving than a 460cc, as one with a COR measurement in excess of 0.83. 50-inch shafts. Box grooves. And on and on.
Would fewer regulations be objectively bad for the game? Would this erode its soul? Fortunately, that’s beside the point of this exercise, which is merely to point out the facts. The fact, in this case, is that equipment restrictions and regulations are the slaughterbench of an abundance of innovation in the golf equipment space. Is this for the best? Well, now I’ve asked the question twice and might as well give a partial response, I guess my answer to that would be, “It depends on what type of golf you’re playing and who you’re playing it with.”
For my part, I don’t mind embarrassing myself with vintage blades and persimmons chasing after the quasi-spiritual elevation of a well-struck shot, but that’s just me. Plenty of folks don’t give a damn if their grooves are conforming. Plenty of folks think the folks in Liberty Corner ought to add a prison to the museum for such offences. And those are just a few of the considerations for the amateur game — which doesn’t get inside the gallery ropes of the pro game…
Different strokes in the game of golf, in my humble opinion.
Anyway, I believe equipment company engineers are genuinely trying to build better equipment year over year. The marketing departments are trying to find ways to make this equipment appeal to the broadest segment of the golf market possible. All of this against (1) the backdrop of — at least for now — firm product cycles. And golfers who, with their ~15 average handicap (men), for the most part, are not striping the golf ball like Tiger in his prime and seem to have less and less time year over year to practice and improve. (2) Regulations that massively restrict what they’re able to do…
That’s the landscape as I see it and the real headwinds for golf equipment companies. No doubt, there’s more I haven’t considered, but I think the previous is a better — and better faith — point of departure when formulating any serious commentary on the golf equipment world than some of the more cynical and conspiratorial takes I hear.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m worthy of an Adam Hadwin-esque security guard tackle? Let me know in the comments.
@golfoncbs The infamous Adam Hadwin tackle ? #golf #fyp #canada #pgatour #adamhadwin ? Ghibli-style nostalgic waltz – MaSssuguMusic
Episode #16 brings us Cliff McKinney. Cliff is the founder of Old Charlie Golf Club, a new club, and concept, to be built in the Florida panhandle. The model is quite interesting and aims to make great, private golf more affordable. We hope you enjoy the show!
Last week, I came across a reel from BBC Sport on Instagram featuring Scottie Scheffler speaking to the media ahead of The Open at Royal Portrush. In it, he shared that he often wonders what the point is of wanting to win tournaments so badly — especially when he knows, deep down, that it doesn’t lead to a truly fulfilling life.
View this post on Instagram
“Is it great to be able to win tournaments and to accomplish the things I have in the game of golf? Yeah, it brings tears to my eyes just to think about it because I’ve literally worked my entire life to be good at this sport,” Scheffler said. “To have that kind of sense of accomplishment, I think, is a pretty cool feeling. To get to live out your dreams is very special, but at the end of the day, I’m not out here to inspire the next generation of golfers. I’m not out here to inspire someone to be the best player in the world, because what’s the point?”
Ironically — or perhaps perfectly — he went on to win the claret jug.
That question — what’s the point of winning? — cuts straight to the heart of the human journey.
As someone who’s spent over two decades in the trenches of professional golf, and in deep study of the mental, emotional, and spiritual dimensions of the game, I see Scottie’s inner conflict as a sign of soul evolution in motion.
I came to golf late. I wasn’t a junior standout or college All-American. At 27, I left a steady corporate job to see if I could be on the PGA Tour starting as a 14-handicap, average-length hitter. Over the years, my journey has been defined less by trophies and more by the relentless effort to navigate the deeply inequitable and gated system of professional golf — an effort that ultimately turned inward and helped me evolve as both a golfer and a person.
One perspective that helped me make sense of this inner dissonance around competition and our culture’s tendency to overvalue winning is the idea of soul evolution.
