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Opinion & Analysis

Fantasy Cheat Sheet: BMW Championship

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In an interesting twist to the typical PGA Tour rotation, the FedEx Cup playoffs continue this week at the BMW Championship, but much farther west than normal.

Long held in the Midwest, mostly at Cog Hill outside Chicago, the venue this year falls to Cherry Hills Country Club, in the south suburbs of Denver. While we won’t get to see golf balls bouncing off bighorn sheep and huge Rocky Mountain boulders because of the lower plains locale, it will be an eventful opportunity to drive the ball in high altitude.

After wins by Hunter Mahan at The Barclays and Chris Kirk at the Deutsche Bank Championship, it’s a chance for another improbable outcome as the Tour winds its way to Atlanta for the final FedEx Cup showdown for the Top 30 at the Tour Championship. Cherry Hills is a par-71 setup with a length of 7,466 yards, putting it on the upper tier of long courses used on Tour, but the higher elevation of 5,300 feet above sea level helps it play much shorter. You have to go all the way back to 1985 for the last PGA Tour event at Cherry Hills, when the PGA Championship was held there. At least one player in the field has played the course, Phil Mickelson, who won the 1990 U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills in the same year he won an NCAA individual title.

That was a long time ago and 24 years has changed his game into a major champion and back into someone struggling to find the right touch from week to week. It’s a different feeling for Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama, who are coming into their prime and played the 2012 U.S. Amateur at Cherry Hills. Additionally, Cameron Tringale and Morgan Hoffman have experience in Colorado, having played the 2009 Palmer Cup on the venue.

The top 70 in the field don’t need any added incentive to play well, but inclusion in the top 30 means playing all four majors next year. Now it’s time to see what this course means for fantasy purposes with only two weeks left in the season. It’s the second-to-last edition of Risk, Reward, Ruin.

RISK

RyanMoore

Hopefully you have two starts left from everyone in the field, but if not, you’re probably only out of one or two people, like I am with Rory McIlroy. I only have one start left from Adam Scott and Zach Johnson too. If I were to strategize among those, I’d save Scott for the finale and use ZJ this week, given he’s been getting progressively better and peaked this time of year last season by winning the BMW at Conway Farms.

But it also makes sense just to fire away and pick the best left from the top 30, especially since the odds would only increase that your opponent would pick the same way. Think of this week as Saturday moving day. If you’re behind, as I am after watching the current leader go from 250 points back six weeks ago to ahead by 40, then you need to make a push and find someone like a Chris Kirk who won’t be in many lineups and can net huge bonus points.

But golf is also the hardest fantasy sport to predict. You can look at trends and course history, but still anyone can turn it on for four days. That’s why the Deutsche Bank was littered at the top with Kirk, Billy Horschel, Geoff Ogilvy and others. McIlroy may be the best and had a great tournament, but everyone else has equal shot of winning a tournament. And now, for this week’s risks.

Ryan Moore

Definitely some risk to Moore this week, who seems to have slowed since a run of T5, T7, T12 and T8 preceding the PGA Championship where he finished tied for 40th. A missed cut at The Barclays and a 73rd finish at TPC Boston likely has him outside Tom Watson’s Ryder Cup picks. It may be Moore felt the pressure to perform and faded and will now have to live with disappointment, or he’ll come out possessed and show Watson why he should have been included. This is conjecture since at the time of writing this, we’re still five hours away from the public declaration of U.S. selections.

Zach Johnson

ZachJohnson

I mentioned last week that Johnson was trending back up after a lull in the middle part of his year. After a T16 at TPC Boston, it’s much safer to roll with Johnson this week, especially since his troubles with distance will be helped this week by elevation. On a tight course, Johnson’s precision will be key. He ranks eighth in driving accuracy and 17th in the new Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green category. His putting is usually a matter of feel and he seems to be getting that touch back for scoring.

Bubba Watson

Huge upside for Bubba this week, who can take aim at the green on the drivable par-4 1st, which measures at 346 yards. I wonder if he won’t hit one 400 yards with the altitude. That will be a huge advantage on several long par-5s, one which tops out at 633 yards. If he can take advantage of scoring opportunities there, it will be him ahead of the field on the more precise holes. Watson is almost always a risk though, given that you just don’t know if he’ll try to get too creative, which can lead to bogeys. He finished TPC Boston solid with rounds of 69-67, putting him at T29. I’m hoping he rises to the top here.

Hideki Matsuyama

HidekiMatsuyama

As mentioned, Matsuyama has experience at Cherry Hills, and while Spieth has far less risk attached to him, the youngster from Japan has similar upside with a bit more stealth for fantasy purposes. An opening-round 73 and a final-round 74 at TPC Boston derailed his middle rounds of 69-68. Matsuyama finished T57, but he’s taken big steps this year in learning how to win and make the cut each week. With four rounds to play with, he’ll throw at least two low scores into the mix and ideally more with a statistical makeup that ranks fifth in SG: T-G.

John Senden

Quietly having a very good year, Senden has put up a T22 at The Barclays, followed by a T5 at the Deutsche Bank. He’s just calmly hitting fairways, hitting greens and scrambling when needed. Senden’s not only won this year, but the Aussie has put up five top-10s and rebounded from a rough patch with his recent play. He may not be the most flashy guy, but he’s solid and doesn’t do much wrong. That could be a good thing this week, especially if paired in Yahoo C with a good complement.

REWARD

PGA Championship Golf

Owning starts from the chalk can be huge to hold off a challenger. Having McIlroy availability is far more valuable than Webb Simpson. It doesn’t mean you won’t use Simpson, but if picking between the two, you go No. 1 golfer in the world all day, and that doesn’t matter at what position you’re sitting. If you get into an internal discussion over Simpson or Horschel, the argument changes a little bit. So make sure you have chalk slotted somewhere and take calculated risks after that.

Rory McIlroy

McIlroy’s streak is now 1-1-1-22-5 for his last five tournaments. Just keep rolling with him. He’s killing greens in regulation, putting also his approaches close to pin. That’s helped him post low round after low round. I really shouldn’t have to say more.

Jason Day

462145639CH00066_The_Barcla

His thumb injury is now a thing of the past and Day is playing out of his mind right now. With top-10s in The Barclays and at TPC Boston, the Aussie is sitting pretty and trending upward. While he didn’t close strong on Labor Day, Day’s aggressive mentality and competitive streak is a big plus this week as play starts on a short week of rest. The greens are tight this week and Day’s putting has been stellar. He was tops in the category at the Deutsche Bank, sinking 67 of 71 putts from inside 10 feet.

Adam Scott

In many ways, Scott is flying under the radar. But his T16 in Boston continues a great streak of 1st, T4, T9, T5, T8, T15, T15 over his last eight starts. If he doesn’t open with a 73 in Boston, Scott likely finishes within the top five and challenges for a win. Expect him to be on point this week. Scott ranks fourth in SG: T-G.

Sergio Garcia

SergioGarcia

Rested after taking a week off, Garcia is a must-pick for Yahoo C, which is why he gets listed here. He hasn’t been sterling his last two starts with a T35 at the PGA Championship and a T57 at The Barclays, but prior to that Garcia had three consecutive second-place finishes. Rest and a little tinkering could be just what needed and probably factored into his decision to skip Boston. He’s too good tee to green to have a third sub-par tournament.

Jim Furyk

He’s a machine. Furyk’s swing maturity just allows him to go out and play the course and not think about much else. Even though he finished with a T23 in Boston, it’s one “poor” result in a stretch of fine play. You really could make the case that Furyk’s had the best season Tour of non-winners. He hasn’t missed a cut in 19 starts, earned 16 top-25s in those events and amassed nine top-10s, including three 2nds. He’s in form and knows how to win the FedEx Cup, and that counts for a lot.

RUIN

StevenBowditch

This is a no-cut event, which should factor into your thinking. Unfortunately, both Brendan Todd and Charley Hoffman missed the cut in Yahoo C last week. That hurt dearly on the weekend when my opponent, who used Todd and Jimmy Walker, picked up a guaranteed advantage. Having a safety net this week is nice if you do plan to shake things up radically. After all, a bad opening round can turn into a winning tournament, just as Kirk did at TPC Boston. So with no cut, you need to look for those guys who are struggling to score at the moment. And since course history is also out for this tournament, it shouldn’t be hard to go back and look at the past several weeks to see just who snuck in the top 70 and who is actually a contender.