The University of Virginia’s Division of Perceptual Studies has done extensive research on reincarnation, and Netflix’s Surviving Death (Episode 6) explores the topic, too. Whether you take it literally or metaphorically, the idea that we’re on a long arc of growth — from beginner to sage elder — offers a profound perspective.
If you accept the premise literally, then terms like “young soul” and “old soul” start to hold meaning. However, even if we set the word “soul” aside, it’s easy to see that different levels of life experience produce different worldviews.
Newer souls — or people in earlier stages of their development — may be curious and kind but still lack discernment or depth. There is a naivety, and they don’t yet question as deeply, tending to see things in black and white, partly because certainty feels safer than confronting the unknown.
As we gain more experience, we begin to experiment. We test limits. We chase extreme external goals — sometimes at the expense of health, relationships, or inner peace — still operating from hunger, ambition, and the fragility of the ego.
It’s a necessary stage, but often a turbulent and unfulfilling one.
David Duval fell off the map after reaching World No. 1. Bubba Watson had his own “Is this it?” moment with his caddie, Ted Scott, after winning the Masters.
In Aaron Rodgers: Enigma, reflecting on his 2011 Super Bowl win, Rodgers said:
“Now I’ve accomplished the only thing that I really, really wanted to do in my life. Now what? I was like, ‘Did I aim at the wrong thing? Did I spend too much time thinking about stuff that ultimately doesn’t give you true happiness?’”
Jim Carrey once said, “I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it’s not the answer.”
Eventually, though, something shifts.
We begin to see in shades of gray. Winning, dominating, accumulating—these pursuits lose their shine. The rewards feel more fleeting. Living in a constant state of fight-or-flight makes us feel alive, yes, but not happy and joyful.
Compassion begins to replace ambition. Love, presence, and gratitude become more fulfilling than status, profits, or trophies. We crave balance over burnout. Collaboration over competition. Meaning over metrics.
Interestingly, if we zoom out, we can apply this same model to nations and cultures. Countries, like people, have a collective “soul stage” made up of the individuals within them.
Take the United States, for example. I’d place it as a mid-level soul: highly competitive and deeply driven, but still learning emotional maturity. Still uncomfortable with nuance. Still believing that more is always better. Despite its global wins, the U.S. currently ranks just 23rd in happiness (as of 2025). You might liken it to a gifted teenager—bold, eager, and ambitious, but angsty and still figuring out how to live well and in balance. As much as a parent wants to protect their child, sometimes the child has to make their own mistakes to truly grow.
So when Scottie Scheffler wonders what the point of winning is, I don’t see someone losing strength.
I see someone evolving.
He’s beginning to look beyond the leaderboard. Beyond metrics of success that carry a lower vibration. And yet, in a poetic twist, Scheffler did go on to win The Open. But that only reinforces the point: even at the pinnacle, the question remains. And if more of us in the golf and sports world — and in U.S. culture at large — started asking similar questions, we might discover that the more meaningful trophy isn’t about accumulating or beating others at all costs.
It’s about awakening and evolving to something more than winning could ever promise.
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Gary McCormick
Sep 2, 2014 at 5:49 pm
Something to consider re: Bubba and golf at altitude. While the thinner air at higher elevations reduces drag and allows the ball to fly farther, for a player who, like Bubba, works the ball — indeed, almost NEVER hits it straight — the thinner air will work against him.
The lower density of the air at Denver’s elevation has less aerodynamic effect on the ball, so Bubba may find his shots going inexplicably (at least to him) straighter than he is used to, especially if he hasn’t played at higher elevations before.
I look for Bubba to implode under the frustration (for which he has a low threshold…) of not being able to play his customary brand of “Bubba Golf”..
DB
Sep 3, 2014 at 9:46 pm
I’m pretty sure “Bubba Golf” is ruined by the unbearable frustration of not having a good parking spot, let alone the elevation change.
“Reduced drag on the ball, bro…”