Steven Bowditch

Decent sub-par totals in the first two FedEx Cup events for Bowditch, who currently sits at 45th in the standings. The trouble still comes from looking at the overall slate of his yeart, which includes 11 missed cuts. While he won’t have to worry about that this week, nor have his last three tournaments been that bad, he should be outmatched by just about anyone you put him up against in a head-to-head comparison. Go with the chalk first.

Chesson Hadley

Deutsche Bank Championship - Round Three

Hadley is well on his way to earning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year honors, aided heavily by a win at the Puerto Rico Open. But he’s also had his struggles, missing 10 of 11 cuts not long after that. He got into the playoffs and barely made the cut to finish 70th (74-69-70-78), good enough because of his points total to move on for another week. A T9 at the Deutsche Bank on rounds of 66-73-67-69 flashed his potential, but there’s no way you can trust him this week. At 57th in the standings, he’s likely gone after this week.

Matt Jones

Just slipped into the field at 67th, Jones has been riding the points of a playoff win at the Shell Houston Open for much of the year, which is still his only top-10 of the season. He missed the cut at The Barclays and tied for 78th after just three rounds of play (69-75-79) at the Deutsche Bank due to an MDF. Nothing enticing about him this week.

Stuart Appelby

StuartAppleby

Appleby surprised everyone by coming in T2 at The Barclays, which catapulted him in FedEx points up the standings. He came back down to earth at TPC Boston, where he missed the cut. He still sits at 26th in standings thanks to that first tournament, but he’s in big danger of having his bubble burst for the Tour Championship. That missed cut is now four in Appelby’s last six starts. Hardly reliable.

Erik Compton

Similar to Appelby, Compton parlayed a T19 at The Barclays into sticking around a few more weeks. He’s in because of a T2 at the U.S. Open, but Compton has little else to brag about this year. A missed cut in Boston is now his fourth in his last five starts. At 62nd in the FedEx Cup standings, he’s done after this week barring a miraculous and unlikely performance.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to further discuss strategies or selections, you can comment below or find me on Twitter @bricmiller.

Best of luck!

This week’s picks:

Yahoo!

Group A: H. Stenson (S), B. Watson
Group B: J. Furyk (S), J. Day (S), Z. Johnson, H. Matsuyama
Group C: S. Garcia (S), J. Walker
(Last week: 116 points; Summer segment: 1,599; Summer rank: 30,636; Season points: 5,365; Full Season rank: 4,947 – 94th percentile)

PGATour.com

R. McIlroy, J. Day, J. Furyk, A. Scott
(Last week: 711 points; Season: 10,016; Rank: 3,825)

Golf Channel

Group 1: R. McIlroy
Group 2: J. Furyk
Group 3: R. Moore
Group 4: G. Ogilvy
(Last week: $370,787; Season: $16,211,083; Mulligan: $26,980; Rank: 12,941 of 41,550)

Brian Miller is a sports writer of over eight years and his work has appeared in the Chicago Sun-Times, Miami Herald and Tallahassee Democrat. He's a fantasy golf nut and his golf novel will be published in spring 2014. You may find him on Twitter @bricmiller.

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Gary McCormick

    Sep 2, 2014 at 5:49 pm

    Something to consider re: Bubba and golf at altitude. While the thinner air at higher elevations reduces drag and allows the ball to fly farther, for a player who, like Bubba, works the ball — indeed, almost NEVER hits it straight — the thinner air will work against him.

    The lower density of the air at Denver’s elevation has less aerodynamic effect on the ball, so Bubba may find his shots going inexplicably (at least to him) straighter than he is used to, especially if he hasn’t played at higher elevations before.

    I look for Bubba to implode under the frustration (for which he has a low threshold…) of not being able to play his customary brand of “Bubba Golf”..

    • DB

      Sep 3, 2014 at 9:46 pm

      I’m pretty sure “Bubba Golf” is ruined by the unbearable frustration of not having a good parking spot, let alone the elevation change.

      “Reduced drag on the ball, bro…”

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Opinion & Analysis

Brandel Chamblee PGA Championship Q&A: Rose’s huge McLaren risk, distracted LIV pros and why Aronimink suits the bombers

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PGA Championship week is here, and Brandel Chamblee did not hold back in our latest discussion ahead of the season’s second major.

In our 2026 PGA Championship Q&A, golf’s leading analyst made the case that PIF pulling LIV’s funding has left its players competing in a state of confusion, called Justin Rose’s mid-season equipment switch a huge risk at 45, and explained why Aronimink will be a bombers’ delight this week.

Check out the full Q&A below.

Gianni: With the PIF confirming that they’re pulling funding from LIV at the end of the season, what impact do you expect that to have on the LIV players competing at the PGA Championship?

Brandel: I would imagine that they have all been thrown into a state of confusion, and will be distracted, not knowing where they are going to play next year and not knowing exactly their road back to either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour. Or in Rahm’s case, being tied to a sinking ship for the next few years, likely playing for pennies on the dollar in events that no one cares about or watches.

I doubt this would put him in the best frame of mind to compete at his highest level. Keeping in mind, however, that majors are the only time that LIV disciples get to play in events that matter, so never disregard the motivation they have to prove to the world they are still relevant.

Gianni: Justin Rose switched to McLaren Golf equipment mid-season while playing some of the best golf of his career. What do you make of the change?

Brandel: I don’t really know what to make of Rose switching equipment. It seems a huge risk on his part, even though it is likely, in my opinion, that the clubs he’s playing are similar, if not the exact grinds, to what he was playing previously, with a McLaren stamp on them.

Having said that, at best, it is a distraction when he seemed to be as dialed in with his game as any 45-year-old could be and trending in the majors to perhaps do something that would definitely put him in the Hall of Fame. At worst, given the possibility that these clubs aren’t just duplicates of his old set stamped with McLaren on them, he’s made an equipment change that would take time, and 45-year-old athletes don’t have the time to do such things.

Gianni: Aronimink has only hosted a handful of professional events since it hosted the 1962 PGA Championship. What kind of test does it present, and does a course with less recent major championship history tend to level the playing field?

Brandel: Even though Aronimink has only hosted a handful of meaningful professional events, it has been fairly discerning in who can win there. When Keegan Bradley won the BMW Championship on the Donald Ross masterpiece in 2018, he was the 2nd best iron player on tour coming into that week. When Nick Watney won the AT&T at Aronimink in 2011, he was 2nd in strokes gained total coming into the week.

In 2020, Aronimink hosted the KPMG Championship, and Sei Young Kim won. On the LPGA that year, she was first in greens in regulation, putts per green in regulation, and scoring average on the way to being the LPGA player of the year. And then there is the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, who eventually became just one of a few players to win the career grand slam on the way to winning 9 majors. It is a formidable test, and if it’s not softened by rain, it will bring out the best in the upper echelons of the game.

Gianni: Is there a specific hole at Aronimink that you think will do the most to decide the winner?

Brandel: The hardest hole at Aronimink in each of the three tour events that have been played there since 2010 has been the long par-3 8th hole, with the par-4 10th being the second hardest, so most of the carnage will happen around the turn, but with the par-5 16th offering opportunities for bold plays and the tough closing holes at 17 and 18, the finish is likely to be frenetic.

Gianni: The PGA Championship has always sat in the shadow of the other majors. What does the ideal PGA Championship look like in your eyes, and what would it take for it to carve out its own identity?

Brandel: The PGA Championship, to whatever degree it suffers from the comparison to the other three majors, is still counted just as much when adding them up at the end of one’s career. Almost 1/3 of Nicklaus’ major wins were the five PGA Championships he won. Walter Hagen won 11 majors, five of which were PGA Championships.

Tiger Woods twice in his career won back-to-back PGA Championships, and those four majors count just as much as the other 11 he won. The PGA may not have the prestige of the other three, but it carries the same weight. Having said that, I preferred the identity that it had as the last major of the year.

Gianni: You nailed your Masters picks. Rory won, Scottie finished solo second, and Morikawa surged to a tie for seventh. Who are your top 3 picks for the PGA Championship and why?

Brandel: I am not a huge fan of majors played on golf courses that have been shorn of most of the trees, although I understand some of the agronomic reasons for doing so and of course the ease with which it allows members to play after errant drives. However, at the highest level, it all but eliminates any strategy off the tee and turns professional golf into an even bigger slugfest. That means that it will likely be a bomber’s delight this week, but fortunately, Scottie Scheffler is long enough to play that game and straight enough to play it better than anyone else.

The major championships give us very few surprises anymore, going back to the beginning of 2012, so the last 57 majors played, the average world rank of the winners has been better than 15th in the world. So look at the highest ranked and longest drivers who are on form coming into the PGA Championship who also have great short games as the surrounds at Aronimink are very challenging. That’s Scottie Scheffler by a mile and then McIlroy and Cameron Young with a far bigger nod towards DeChambeau than I gave him at the Masters.

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Club Junkie

A putter that I love and hate – Club Junkie Podcast

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In this episode of the Club Junkie Podcast, we dive into one of the most interesting flatstick releases of the year with a full review of the new TaylorMade SYSTM 2 putters. After spending time on the greens, I break down what makes this design stand out, where it performs, and why it has me completely torn between loving it and fighting it. If you are into feel, alignment, and consistency, this is one you will want to hear about.

We also take a look at some of the putters in play on the PGA Tour last week. From familiar favorites to a few surprising setups, there is always something to learn from what the best players in the world are rolling with under pressure.

To wrap things up, I walk through the process of building a set of JP Golf Prime irons paired with Baddazz Gold Series shafts. From component selection to performance goals, this is a deep dive into what goes into creating a unique custom set and why this combo has been so intriguing.

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Opinion & Analysis

From 14 handicap to pro: 4 things I’d tell golfers at 50

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This year my 50th birthday. Gosh, where has the time gone?

As a teenager in rural Missouri, some of my junior high and high school years felt interminable. Graduation seemed light years away. But the older I get, the faster life seems to fly by.

I’m also increasingly aware of my mortality. My dad died recently. Earlier this year, a friend and fellow PGA of America professional and I were texting about our next catch-up. The next message I received was news of his unexpected passing at 48. Shortly after, a woman I dated in college succumbed to cancer at 51.

Certainly, one can share perspective at any age. Seniors help freshmen, veterans guide rookies. But reaching this milestone feels like as good a time as any to do one of those “what would I tell my younger self?” articles.

I’ve had a uniquely varied career in golf. I started as a 27-year-old, average-length-hitting, 14-handicap computer engineer and somehow managed to turn pro before running out of money, constantly bootstrapping my way forward. I’ve won qualifiers and set venue records in the World Long Drive Championships, finished fifth at the Speedgolf World Championships, coached all skill levels as a PGA of America professional, built industry-leading swing speed training programs for Swing Man Golf, helped advance the single-length iron market with Sterling Irons®, caddied on the PGA TOUR and PGA TOUR Champions, and played about 300 courses across 32 countries.

It’s been a ride, and I’ve gone both deep and wide.

So while I can consult and advise from a lot of angles, let me keep it to a few things I’d tell the average golfer who wants to improve.

1. Think About What You Want

Everyone has their own reason for picking up a golf club.

Oddly, as a professional athlete, I’m not internally driven by competition. That can be challenging, as the industry currently prioritizes and incentivizes competition over the love of the game.

For me, I love walking and being outdoors. Nature helps balance my energy. I prefer courses that are integrated into the natural beauty of their surroundings. I’m comfortable practicing alone. I’m a deep thinker, and I genuinely enjoy investigating the game, using data and intuition to unearth unique, often innovative insights. I’m fortunate to be strong and athletic, so I appreciate the chance to engage with my abilities. Traveling feels adventurous. I could go on.

You don’t have to overthink it like I do. For you, it might be as simple as hitting balls to escape work, hanging out with friends, and playing loosely with the rules and the score.

The point is to give yourself permission to play for your own reasons, and let that be enough.

But if improvement is your goal, thinking about your destination—and when you want to get there—is important, because it dictates the steps you need to take. When I set out to go from a 14-handicap to the PGA TOUR as quickly as possible, the steps I needed were very different from those of a working golfer trying to break 90 in six months. That’s also different from someone who just wants a few peaceful hours outside each week, away from work or family.

None of these goals are better than the others, but each requires a different plan that you can work backward from.

2. There Are Lots of Things That Can Work

One of the challenges of golf is that, although there are rules for playing, there aren’t clear, industry-wide standards for how to best play the game. There’s a lot of gray area.

You might hear a top coach or trainer insist that a certain move is the best way to swing or train. Then you dig a bit deeper and, much to your confusion and frustration, another respected coach or trainer says something completely different. I don’t think anyone is trying to confuse you—at least I hope not. It’s just where the industry is right now.

You have to be careful with advice from tournament pros, too. They might be great at scoring, but they’re also human and sometimes just as susceptible as amateurs to believing things that don’t really move the needle. Tour players might describe what they feel, but that’s not always what they’re actually doing when assessed with technology.

I recently ran a test on my YouTube channel (which connects to my GolfWRX article “How to use your hands in the golf swing for power and accuracy”), and, interestingly, two of the most commonly taught hand actions produced the worst results in the test.

Coaches can certainly help. If you find someone you connect with to help navigate, that’s great. But there are many ways to get the ball in the hole. In the current landscape, you may need to seek multiple opinions, think critically, and use your own intuition to discern what seems true and whose advice resonates with you.

I’d recommend seeking someone who is open-minded and always learning, because things constantly change. Absolutes like “correct” or “proper” should raise a red flag. AI can be useful, but it tends to confidently repeat popular advice, so proceed with caution.

3. Get Custom Fit

If you’re serious about becoming a better player, getting custom fit is hugely important. There’s no sense fighting your equipment if you don’t have to. Most better players get fit these days and, if they don’t, they’re usually skilled enough to work around clubs that aren’t ideal.

If you plan to play for a long time, it’s worth spending a little more upfront to get something that truly fits you and your game, rather than continually buying and discarding equipment.

Equipment rules haven’t really changed significantly since the early 2000s. To stay in business, manufacturers keep pushing those limits. If you pull a bunch of clubs and balls off the rack and test them, you’ll find differences. I’ve tested two new drivers and seen a 30-yard total distance gap. Usually, the issue isn’t bad equipment; it’s that the combination of components simply isn’t the best fit.

It’s like wearing a new pair of floppy clown shoes. Sure, they’re shoes—but you won’t sprint your best in them compared to track shoes that fit perfectly.

Be wary of what’s called custom fitting, too. Sometimes the term is used as a marketing strategy rather than an actual fitting. In some retail settings, fitters may be incentivized to steer you toward higher-priced components. That doesn’t automatically mean it’s not the best fit, but you should be aware of potential biases.

I learned a version of this lesson outside of golf. Years ago, I bought a tennis racquet at a big box store from a seemingly knowledgeable employee who thought it would suit me best. The racquet gave me tennis elbow, and I spent months recovering with rest and acupuncture. The next season, I invested more time and money to find what actually fit me, and I walked away with something amazing that I still play with years later.

So if you’re going to get fit, be smart about it.

Find someone you believe has deep knowledge—possibly with certifications, but not necessarily. Make sure there’s a wide inventory across many brands. Check recent reviews for the individual fitter if possible. Make sure you trust that the fitter has your best interests at heart. If they’re wearing a hat or shirt with a specific brand’s logo, proceed with caution. Unless you specifically want a certain brand or look, be wary of upsells, especially if two options perform nearly the same.

Also, while golf is called a sport of integrity, there’s a thread of manipulation in the industry. I once drafted an equipment article for an industry magazine, structured just like one of their previous popular stories, with matching word count and great photos. The assistant editor loved it; it was useful to readers and required little work on his part. But the editor-in-chief nixed the story. When I asked why, I was told it was because I wasn’t an advertiser. It turned out the article I’d modeled mine after was a paid ad cleverly disguised as editorial content.

I really dislike games, clickbait, and fear-based manipulation. I hope this changes, but golfers deserve to know it exists.

4. Distance and Strategy Matter

There’s a real relationship between how far you hit the ball and your scoring average, even at the PGA TOUR level.

I experienced this early in my pro career. I started as a power hitter, swinging in the high 120s and breaking 200 mph ball speed with a stock driver.

Back then, some instructors advised swinging at 80%, so I tried slowing down for more accuracy. That worked fine on shorter, tighter courses. But on longer setups, I was coming into greens with too much club, and par 5s stopped being

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